Blogs

  • Special Details Regarding Stock Picking Process

    Nearly a month ago, my trading partner shared some details regarding his stock picking process and explained how this process will assist in achieving far superior returns; well, the proof is being delivered today. The reason I’m sharing this is...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-01-2016
  • Global Bonds In Worst Selloff In 13 Years - How Come?

    Bond investors have had a rough ride in November. The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index plunged by 5% during the last two weeks just before and after the election – its worst such drop since March 2003, according to Dow Jones data. When yields rise, bond prices fall, and vice-versa.

    As you know, interest rates have been falling for over 35 years since peaking in 1980. It has been a spectacular bull market for bond investors, that is until just recently. To say that the reversal over the last few weeks came as a surprise to bondholders around the world is an understatement.

    More than $77 billion in assets are benchmarked to the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, according to Morningstar, making it one of the most widely followed in the fixed-income world. It incorporates investment-grade debt denominated in 24 different currencies. Sovereign bonds have historically been the Index’s most heavily-weighted constituent, followed by asset-backed securities, corporate bonds and government-related debt.

    Global bond yields have been edging up since falling to historic lows in late June/July following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. But the selloff accelerated aggressively after Donald Trump won the US presidential election – an outcome that took most bond market participants around the world by surprise.

    The sharp selloff was predicated on the notion that Donald Trump’s campaign promises to rebuild America’s infrastructure, cut taxes and raise trade barriers, would – if they become reality – drive up inflation, and possibly force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates much more aggressively than had been expected.

    In just the two days following Trump’s election, global bonds shed an estimated $1.1 trillion in value, the worst rout in a year and a half as investors sold bonds and bought stocks in many cases. The stampede out of bonds propelled US Treasury yields to their highest levels since January.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-22-2016
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  • Trump's Financial Revolution!

    A financial revolution is now taking place and I want to tell you the story. It has rather large implications for interest rates, the stock market, gold and real estate. The only reasons for the DOW JONES sharp gains, post-election, is due to the fact...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 11-22-2016
  • How The Media Blew The Election & What To Watch For Just Ahead

    As long-time clients and readers know, I have kept a fairly low political profile as we moved through this year’s election season, as opposed to previous years when I was an outspoken supporter for the conservative candidates.

    One reason is that, like many of you, I didn’t care much for either candidate. I did go on the record a few weeks ago saying that I did not want to see the Clintons return to the White House, which made me a reluctant Trump supporter. In light of Trump’s surprise thrashing of Hillary in the Electoral College, I will offer some personal thoughts on the election today.

    Following that, I have reprinted the very best analysis I have seen on how and why the election turned out as it did. This excellent article was written by Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal. Kim has become one of my favorite writers in recent years, so I trust you will enjoy her keen analysis on why the election went to Trump. (Hint: She argues that it was President Obama who is primarily responsible for Trump’s victory.)

    Next I’ll add some parting thoughts on how the media got this election so very wrong. I will also add some thoughts on what we should be watching for just ahead to help us get a read on what kind of president Donald Trump may be.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-16-2016
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  • Chinese PMI Soars Higher!

    * Global growth hopes return!. * A$ gets double boost! * Gold pushes higher!. * More bad data for Japan!.

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-02-2016
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  • Stock Markets Look To Favor Hillary Clinton In This Election

    Historically speaking, the US stock markets (ie – Wall Street) have reliably favored Republicans in presidential elections, but this year looks different. In fact, in almost every case back to 1880, US equity markets have risen when Republicans win presidential...
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  • 3Q GDP Report Came In Better Than Expected At 2.9%

    We will touch on several bases today. I must admit that it was so tempting to devote today’s E-Letter to a discussion about the presidential election one week from today, especially with all the recent twists and turns in this race.

    But the fact is, these are two of the worst presidential candidates I can ever remember. So I’ll spare you my political thoughts today. I do have an interesting section below on which US presidents have been best for the economy dating back to President Eisenhower in 1953. Hint: President Obama ranks dead last!

    Following that discussion, we’ll take a look at the global bond market which has taken a hit over the last couple of months. Bonds worldwide lost almost 3% in October alone, the largest monthly loss since May 2013. The question is whether this is just a “correction” or the beginning of a new trend?

    Before we get into those discussions, let’s take a look at last Friday’s stronger than expected GDP report for the 3Q. The advance report showed growth well above the pre-report consensus. Most analysts concluded that the door is now wide open for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates in December. I’ll give you my latest thoughts as we go along today.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-02-2016
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  • Is The Fed Delaying The Day Of Reckoning?

    The FED and the Corporate World understand that there is NO economic recovery. They need to keep feeding this ‘bull market’ with plenty of accommodative easing or this ‘bull’ will die. The FED will do whatever it takes to maintain...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 10-11-2016
  • Are U.S Banks Safer Today Than They Were In 2008?

    Although the seeds of the 2008 ‘financial crisis’ were sown at a much earlier period of time, the banking institutions continued to reap the benefits of ‘easy money’ until the financial crisis of 2008 negatively impacted the economy...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 10-11-2016
  • Massive Chinese debt and why they are on a gold buying binge!

    China’s debt is a staggering $24 trillion with 247% of annual GDP as of last year, which is, in fact, an increase of an astounding 465%, within a decade. The total borrowing, by both the financial and non-financial sectors, was only 78% of the GDP...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-28-2016
  • FED Goes from ZIRP to NIRP!

    The FED has not followed through on their numerous promises of a rate increase that Yellen and other FED officials have made over the past several years. She spoke about purchasing assets of private companies and also mentioned that the FED could modify...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-28-2016
  • Trump/Clinton Economic Plans Revisited, Extremely Different

    For the last several years, the economy has ranked #1 among the greatest concerns expressed by most Americans. And as we all know, the state of the economy has a huge bearing on the investment markets. With that in mind, let’s take a look today at the latest economic and tax proposals of the two presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

    Both candidates have made tweaks and changes to their economic and tax plans in recent weeks, and both have made more details available about how their plans should work. But even with the latest changes, both candidates’ plans are night-and-day different.

    Finally, if you are an “Accredited Investor” you need to let us know as soon as possible. One of the best alternative investments we’ve ever seen is expected to close to new investment very soon. This unique investment fund is only available to Accredited Investors, so if you would like to take a look at it before it closes forever, be sure to let us know if you qualify.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 09-27-2016
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  • Clear And Present Danger!

    The cycle since 2009 has been different from other market cycles, throughout history, in only one significant manner. That having been said, it is the Global Central Banks that have intentionally pushed interest rates to zero and below. This encouraged...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-23-2016
  • Will your investments hold up over for the next financial crisis, which will be far worse than 2008/09?

    We are living in “extraordinary ” times, which will end with unpleasant consequences. The world is looking towards the Central Banks to sort out these problems, whereas, the Central Banks are clueless about how to handle this situation. Never...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-15-2016
  • Negative Rates Nail Savers

    Before we jump in, I want to note that economic chaos is not my only concern. We face a whole different kind of chaos on the geopolitical front. To a considerable degree it overlaps with the economic problems I’ll discuss today. George Friedman has been calling the Eurasian landmass a “cradle of disorder.” It’s home to 5 billion people, and it’s floundering in a sea of accelerating crises.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-14-2016
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