Blogs

  • How You Could Make 10, 20, Even 50 Times Your Money in the Coming Gold Mania

    By Doug Casey Regular readers know why I believe the gold price is poised to move from its current level of $1,250 per ounce to $1,500…$2,000…and eventually past $3,000. Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 03-23-2016
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  • 70 Is the New 65

    As some of us know far too well, forecasting the future with any precision is extremely difficult. There’s at least one exception to the rule, though. Population trends show themselves decades and even centuries in advance. If we know how many people were born in a given year, we can extrapolate what the population will look like far in the future.

    On the other hand, demographic forecasting still requires assumptions. At what age will people start having children, and how many will they have? How will new medical advances affect life spans? When will people start working, stop working, and enter retirement? Small changes in any of those assumptions can quickly affect population numbers.

    Today’s Outside the Box wrestles with that last question. In the United States we allowed the federal government to set 65 as the retirement age by making Social Security available to most workers at that point in their lives. The retirement age is going up to 67 for the younger members of the Baby Boom generation, but even that may be too “young” to retire in the future.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 03-23-2016
  • Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Cuts Number of Rate Hikes Ahead

    As was widely expected, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0.25%-0.50% yesterday. What was surprising in the statement and the projections was the fact that the Committee cut in half the projected number of rates...
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  • Foreign Governments Dump US Debt At Record Pace

    I have been traveling the last few days, so I will reprint two of the more interesting articles I ran across in the last week. We’ll start with an article from CNN which confirms that numerous foreign governments are unloading US Treasury debt at a record pace.

    This includes China, the largest holder of our debt, which became a huge seller of Treasuries last year. We will also look at some of the reasons why foreign central banks are dumping Treasuries, many like never before.

    We will finish today with a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit which has a list of the nine largest risks facing the world today, and how likely each of them is to happen. It is an interesting report, although I would have a few other risks to add to the list.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-22-2016
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  • Casson Media Group Offers Investment Opportunity

    Casson Media Group, Inc., a Dallas-based company, has been delivering investment marketing and database services to the Financial Community since early 2000. Shortly after Congress passed the JOBS Act of 2012 Mike Casson, President and CEO observed that...
  • Invest Like A VC

    Casson Media Group, Inc. introduced a new, no cost weekly video series, Invest Like A VC. With the passage of the JOBS Act of 2012 startup and small private companies can now publicly solicit for capital. This is the most significant change in the securities...
  • Will The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not

    The Federal Reserve’s policy setting body, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), is meeting today and tomorrow, and there is widespread speculation over whether or not the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate a second time since lift-off in December.

    Late last year the Fed signaled that it intended to raise the Fed Funds rate four times in 2016, most likely at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings. Yet the Fed could not have anticipated the global stock market debacle that ensued at the beginning of this year and into February.

    Given the large and unexpected global equity sell-off we saw in January and early February, most Fed-watchers recently concluded that the FOMC would abandon its plans to hike rates four times this year. Many even speculated that the Fed might reverse course and lower the Fed Funds rate back to near zero. Some even suggested the Fed should implement another round of quantitative easing (QE).

    I have been among those who have suggested the Fed should delay any further interest rate hikes until the economy shows more signs of improvement. However, a recent economic report will make it much harder for the Fed to delay another rate hike tomorrow. That will be our main topic today.

    Following that discussion, I’ll have more to say about negative interest rates, the War On Cash and a summary of Stratfor.com’s latest analysis regarding this very concerning global trend. Let’s get started.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-15-2016
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  • The Fed Prepares to Dive

    This week’s letter has two parts. The first deals with some of the practical aspects of negative rates and what the Fed is really signaling. The second part, which is somewhat philosophical, deals with why the Fed will institute negative rates during the next recession. This letter is longer than usual, but I think it’s important to understand why we will see negative rates in the world’s reserve currency (and the currency in which most global trade is conducted). This policy trend is truly a foray into unexplored territory.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-29-2016
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  • Negative Interest Rate Policy & The War On Cash

    We are living in strange and unprecedented times to say the least. Interest rates on bank deposits have gone into negative territory across much of Europe and more recently Japan. While we have yet to see negative savings rates in the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently warned that NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) is on the table if the economy slips.

    Yet the truth is that NIRP is not working as intended.  I’ll tell you why as we go along today.

    Meanwhile, monetary policy leaders and liberal politicians are increasingly waging a war on cash. Specifically, left-leaning policymakers in Europe and more recently the US want to make it harder for their citizens to hold large amounts of cash. To do so, they have called for the elimination of large-denominated treasury notes such as the €500 bill and the US $100 bill.

    The promoters of the war on cash claim that large-denominated euros and greenbacks are used primarily by criminals, drug dealers, tax cheats, terrorists and bad people in general. They claim that law-abiding citizens around the world have little use for these large-denomination treasury notes and would have little resistance to their elimination over time.

    What these left-leaning groups don’t admit is that it is their goal, ultimately, to eliminate cash altogether over time and convert us to digital currencies which can be used to track all of our transactions, at least those over certain defined amounts.

    Since these two alarming trends are getting very little attention in the mainstream media, that’s what we’ll talk about today. I want my clients and readers to know what is happening and why. Let’s start with NIRP.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-24-2016
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  • Obama’s $10 Per Barrel Oil Tax Would Increase Price By 33%

    The Obama administration announced last week that it is seeking a new $10 per barrel tax on oil. The huge tax increase is aimed at energy companies that will surely pass this increased cost directly on to consumers. At $30 a barrel, the $10 tax amounts...
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  • Exploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control

    Today I want to address the soaring costs of healthcare, which are rising far more than the Obama administration and the Department of Health and Human Services will admit. While I personally don’t consider healthcare costs to be a political issue, many argue that it is indeed a political issue with regard to “Obamacare.”

    When talking to friends and colleagues, the most frequent comment I get is something like: Obamacare health insurance premiums are much higher than the government says they are – what gives? Today, I will answer that question with some new facts from an independent non-profit on healthcare premiums around the country. Prepare to be surprised.

    The Obama administration’s Health and Human Services Department (HHS) announced on January 21 that healthcare premiums on the Affordable Care Act exchanges rose an average of only 9% from 2015 to 2016. That was highly misleading since the HHS data covered less than half of all consumers buying healthcare on the federal exchanges in the last year.

    The real premium increases, almost across-the-board, are substantially higher in most states this year. A new, independent report from the Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce includes the weighted-average premiums for all plans available on the Affordable Care Act’s exchanges.

    The findings will shock you, or maybe not, if you have recently renewed your healthcare coverage. In that case, you may already know, especially depending on where you live. In any event, that’s what we’ll talk about today.

    We will also talk about how healthcare costs are by far the fastest growing subset of the US economy. And that’s putting it lightly. The increase in healthcare cost almost doubled the next fastest growing sector’s cost growth last year.  Can you say, out-of-control?

    But before we get to that discussion, let’s take a look at last Friday’s unemployment report for January. The headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%, the lowest level since early 2008, but some of the internal numbers were mixed or disappointing.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-12-2016
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  • The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

    Today I have a recent piece in which Louis Gave jumps into the team’s debate over renminbi policy. In true Gavekal style, he openly questions what others in the firm think about China’s currency. I won’t steal any of his thunder but just encourage you to read this piece carefully. It covers a great deal of very important ground.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-12-2016
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  • $100 Trillion Up in Smoke

    The ongoing oil price collapse is having a severely negative impact on the wealth of those who own oil reserves. The numbers, as you will see below, are almost incomprehensibly big. They are so big, in fact, that many analysts have simply tuned out. The attitude seems to be, “These numbers blow up my models, so I will ignore them.”

    Today we’ll stop dancing around the truth and call the oil collapse what it is: global wealth destruction of epic proportions.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-12-2016
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  • Gold Soars!

    In This Issue.

    * Save havens are getting bought today.

    * Yellen leaves us all scratching our heads!

    * Riksbank got deeper with negative rates!

    * Oil plunges to $26!

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 02-12-2016
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  • Where to Hide Your Money From Reckless Governments

    By Justin Spittler A major central bank just made a desperate move… If you’ve been reading the Dispatch , you know we’re living through a gigantic “global monetary experiment.” In short, global central banks cut interest...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 02-12-2016
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