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  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......
  • Jobs Losses Continue...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar gets sold...
    * China posts strong data...
    * Commodity Currencies & Commodities soar!
    * Dealing with reality...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Are you staying warm? I know it's difficult to do, given the fact that most of the country is in a deep freeze! I checked the weather at my 'fave' spring location, Jupiter Florida, and it was even 'cold' (FOR THEM) there! We're supposed to see some thawing this week, so let's hope that holds true...

    There's some thawing already going on in the currencies and commodities, thanks to a report from China yesterday... So, let's go to the tape and see what's happening this morning!

    The non-dollar currencies and commodities are flying high this morning, hammering the dollar... The Aussie & Canadian dollars are heading to parity once again, the euro is back over the 1.45 handle, and Gold is up $20! It's all good, for non-dollar investors this morning... I don't want to sound like a cheerleader, like I've been accused of being in the past, but, this is a currency / economy letter, and it's geared to non-dollar currency investors... So, take that as it may come......
  • U.S. Companies To Repatriate Profits?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * More deficit spending...
    * 10-year yields at 3 month highs...
    * A nice 9-year run for the non-dollar currencies...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last Monday of 2009! And Yes... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Bet you were wishing I would remain on vacation through to the New Year... That's OK, I was wishing for the same thing last night! HA! I hope your Christmas or other celebration was grand... Mine was... Little Delaney Grace stole the show... I sat there watching her, thinking, how great it must be to not have a care in the world, except if her 'baby' needed changing!

    To not have to worry about deficit spending, knuckleheads making decisions against the wishes of their constituents, nut cakes running around shooting off missiles, and ramping up nuclear capabilities, and the beat goes on... The beat goes on......
  • The Dollar Bounces Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Rumors kill the currency rally...
    * Risk Aversion campers return...
    * Dr. Faber with some thoughts...
    * Big Mac and the real...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The rain is back... First we had the coldest / rainiest spring I can ever recall, and then a very mild summer, now this... Cold and rain in the fall... I'd say that's climate change for you!

    Good news from the scans! By the grace of God, I sailed through the scans and tests, cancer wise... I would like to thank everyone that had me in their thoughts, and prayers... Those are powerful things, don't forget that one minute!

    OK... Well, the non-dollar currencies didn't enjoy such good news yesterday, as they got whacked a good one! After signing off yesterday, the non-dollar currencies continued to rally VS the dollar, and then the rug got pulled out from underneath them in a NY Minute! What happened? The risk assets were dropping like the Cardinals' batting averages at the end of the season... Well... Remember yesterday when I said that the data for the week looked like it might show some healing in the economy which would be bad for the dollar?...
  • The Dollar Gets Ambushed!

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies soar!
    * Weber gives the green light...
    * Is the Fed buying more Treasuries?
    * China considering IMF's Gold!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday that needs no 'turn-around', as the currency actions VS the dollar overnight are amazing! The dollar got ambushed overnight, as the euro shot right straight through the 1.47 handle, and has just traded 1.48! Hmmm... Didn't I say yesterday that the I didn't think the dollar strength we were seeing was any change in the recent trend? ... I love it when a plan comes together!...
  • Spending More Than We (the U.S.) Make...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight...
    * The Mogambo on a Thursday! YAHOO!
    * Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn't give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news... So, let's go to the tape!

    OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I've chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let's review... The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June's tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures were greater than the receipts! I highlight these two months because, they should have been positive months for the budget balance... If we can't post a positive balance in April and June, what's the rest of the year going to look like?

    ...
  • So Far... It's A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies bounce back...
    * Commodities and Commodity Currencies get hit hard!
    * China's recovery a myth?
    * Devaluation in the dollar's future?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's too hot in the hot tub! You can't make me get in the hot tub! Ahhh... When I walk outside and my eye glasses fog up from the heat and humidity, I think of that old Saturday Night skit, with Eddie Murphy playing James Brown!

    OK... Well, yesterday we saw the currencies stop the bleeding from the overnight sell off, and although they range traded on the day, the bias was to sell dollars once again. That bias has played through on our Turn Around Tuesday theme, and the currencies are higher today than yesterday, but lower than they were 3-weeks ago week ago. Yes, the month of June has not been kind to the currencies, as some of the euphoria that was going on from March thru May, regarding the global economic recovery is being thought about again, and this time, not with the same rose colored glasses......
  • Fundamentals Return...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies & Gold move together!
    * Fed downgrades economic growth...
    * More on China...
    * Yen breaks the trading pattern...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' here, as the warm winds of spring have finally sprung, the Cardinals have won two in a row from the rival Cubs, and I'm headed to Busch Stadium tonight! Oh! And fundamentals, as far as currencies and metals are concerned, seemed to be in place yesterday...

    That's right... The rout on the dollar was on (recall yesterday, Wayne and Garth playing street hockey... Game On!) and this time... Not only did the currencies rally VS the dollar, Gold and Silver took part in the proceedings too! It's been a long time since we've seen this happen... For the most part, whenever the currencies (minus yen) rallied, Gold would back off, and vice versa... Not yesterday! For the first time in a long time, the negativity toward the dollar was front and center BIG TIME!...
  • It's Cinco De Mayo!

    In This Issue..

    * A Huge currency rally...
    * The games people play now...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * Brazilian real is the daily winner!

    Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun! A few years ago, I talked about Cinco De Mayo, and some guy took exception to it, and called me a really nasty name... So, I won't get all flowery about the day, except to say, go have some fun!

    Of course, to me, the saying 'go have some fun' is a staple of my being! Especially these days! I realize that I need to have "more fun", but work, and all that gets in the way, darn it! HA!...
  • Budget Deficit Triples!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound
    * Budget Deficit makes up for Trade data...
    * China's currency reserves continue to grow...
    * High yielders are best performers...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And a Happy Easter Monday to those who get the day off! I'm still battling this, whatever it is that I have, which means I spent the weekend in the sick bay... UGH! Oh well, we carry on... But... Talk about short-n-sweet... That's today's Pfennig for sure!

    The lack of volume on Friday didn't yield any wild swings, and the currencies pared their losses from the day before (trade deficit plunges)... This morning, the currencies, led by the euro, are moving higher VS the dollar, but at this point it's baby steps... The bias to sell dollars hangs over the currencies however... It seems to me that it's very much like trying to hold a kid back from ripping open their Christmas presents... It sure seems inevitable, but when is the question... As I used to say in my presentations, imagine if you will a big old Ford rambling down an icy country road, and it begins to spin out of control... You know for sure that you're heading toward that guard rail, and your Ford will make impact with that guard rail, it's just a matter of time.......
  • Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event?

    * A potential CDS debacle... * Currencies rally back... * Brazilian real history... * Saber rattling or geopolitical pressure? ** Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event? Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Right out of the starters blocks this morning, I have to apologize for the tardiness of the Pfennig yesterday... We were experiencing some technical difficulties... In fact, if you sent me an email, I didn't get it yesterday! Things look better this morning, so, maybe we're back on track! I know it's no one's fault when this stuff happens, but it sure doesn't make me feel good about getting up at X:XX AM (I won't say because you will think I'm crazy!) to come in and write the Pfennig, only to see it not go out until late in the day! Well... The stock market here in the U.S. sure liked the news about Fannie and Freddie! I guess, they, just like the dollar bulls, didn't get the memo that this will put billions of dollars of tax burden on taxpayers, and most likely is going to cause a major disruption in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that are on the books... Oh, well, we have to learn to deal with mental giants all our lives, this is just another case of that!...
  • It Was Central Bank Intervention!

    * Currencies add to their gains... * Industrial Production soars! * 2nd QTR GDP to be a one and done! * The Aden Sisters on Gold! ** It Was Central Bank Intervention! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! While I'm not out of the woods, I'm feeling more human this morning, and that's a good thing, considering where I've been earlier this week! So, I'm going to go out on a limb, and proclaim this will be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I've got my banana, and bottle of Gatorade at my side, so.... Let's get to the Pfennig! Front and Center this morning I have to talk about the blip that we're going to see that happened in the 2nd QTR due to the stimulus checks. It all goes back to the stimulus checks and the first sign of this came (besides Retail Sales) yesterday in the form of Industrial Production. Remember yesterday when I told you that Industrial Production is a second tier piece of data that gets ignored by the markets, but I think it's important so I talk about it? Well... Just like last week, when I described the bratty spoiled child throwing a tantrum on the floor of the grocery store as being something you can't avoid paying attention to... The growth in Industrial Production was the same......
  • On The Soapbox Again...

    * Euro loses 1 1/2-cents... * Currencies get taken to the woodshed... * Bernanke joins Paulson, but why? * A China comment explanation......
  • Data Supports ECB's Decision To Wait

    * Data supports ECB's decision to wait * NOK and SEK set to gain * Singapore $ hits decade high * AUD & NZD continue to increase...
  • Oil hits $100

    * Oil hits $100 * Pound continues to get sold * Brazil Real at 8 year high * Aussie benefits from rising prices...