Gary D. Halbert

  • "How America Lost Its Mojo" - Some Troubling Trends

    In my business, I read a lot more than the average American, in large part due to my “speed-reading” training in college. Most of what I read is about the economy, markets, financial matters, world events and yes, politics among other topics.

    I especially enjoy reading well-written articles on shifting demographic trends in the US and around the globe, which give us insights regarding what the country and the world might look like in 10-20 years. I recently read just such an article on the rapidly changing demographics in America and their long-term implications.

    After thinking about it for several weeks, I decided to reprint it for you today. I think you will find it very interesting.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-19-2016
  • Treasury Yields Hit Record Lows – Global Flight To Safety

    It is so, so tempting to write about Hillary Clinton’s latest news today that I can hardly stand it. We had Bill Clinton’s “chance” meeting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch at the Phoenix airport last Thursday. Then the FBI...
    Filed under: ,
  • Stocks At Record High, Treasuries At Record Low - A Rarity

    Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow have cruised to new record highs over the last week. Treasury yields on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds moved to all-time record lows last week. Historically, these two things rarely happen at the same time. In fact, the S&P 500 has hit a record high when the 10-year Treasury note yield was below 2% only once in the last 40 years.

    The fact that stocks are at new highs and Treasury yields are at new lows is largely due to red-hot foreign demand for US securities. There are continued worries about the UK and Europe in the wake of "Brexit" and rising concerns about China's economy. With negative interest rates spreading around the world, foreign investors are gobbling up Treasuries which still have positive yields and adding US equities as well. Some say this is the "New Normal." But is it?

    That's what we'll talk about today.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-12-2016
    Filed under: , ,
  • Is "Brexit" The Beginning of the End For European Union?

    Just about everywhere I go lately people ask me what I think about “BREXIT” and the ramifications it will have for Great Britain, Europe and even the United States. My standard answer since the vote on June 23 is that I don’t think about it much.

    The reason is that, other than the vote itself wherein the “Leave” crowd won 52%-48% over the “Remain” crowd, nothing else has happened to make Brexit the law of the land, and may not happen for months to come. British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the day after the vote didn’t go his way, but offered to stay on until October if need be to find a replacement.

    In order to officially initiate its withdrawal from the European Union, Britain must invoke “Article 50” of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty with the EU, and it now looks likely that such a notification won’t happen until after the new Prime Minister is in office. And then withdrawal from the EU is a two-year process after that.

    I last wrote about Brexit on Thursday, June 23, the day of the referendum, in my Blog. At that time, I noted that some of the final polls showed a slim lead for the Leave crowd. I also noted that the Leave crowd in Britain is part of a “global anti-establishment movement” that is growing around the world – which has brought us the likes of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

    While the Brexit outcome roiled the global equity markets for the first couple of days following the vote, some of those losses have been recovered. Frankly, I expect Brexit will fall out of the headlines soon, if it hasn’t already, and the media attention for the rest of this month will be on the GOP convention on July 18-21 and the Democratic convention on July 25-28.

    Nevertheless, I will give you my thoughts and those from others I read on Brexit as we go along today. Just keep in mind that we don’t have any idea when Brexit will happen, under what terms it will happen or even if it will happen at all.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-06-2016
    Filed under: ,
  • "BREXIT" - Should They Stay Or Should They Go?

    The citizens of Great Britain will make a monumental decision that will be felt worldwide if they vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week on June 23. If the Brits vote for “Brexit” it could eventually lead to the end of the EU and the euro. It could potentially lead to serious turmoil in the world financial markets in the days and weeks following the referendum if the vote is to leave.

    Yet if Brexit passes, it does not mean that Britain will leave the EU immediately. We are told that there will be a transitionary period which could last a year or longer. Maybe this will limit the potential turmoil in the markets, but that’s far from certain. In any event, I think most Americans should understand the long-range implications of next week’s key vote.

    I have read a great deal about what may happen if the Brits vote to leave the EU. It is clear that Brexit is part of a groundswell of dislike around the developed world for all things “Establishment.”  This growing trend also explains in part why characters like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders did so well in the election primaries.

    To help us understand these trends and the important implications, I have chosen to reprint a very good analysis on this subject today. It appeared in TIME Magazine online last Friday and is written by Frank Luntz.  Mr. Luntz is a well-known political analyst, professional pollster, author and contributor to CBS News and the Fox News Channel among others.

    You should read it. I will be writing more on this key topic in the weeks and months ahead.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-15-2016
    Filed under: , ,
  • More Young Adults Live With Parents Than Ever Before

    A new report from the Pew Research Center this week found that American adults aged 18 to 34 were more likely to be living in their parents’ home than living with a spouse or partner in their own household. The report, based on Census Bureau data...
    Filed under: ,
  • Fed: Almost Half of US Households Have Under $400 Saved

    We begin today by looking at the recently released Federal Reserve study on the economic conditions of 50,000 randomly-selected US households. This annual survey attempts to capture a snapshot of the financial and economic well-being (or not well-being) of US households. Let me warn you upfront that some of the findings are really bad.

    Following that discussion, I will reprint a recent study by FORBES which concludes that Americans who make over $100,000 pay almost 80% of all federal income taxes. That’s right. According to IRS data, Americans earning over $100,000 paid 79.5% of federal income taxes for 2014. This proves that top income earners pay more in income taxes than those who earn less.

    Finally, I have two great opinion pieces in SPECIAL ARTICLES at the end that everyone should read, regardless of who you will be voting for in November.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 05-31-2016
    Filed under: , ,
  • Gun Sales In America Hit Another Record In March

    Sales of firearms in the US hit an all-time record in March, but that’s not really a surprise since monthly sales of guns have broken the previous record for 11 consecutive months . This year (2016) is widely expected to be the largest year for...
    Filed under:
  • Second-Longest Bull Market Ever, Yet Investors Remain Skittish

    If the US stock markets don’t collapse between now and Friday, this will be the second-longest bull market on record. Really. The current bull market began in March 2009 and will have lasted for 2,608 days (7.2 years) on Friday. If so, it will top the former second-longest bull market which ran from 1949 to 1956 (2,607 days). That’s quite impressive.

    Yet despite the stock market’s very impressive returns since the end of the Great Recession, American investors have unloaded stocks at a near-record pace. According to a new Gallup poll, only just over half of American households say they currently have any money invested in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in the poll’s 19-year history.

    The latest Gallup poll found that only 52% of American households have any money invested in stocks (individual stocks, equity mutual funds, ETFs, etc.), down from a high of 65% in late 2007. Unfortunately, young people are the ones with the lowest investment in stocks. There’s a lot to talk about on this subject.

    Yet before we get to that discussion, I want to bring to your attention a new report which found that almost half (45%) of Americans now pay zero in federal income taxes, according to the Tax Policy Center. The reasons may surprise you. Let’s get started.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 04-26-2016
    Filed under: ,
  • The Unprecedented Real Estate Bubble In China

    Most economists and financial writers agree that the US has the strongest economy among the developed nations, even though we’re only growing at about 2%. Despite the slow growth, most don’t believe we are facing a recession anytime soon. However, most economists and financial writers also agree that a serious external shock could quickly throw the US economy into a recession and take most of the rest of the world with it.

    The question is, what kind of a shock might it be? Some point to Greece, others to Brazil, both of which have flirted with bankruptcy. Others worry about a hard landing for China’s economy, which some fear would be enough to throw the US economy into a recession.

    Yet there is another totally different risk in China that most Americans know nothing about. It’s the bubble in Chinese real estate. Chinese citizens are up to their eyeballs in real estate and almost nothing else. Prices have skyrocketed in recent years into what some are calling a giant bubble.

    If that bubble bursts and home prices plummet, millions of Chinese would see their net worth evaporate.

    This problem is much larger and potentially more devastating than most economists and forecasters realize. My clients and readers need to know about this, so that’s what we will talk about today. But before we do, let’s take a look at the latest economic news out of China from last Friday.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 04-21-2016
    Filed under:
  • Emerging Nations Continue To See Huge Capital Outflows

    If you are wondering why the global economy struggled last year and so far this year, one only has to look at the trend in capital flows of emerging nations. After decades of positive capital inflows to most emerging economies, that trend has reversed sharply in the last few years.

    Net capital outflows from emerging markets (EM) weren’t just bigger than expected last year, there’s more pain to come this year, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) which monitors such data.

    Emerging markets faced a whopping net $735 billion in net capital outflows in 2015, the IIF, a global financial industry association, reported earlier this year. In October of last year, the IIF had projected $540 billion in net outflows in 2015, the first significant net negative figure since 1988. But in the end, the total outflow was almost $200 billion higher.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 04-12-2016
  • Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Cuts Number of Rate Hikes Ahead

    As was widely expected, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0.25%-0.50% yesterday. What was surprising in the statement and the projections was the fact that the Committee cut in half the projected number of rates...
    Filed under: ,
  • Foreign Governments Dump US Debt At Record Pace

    I have been traveling the last few days, so I will reprint two of the more interesting articles I ran across in the last week. We’ll start with an article from CNN which confirms that numerous foreign governments are unloading US Treasury debt at a record pace.

    This includes China, the largest holder of our debt, which became a huge seller of Treasuries last year. We will also look at some of the reasons why foreign central banks are dumping Treasuries, many like never before.

    We will finish today with a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit which has a list of the nine largest risks facing the world today, and how likely each of them is to happen. It is an interesting report, although I would have a few other risks to add to the list.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-22-2016
    Filed under: ,
  • Will The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not

    The Federal Reserve’s policy setting body, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), is meeting today and tomorrow, and there is widespread speculation over whether or not the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate a second time since lift-off in December.

    Late last year the Fed signaled that it intended to raise the Fed Funds rate four times in 2016, most likely at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings. Yet the Fed could not have anticipated the global stock market debacle that ensued at the beginning of this year and into February.

    Given the large and unexpected global equity sell-off we saw in January and early February, most Fed-watchers recently concluded that the FOMC would abandon its plans to hike rates four times this year. Many even speculated that the Fed might reverse course and lower the Fed Funds rate back to near zero. Some even suggested the Fed should implement another round of quantitative easing (QE).

    I have been among those who have suggested the Fed should delay any further interest rate hikes until the economy shows more signs of improvement. However, a recent economic report will make it much harder for the Fed to delay another rate hike tomorrow. That will be our main topic today.

    Following that discussion, I’ll have more to say about negative interest rates, the War On Cash and a summary of Stratfor.com’s latest analysis regarding this very concerning global trend. Let’s get started.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-15-2016
    Filed under: , ,
  • Negative Interest Rate Policy & The War On Cash

    We are living in strange and unprecedented times to say the least. Interest rates on bank deposits have gone into negative territory across much of Europe and more recently Japan. While we have yet to see negative savings rates in the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently warned that NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) is on the table if the economy slips.

    Yet the truth is that NIRP is not working as intended.  I’ll tell you why as we go along today.

    Meanwhile, monetary policy leaders and liberal politicians are increasingly waging a war on cash. Specifically, left-leaning policymakers in Europe and more recently the US want to make it harder for their citizens to hold large amounts of cash. To do so, they have called for the elimination of large-denominated treasury notes such as the €500 bill and the US $100 bill.

    The promoters of the war on cash claim that large-denominated euros and greenbacks are used primarily by criminals, drug dealers, tax cheats, terrorists and bad people in general. They claim that law-abiding citizens around the world have little use for these large-denomination treasury notes and would have little resistance to their elimination over time.

    What these left-leaning groups don’t admit is that it is their goal, ultimately, to eliminate cash altogether over time and convert us to digital currencies which can be used to track all of our transactions, at least those over certain defined amounts.

    Since these two alarming trends are getting very little attention in the mainstream media, that’s what we’ll talk about today. I want my clients and readers to know what is happening and why. Let’s start with NIRP.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-24-2016
    Filed under: ,
1 2 3 4 5 Next > ... Last »