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  • Catching A Cold...

    In This Issue..

    * Eurozone deficits again...

    * Eurozone Manufacturing dips...

    * Aussie election is up in the air...

    * Bailing on a C$ rate hike?

    ...
  • Big Ben Talks Rate Hikes...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a very tight range...
    * Aussie job creation soars!
    * Oil pushes loonies higher...
    * The Mogambo Guru returns!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... It's a BIG night at the Butler house... Not really at our house, but more the Fabulous Fox! My little buddy Alex, and the jazz band he plays guitar for, will be performing tonight at the Fabulous Fox, which for those of you not familiar with the Fox, it's a beautiful refurbished theater here in St. Louis... Alex also has a big guitar solo, so this should be good!

    OK... Well, the 'experts' that thought the Trade Deficit was going to narrow in December got their lunch handed to them yesterday, when not only did the Trade Deficit NOT narrow, but widened from $35 Billion to $40 Billion! Now that stinks! And... I'll tell you right now, it will deduct from the 5.7% GDP figure that was printed a couple of weeks ago. Yes, this increase in the Trade Deficit will probably reduce the GDP figure to at least 5%...

    ...
  • Exceptionally Low For An Extended Period...

    In This Issue..

    * Old Trading Theme rises up again...
    * Currencies sell off then rebound overnight...
    * U.S. New Homes Sales Decline...
    * It's somebody's birthday today!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's me... I thought it best to cancel my San Antonio trip, so Jen can get to Florida to be with her family. This is the second time that I've backed out of speaking engagement with this private group, I sure hope they don't think I'm avoiding them!

    Front and Center this morning... It's Chris Gaffney's Birthday! So... This will be the 'Chris Gaffney Birthday Edition of the Pfennig'! Chris is 10 years younger than me, so yesterday when he said 'I'm an old man now' I about fell out of my chair! He's not even 50! Oh well...

    For Chris' Birthday, I'm going to buy him lunch, and... Talk briefly about the State of the Union Address, only to the extent of how it affected the currencies, and the FOMC statement yesterday, and other things... Just for Chris' Birthday! HA!...
  • It's Not My Fault!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies mount a mini-rally...
    * Let's blame someone else...
    * Eurozone manufacturing rises...
    * Brazil tries something new...

    Good day... And a Marvelous first Monday of 2010 to you! It's very cold here, much like most of the country, and there's no forecast that has our temperature even reaching the freezing mark this week... So... It's hunker down, stoke up the fire, and find a good book to read weather!

    The Chill that has settled down on us here in the Midwest, has tried to settle in on the currencies going into the end of the year... But... Here we are, it's 2010, a new year, and new ideas for the currencies... We'll have to wait-n-see what comes out this week and next, for there will be plenty of pundits, analysts, writers, and so on, that come out with their forecasts for 2010... Me? The song remains the same folks... Fundamentally speaking, there's only one direction the dollar should go... But, then, we need to get to fundamentals again, eh?...
  • The Dollar Rebounds Again...

    In This Issue..

    * Economic data deep sixes currency rally...
    * U.S. Treasury back at the auction window!
    * Yen's rose has faded...
    * Chinese renminbi spikes higher!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not trying to sound like a broken record here, but today is the last Wednesday of 2009... The last 'hump day' and so on... The non-dollar currencies got bushwhacked yesterday by the dollar bulls around mid-day, and there's been no recovery since. The Treasury is back at the auction table, with $32 Billion in 7-year Treasuries for you to buy at the fantabulous yield of.... Drum roll please.... 2.60%! All that and more, so buckle yourself in, and make certain to keep your arms and legs inside the Pfennig at all times during the ride!

    ...
  • It’s A Jobs Jamboree Friday for 12/04/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * Commodity Currencies rebound...
    * Gold sees profit taking...
    * Canary in a coal mine...
    * It's Moving Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's Moving Day for us here in the EverBank St. Louis office, as we will pick up our belongings and walk next door, to a larger, space, with some incredible views! We moved into this space 5 years ago, and we've been busting at the seams, with the threads holding on to dear life, for over a year now... So, this move is welcomed. Like I said the other day, in 1999, I sat in an office that we rented from the kind folks at Paylinx, and that was the beginning... From that tiny office to this! WOW!

    ...
  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
    * Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
    * Who's car is uglier
    * Gold hit a 3-week low...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...
  • A Currency Rally For The Ages!

    In This Issue..

    * Negative momentum towards the dollar grows...
    * Treasury yields continue to rise...
    * Fundamentals and Charts coincide!
    * Silver has best week in 22 years!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to make the call and say this is going to be a Fantastico Friday! The sun is supposed to come out today after a week of rain, it's Friday, it's pay-day, and... The currencies have put on a rally that's the stuff that movies are made from! And... Once again, there were signs yesterday that the break of the link to stocks was in place! Take all that, and the fact that we woke up this morning for a brand new day... And you have a Fantastico Friday!

    OK... So front and center this morning let me tell you about the currency rally that began yesterday morning... Let's look back at what I said as I was getting ready to hit the send button yesterday morning... 'So... As I get ready to head to the Big Finish, I see that the currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, are getting off the porch once again to chase the dollar.'...
  • Currencies Rally Yesterday...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro climbs back to 1.30...
    * High Yielders bounce back...
    * Gold to hit $1,500?
    * Kurt Richebacher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because it's finally supposed to be warm here today, and... The Card and Mets in a day game at Busch today... Wink, wink... It's also a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because... I said so! HA-HA!

    Well... We had a rally in the currencies yesterday and this time the rally wasn't reversed overnight by profit taking! WOW! It's been some time since we could say that! Maybe it was the good karma the overnight markets received by my little buddy Alex's base hit last night to drive in 2 runs! Or, the good karma from a Cardinals pitcher going into the 9th inning of a game! WOW! Or... Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, fundamentals are creeping back into the currency markets?...
  • It's Not My Fault, It Must Be Yours!

    * What's $78 Billion among friends? * Currencies fade with bias to buy Gold... * Could the Carry Trade Unwind be done? * U.S. soccer beats Mexico... ** It's Not My Fault, It Must Be Yours! Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Well... Front and center this morning, I'm going to tell you something that will surprise a few and make a few happy. I've had my say on the Bailouts, TARP, Stimulus, and spending. I've beaten them to a pulp, and some readers have expressed their contempt with me carrying on with this beating. So... Unless something cracks, I'll just leave it all as it stands, and go on with life. This all has been too much for my blood pressure to take! I'll report the facts on this stuff, and leave the commentary for people that think they "know better"... For instance, it was reported the other day that the Treasury Dept. has overpaid for stock received from TARP recipients by $78 Billion. You see, for every $100 given in TARP, the Treasury was to receive $100 in stock / assets, but when all the beans are counted, the Treasury is $78 Billion short on stock /assets... But, what the heck, what's $78 Billion among friends?...
  • A New Year!

    * Currencies range trade... * With a bias to buy dollars... * Recession deepens in Eurozone... * India cuts rates... ** A New Year! Good day... Happy New Year! And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, I bet it will be, as most people are still on "holiday". I hope your New Year's celebration went well, mine did, spent with good friends, after a simply scrumptious dinner! Yesterday, we spent the day with friends again, as good friend Rick, had everyone and their brother to his new house to celebrate the New Year... I'm worn out! Good thing this is a quick shot work day, and then onto the weekend, because I'm spent! Well, enough of all that! The currencies traded in a very tight range on Wednesday, and I expect more of that today. The bias has been to buy dollars going into the year-end, and it looks as though that might be the case today, as there's been no data to speak of in the U.S., while the Eurozone printed a very weak manufacturing index report, indicating that the Eurozone's recession is deepening. Of course if we compared apples to apples the bias would be to buy euros, but since there hasn't been any "real" economic data in a couple of days from the U.S. this report from the Eurozone gets all the attention....
  • Losses Keep Piling On!

    * Range bound currencies... * Stocks rebound... * So, you think Oil is expensive? * Gold prices back off... ** Losses Keep Piling On! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm running late today, was up most of the night with stomach problems, and overslept this morning. This is my last day on my 4-weeks treatment, so maybe by this time next week, I'll be able to feel normal again. But, it's a Friday! And... I'll be gone the next 3-weeks! First to Vancouver, where I'll still write the Pfennig each day, but then on vacation, and on to San Francisco... I'll be back in the saddle on August 11th... Well... We had a range bound day in the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief at JP Morgan's 2nd QTR earnings... JP Morgan beat the estimates, but the thing I don't get is why there was dancing in the streets when those earnings were 53% below those a year ago. So, good for them for beating the estimates, but 53% below last year, I would certainly think it would have raised a few eyebrows... In fact, JP Morgan head man, Jamie Dimon said, "Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."...