Blogs

  • Hard Headed Traders!

    In This Issue.

    * Positive yield currencies get whacked!.

    * But currencies attempt to rebound today.

    * When will Markets admit they were wrong?

    * The Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment"..

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 09-14-2016
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  • The US Economy Is Nowhere Near “Full Employment”

    The official unemployment rate in the US has now been below 5% for four consecutive months. I mentioned in my E-Letter on Tuesday that some economists and members of the Fed believe the economy is approaching what is referred to as “full employment...
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  • Almost Six Million Unfilled Jobs In America - Question Is Why?

    On Wednesday of last week, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were a record 5.9 million unfilled job openings in America as of the end of July. Unless you are a news junkie like myself, this number may well come as a surprise to you. And the reasons why we have such a huge number of unfilled jobs may also come as a surprise.

    With our official unemployment rate at 4.9%, we know that the labor markets have improved significantly in recent years. It’s great that US businesses are hiring, but these record numbers of job openings are also a sign that business owners can’t find the skilled workers qualified to fill the jobs they have available. We’ll find out why as we go along today.

    Before we get to that discussion, let’s briefly review two decidedly disappointing reports for August -- the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index. We’ll also look at another key report which significantly surprised on the upside. Let’s get started.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 09-14-2016
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  • Silver Will Be A Top Performing Asset In The Next Financial Crisis

    The much awaited Jackson Hole speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen - and the subsequent nonfarm payrolls data failed to ignite the prospects of a rate hike this September of 2016. The market now forecasts only a 21% probability of a rate hike in this...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-12-2016
  • The Green Bond Market Continues To Grow Rapidly For Investors

    If a bond has a negative yield, then the bondholders will lose their money on their investment. In the long run, their expectations are lower and consequently they lose the incentive to invest — which may have far-reaching repercussions. Green Bonds...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-31-2016
  • The Power of Price Spikes On Intraday Charts

    Last week ended on a very positive note for those who follow and trade filtered price spikes . What is a filtered price spike? In short, I scan pre-market, and post-market trading hours’ price charts of SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD, and GDX for a very special...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-29-2016
  • How Extreme Oversold Markets Can Be Profitable

    The trading week was starting to look as though it was going to end without any excitement. Wow, did that ever change on Friday! On Wednesday Aug 24 th , the stock market sold off to a level which I consider to be an extreme oversold condition for the...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-26-2016
  • Weapons of Economic Misdirection

    Patrick and Robert co-edit our Macro Growth & Income Alert premium service. As I’ve explained before, for regulatory reasons (since I am registered) I do not discuss specific stocks or other securities in this letter, tending instead to stick to macroeconomic and other big-picture concepts. Patrick and Robert face no such limitations, so after we discuss the macro world, I will drop off and they will talk about how to turn our macro views into real-world investment ideas. I am proud of the team we have assembled here at Mauldin Economics and appreciate the hard work and experience they bring to our readers.

    ...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-26-2016
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  • Weekend Edition: How to Profit From These Massive, Brexit-Induced Trends

    By Justin Spittler Editor's note : Yesterday , Casey Research founder Doug Casey shared his thoughts on the Brexit. Today, in part two, he lays out the major trends the Brexit will accelerate…and explains how you can set yourself up to profit...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 08-26-2016
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  • Fed Continues to Overstate the Growth of the Economy – Why?

    Two prominent Fed officials gave major speeches over the last week, and both suggested that the US economy will surge in the second half of this year. Both indicated that this newfound growth in the previously moribund economy means the Fed will raise...
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  • Waiting On Janet.

    In This Issue.

    * Another "no movement" day.

    * Traders await Janet Yellen's speech .

    * German IFO stumbles post BREXIT.

    * China issues warning on steel production .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 08-26-2016
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  • Stock Market Is Crazy and Crazy Means Opportunity!

    The SPX has completed its’ “Broadening Topping Pattern” …the next trend is DOWNWARDS! The current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand. I fully believe both in patterns and indicators and right now the current...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-25-2016
  • The World’s Monetary System Is Broken & Costing Overseas Business

    Low and negative yields mean that no one has the confidence to invest in real capital projects. Investors would much rather lose money over a 10-year horizon than invest in building dams, repairing pipes, creating better grids, starting new businesses...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-24-2016
  • US Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why

    The Labor Department reported earlier this month that US worker productivity, which measures hourly worker output, declined for the third consecutive quarter at the end of June, the worst showing since the late 1970s. The productivity rate also declined for the 12 months ended June. This news came as a surprise to most forecasters who were sure that the productivity rate would have snapped back strongly in the 2Q.

    There is near-universal agreement among economists that worker productivity is the most important determinant in whether our incomes and living standards rise or fall over the years. If productivity continues to fall, the economy will be hamstrung, incomes will stagnate and our living standards will deteriorate in the years ahead.

    Interestingly, there is not near-universal agreement on what is causing the current extended period of falling productivity, nor what should be done to reverse this critical trend. Today I will devote this space to explaining why productivity is moving in the wrong direction and what should, and should not, be done about it.

    Given the enormous impact productivity has on our economy, our incomes and our living standards, I would hope that more Americans understand this issue better before they head to the polls in what will be the most critical presidential election in many years. Therefore, feel free to forward today’s E-Letter to as many people as you see fit.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-23-2016
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  • How To Spot An Oversold Stock Market

    All traders have found their own mix of technical analysis indicators and price action which they feel provides them with a good feel for when the stock market is oversold and overbought. Let’s face it, as traders, we see the market is a different...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-22-2016
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