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  • Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 09/24/2009

    In This Issue:

    Will The Right Fundamentals Please Stand Up?
    The "Uncle Sam Effect"
    Small Investors Are Coming Back To Stocks
    Inflation Fears Are Increasing
    First Some Bad News, Then Some Good News
    Easy Index Gains May Be Over
    These Four Favorites Should Stay On Top
    And So Should China
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Despite all the worries about overvalued stocks, the market is continuing to advance. To be sure, the gains aren't coming by leaps and bounds anymore - but they are still adding up nicely. Since our last newsletter, the Dow and the Nasdaq rose another 1.8% and 5.1% respectively.

    Will The Right Fundamentals Please Stand Up?

    When it comes to stock fundamentals, value is in the eye of the beholder. Traditionalists believe the market is too expensive for the weak economic recovery they expect to see. The analysts argue that the economy may take over a year to justify the whopping 46% gain in the Dow since March. Some analysts think the recovery will never gain the necessary strength.

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  • Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 12/11/2008

    In This Issue:

    The Long-Awaited Bear Rally May Be Starting
    Although Weak, Some Hopeful Economic Signs Are Emerging
    Credit Is Slowly Opening Up Again
    If Fear Subsides, The Outlook Will Improve Immediately
    A Recovery Will Bring Unwelcome Inflation
    The Bottom Line This Week

    As we reported in our previous issue, the sharp stock market advance over the Thanksgiving holiday came to a crashing end on December 1. However, prices have been stronger since then. Although the gains weren't enough to fully erase the earlier plunge, the Dow and the Nasdaq managed to end last week down just 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. From Monday to Wednesday of the current week, the market managed to make some additional gains.

    It's significant that the price increases occurred while more bad economic news was breaking. A manufacturing decline, an auto sales plunge, and more job losses should have pushed stocks down several more notches. The fact that investors largely ignored the negatives may indicate that the bear market is close to a bottom.

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  • Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 11/26/2008

    Special Issue:

    When Deflation Comes,
    Cash Is King

    When everybody is certain the economy and stocks will move a particular way, usually just the opposite occurs. That's just what happened this summer when deflation suddenly overtook inflation as America's primary economic problem. Mr. Murphy, of Murphy's Law, seems to take particular pleasure in messing up the plans of investors.

    Deflation, of course, is just the opposite of inflation. Instead of seeing the value of money fall and the prices of goods rise, cash becomes much more valuable and prices decrease.

    Deflation is clearly in control today as homes, oil, and even precious metals plummet in price. Now food costs are beginning to sink. Jobs are being lost in most industries. Most experts think that wages will also begin to fall within a few months.

    The public is starting to show the effects of the deflationary squeeze. People are selling motor homes, pleasure boats, and many other big ticket items to raise badly needed cash. A disturbing 10% of Ohio's adult population is on food stamps. Of course, retail sales are also weakening.

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  • Week of 08/28/2008

    In This Issue:

    Tensions Between The U.S. And Russia Are Serious
    Oil And Commodities React To The Threat
    Defense Stocks Look Even Better Than Last Week
    And So Does The Dollar
    Inflation vs Deflation Contest Heats Up
    But Inflation Should End Up With The Gold
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Last week the stock market revealed that it has more underlying strength than world events would seem to justify. If the market is once again acting as a leading indicator of the future, the outlook is brighter than is generally supposed.

    Despite the fact that a new cold war seems to be underway, the Dow was only off 0.3% last week. The Nasdaq declined 1.5%. The market dropped 242 points when it reopened on Monday, but it regained nearly half the loss on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Our feeling is that investors want to be buyers and can only be held back by disturbing news. That's a big difference from a bear market mentality when bad news drives prices and good news is ignored.

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  • Week of 08/21/2008

    In This Issue:

    Inflation Spike Seems Unlikely To Last
    The Dollar Rally Gathers Strength
    Russians In Georgia Have Investors Spooked
    The Outlook Is Good For U.S. Defense Companies
    In A Low Yield World, Dividends Shine
    The Bottom Line This Week

    The stock rally lost some ground last week which made many investors worry that the run may be coming to an end. That fear was justified since the main engine behind the rally -falling oil prices- continued to play their part. Even with oil moving down to the $112 range, the Dow fell 0.6% for the week.

    Small stocks moved in the opposite direction to their larger cousins as the Nasdaq posted a 1.6% advance. In its own way, the small stock upturn also made investors nervous. The bounce was another in a long list of confusing situations that are at work in the market today.

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