• Should the Fed be Responsibly Irresponsible?

    This week I offer two short essays for your reading pleasure in Outside the Box. The first is from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the London Telegraph. He gives some more specifics about the situation in Europe I wrote about this weekend.

    He ends with the following sober quote: 'My awful fear is that we will do exactly the opposite, incubating yet another crisis this autumn, to which we will respond with yet further spending. This is the road to ruin.' This is a must read.

    And the second piece? Last week in Outside the Box we looked at an 'Austrian' (economic) view of the inflation/deflation debate from my friends at Hoisington. This week we look at the 180 degree opposite with Keynesian aficionado Paul McCulley, who argues that the Fed should be Responsibly Irresponsible and target higher inflation. This essay has brought some rather heated arguments in print and from some of the people who will be with Paul and me at the annual Maine fishing trip. And you can bet I will put them all together with a little wine to see how the argument ensues. I will report back.

  • Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s

    From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the Black Death to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the twentieth century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations, and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of demographic trends may once again threaten widespread disruption. I am, of course, talking about global aging, which is likely to have a profound effect on economic growth, living standards, and the shape of the world order.

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 01-12-2011
  • Morning Call - 12/11/08

    Economics This Week’s Data October wholesale inventories fell 1.1% versus expectations of a .2% decline; as aggressively as managements are cutting inventories, it was not enough because wholesale sales dropped 4.1%, driving up the wholesale inventory...
  • The Closing Bell-11/8/08

    Note: I will be traveling Tuesday and Wednesday next week. It will still allow me to produce a Morning Call each day; but they will be abbreviated. Statistical Summary Current Economic Forecast 2007 Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: 2.0- 2.5% Inflation...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 11-08-2008
  • QE3 and Thee – The AIA Advocate Newsletter

    In This Issue: QE3 and Thee But Will It Work? The Unemployment Dilemma There Are Some Economic Bright Spots What Happened To Inflation? The Bottom Line The Fed slipped a skyrocket under the stock market earlier this month when it announced QE3. Although...
  • A Brutal Opening

    Economics This Week’s Data Weekly jobless claims rose 15,000 versus expectations of a 1,000 decline. Other More on the current tax structure--this from the congressional budget office:
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 10-24-2008
  • A Brutal Opening--Part two

    Subscriber Alert 10/24/08 The Market’s open this morning was much more orderly than the behavior of the futures suggested and it is rebounded off the lows of the morning. Even if the Averages close above the October 10 to present up trend, it still...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 10-24-2008
    Filed under:
  • The Closing Bell-12/6/2008

    Statistical Summary Current Economic Forecast 2008 Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP): -1.0 - +1.0% Inflation: 2-3% Growth in Corporate Profits: 0-5% 2009 Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: -0.5 - -1.5% Inflation: 1-2 % Growth in Corporate...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 12-06-2008
  • Inventories Threatening to Stall Oil Rebound

    I’ve talked a lot about oil inventories these past few weeks, and with good reason. With refineries worried about deal-breaking issues like tight credit, lousy consumer demand, and a declining oil market, oil refineries are reducing output and taking...
  • Here Is My Secret for Outperforming the Market

    In This Issue:
    An Update on Our Performance
    A New Discovery
    Evaluating Our Great Recession
    U.S. Markets - The Lost Decade
    How Did Your Money Manager Perform?
    My Secret for Outperforming the Market
    Putting the Odds in Your Favor
    Constructing Your Portfolio
    Portfolio Performance Analysis
    Dancing with My Daughters and Hitting the Slopes

    What will happen to the markets in 2009? I am projecting more of the same, but with less relative downside risk. Volatility will ebb and flow for the next 18 months, as the market searches for the bottom. The current corporate earnings are worse than terrible, causing the overall market fundamental valuations to be very expensive! You are going to hear of a lot of talk about the market bottoming out in 2009. That would be good for all of us if it did, but I think any rallies will be short lived, and that the ultimate bottom will not occur until the summer 2010. I hope I am wrong.

  • Why It Is Good Not To Be First

    In This Issue:

    Our Monthly Performance Update
    Dr. Howard Bandy Has Joined Our Team
    An Important Change to Our Equity Allocations
    The Most Important Charts of the New Century
    Surfing the Money Tsunami
    Bubbles of the Far Away Kind
    Making Everyone Else Rich...
    If You Can't Beat the Fed, Join Them
    Interesting Reading
    Spokane, Reno, and Orlando

    The United States is very fortunate to have a front row seat to Europe's, and soon Japan's, sovereign debt crises. Going through the second phase of the credit crisis will be difficult short-term, but learning hard lessons from our neighbors will soon turn our ship out of harm's way and ensure the long-term economic viability of the United States. It's not that we're smarter than our comrades across the pond, it's just that our economic cycle is five to ten years behind theirs.

    When this sovereign debt crisis finally plays out, socialism as currently defined by Europe, will no longer exist. As the book, The Fourth Turning clearly documented, humans have a nasty habit of hitting the reset button every 80 to 100 years. The Romans and Greeks recognized and documented this destructive and rebuilding phenomenon in their own culture.

  • Will the Oil Bull Market Continue?

    Your Daily Profit June 11, 2009 *****Bullish on Oil? *****43% Average Gain *****New Feature for Daily Profit Fellow Investor, The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that demand for oil is picking up. Instead of the 3% drop in demand, the IEA says...
    Posted to Daily Profit by Ian Wyatt on 06-11-2009
    Filed under: , , ,
  • Inflation, The Fisher King and a Solar Stock

    Inflation, The Fisher King and a Solar Stock And to think, investors cheered the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged. Today, the Producer Price Index, a popular low-ball measure of wholesale inflation, came in twice as hot as expected...
  • A Yacht, Greenspan and Uranium Stocks

    On Monday, in a CNBC Europe interview, Jim Rogers wondered if the US was “…more communist than China .” He was referring to the Fed’s bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and to a lesser extent, the bailout of Bear Stearns back...
  • Will It Stick?

    Your Daily Profit November 25, 2008 *****Will It Stick? *****Stock Updates *****Black Friday Dear Investor, *****You may recall the last time the market’s put in a gigantic rally, I was skeptical . The Dow had just launched 900 points, reversing...
    Posted to Growth Report by Ian Wyatt on 11-26-2008
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