Blogs

  • President Obama’s Legacy – Weaken America For Eight Years

    If you have read me for very long, you know a few things about my political leanings, which I don’t hesitate to espouse now and then. I’m a free-market conservative that believes in smaller government, balanced budgets and lower taxes, just...
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  • Yellen Cuts Off Currency Rally..

    In This Issue.

    * Full Employment? .

    * Chuck goes old school economics .

    * ECB meets today.

    * China sells more Treasuries! .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 01-19-2017
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  • Howard Marks on Expert Opinion

    In a week when I have once more gone out on the old limb, in last weekend’s Thoughts from the Frontline, to bring you my forecast for the new year, and when I’m also sharing with readers of my Over My Shoulder service the tea-leaf skryings of some of the boldest and brightest among my fellow economic prognosticators, I’m feeling a need to use today’s Outside the Box to redress the balance a bit.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 01-19-2017
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  • Forecasting with Friends

    In some ways, I think it’s just entertainment. You might compare our prognosticating to what happens with NFL football. For weeks before the Super Bowl, we devoted fans will spend hours speculating on the game’s every detail. We’ll dissect the rosters, talk about each team’s strengths and weaknesses, debate game plans, and so on. Is any of this ritual necessary or useful? No, but it extends the experience and we enjoy it.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-19-2017
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  • Small Business Optimism Soars to Highest Level Since 2004

    Small businesses and entrepreneurs have had a rough time of it for these past eight years. New startups and entrepreneurial activity have pretty much been stagnant, weighed down by heavy regulation, high taxes and an economy that’s just been stumbling along. Yet in November and again December, there were signs of optimism and business renewal that could mark a real turnaround in the fortunes of small business.

    The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported last week that its Small Business Optimism Index soared in December by the most in one month since 1980, a year when another maverick conservative-leaning candidate surprised everyone and won the presidency. His name was Ronald Reagan.

    Another report out last week found that small businesses are now in the best financial shape since before the Great Recession based on revenues, cash-flows and sales.

    While the economy is still far from healthy, we have seen more positive news since the election. Today we’ll look at these two latest reports on small businesses -- and what President Trump will, and will not, be able to do with regard to rolling back onerous regulations early-on in his administration.

    Finally, we’ll look at an Investor’s Business Daily editorial last week that blows out of the water the liberals’ scare tactics when it comes to repealing Obamacare.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 01-19-2017
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  • Another Price Setup with Oil and Gas Stock

    One of the key tenants of my Momentum Reversal trading is “waiting for the right trigger/event and getting in early”. I find this is one of the most difficult aspects for most clients to understand and master. Therefore, in an attempt to further...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-18-2017
  • Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

    My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility. The VIX is a measurement of the expected market...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-13-2017
  • Stocks and Commodities Going Up & Up

    Chris Vermeulen and his partner John Winston are very savvy traders and even they were taken by surprise by the stock market’s Trump rally. Especially by its strength and ferocity and he sees no immediate end in site. It could go on and on. But...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-13-2017
  • The Short-Term TOP & POP!

    Currently, it is still very early days and the dust has not yet settled, however, I will make a bold forecast that the SPX is still in a BULL UPTREND from 2009. There has been a paradigm shift in the U.S. after Trump’s election. The expected fiscal...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-07-2016
  • Special Details Regarding Stock Picking Process

    Nearly a month ago, my trading partner shared some details regarding his stock picking process and explained how this process will assist in achieving far superior returns; well, the proof is being delivered today. The reason I’m sharing this is...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-01-2016
  • Global Bonds In Worst Selloff In 13 Years - How Come?

    Bond investors have had a rough ride in November. The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index plunged by 5% during the last two weeks just before and after the election – its worst such drop since March 2003, according to Dow Jones data. When yields rise, bond prices fall, and vice-versa.

    As you know, interest rates have been falling for over 35 years since peaking in 1980. It has been a spectacular bull market for bond investors, that is until just recently. To say that the reversal over the last few weeks came as a surprise to bondholders around the world is an understatement.

    More than $77 billion in assets are benchmarked to the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, according to Morningstar, making it one of the most widely followed in the fixed-income world. It incorporates investment-grade debt denominated in 24 different currencies. Sovereign bonds have historically been the Index’s most heavily-weighted constituent, followed by asset-backed securities, corporate bonds and government-related debt.

    Global bond yields have been edging up since falling to historic lows in late June/July following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. But the selloff accelerated aggressively after Donald Trump won the US presidential election – an outcome that took most bond market participants around the world by surprise.

    The sharp selloff was predicated on the notion that Donald Trump’s campaign promises to rebuild America’s infrastructure, cut taxes and raise trade barriers, would – if they become reality – drive up inflation, and possibly force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates much more aggressively than had been expected.

    In just the two days following Trump’s election, global bonds shed an estimated $1.1 trillion in value, the worst rout in a year and a half as investors sold bonds and bought stocks in many cases. The stampede out of bonds propelled US Treasury yields to their highest levels since January.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-22-2016
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  • Trump's Financial Revolution!

    A financial revolution is now taking place and I want to tell you the story. It has rather large implications for interest rates, the stock market, gold and real estate. The only reasons for the DOW JONES sharp gains, post-election, is due to the fact...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 11-22-2016
  • How The Media Blew The Election & What To Watch For Just Ahead

    As long-time clients and readers know, I have kept a fairly low political profile as we moved through this year’s election season, as opposed to previous years when I was an outspoken supporter for the conservative candidates.

    One reason is that, like many of you, I didn’t care much for either candidate. I did go on the record a few weeks ago saying that I did not want to see the Clintons return to the White House, which made me a reluctant Trump supporter. In light of Trump’s surprise thrashing of Hillary in the Electoral College, I will offer some personal thoughts on the election today.

    Following that, I have reprinted the very best analysis I have seen on how and why the election turned out as it did. This excellent article was written by Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal. Kim has become one of my favorite writers in recent years, so I trust you will enjoy her keen analysis on why the election went to Trump. (Hint: She argues that it was President Obama who is primarily responsible for Trump’s victory.)

    Next I’ll add some parting thoughts on how the media got this election so very wrong. I will also add some thoughts on what we should be watching for just ahead to help us get a read on what kind of president Donald Trump may be.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-16-2016
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  • Chinese PMI Soars Higher!

    * Global growth hopes return!. * A$ gets double boost! * Gold pushes higher!. * More bad data for Japan!.

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-02-2016
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  • Stock Markets Look To Favor Hillary Clinton In This Election

    Historically speaking, the US stock markets (ie – Wall Street) have reliably favored Republicans in presidential elections, but this year looks different. In fact, in almost every case back to 1880, US equity markets have risen when Republicans win presidential...
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