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  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • A 34 Billion Euros Package For Greece!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade up, then back down...
    * RBA to hike rates this week?
    * Jamie Dimon on California VS Greece...
    * Fannie needs another $15 Billion!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to March! My fave month! Yes, it's me this morning... You were under the impression that it would be Chris this morning, and back to me tomorrow... But here I am... I'll rock you like a hurricane! HA! Chris had some fatherly duties this morning, so I took the conn back one day early... I'll still rest today after a long, difficult week last week in Scottsdale, and will be back in the saddle tomorrow, as planned.

    Well... What have we here? News broke on this past Saturday, that a package of 30 Billion euros was going to be provided to Greece from German and French state banks, and investors... The amount then turned to $34 Billion... Now... You know me... And I'm not in favor of 'bail outs'... Throwing good money at bad... And all that, but... This looks like it's what the markets wanted to see, for the currencies, especially the higher yielding currencies are receiving a bias to buy this morning...

    ...
  • It's A Risk On Monday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies recover from Friday sell off!
    * Gold also recovers!
    * RBA to meet tonight!
    * Canada to exit their recession?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was special. I had a great time on my day off on Friday, as we went to the country and cut down our Christmas Tree. Quite early for us this year, but you have to take advantage of the 'windows' of time when they pop open! I have to say something front and center this morning though... Last week when I would say we need to give thanks to groups of people, I missed out on something very special to me... My health... I'm thankful that I was allowed to fight cancer, and be around now when my little granddaughter, Delaney Grace is so darn cute!

    OK... Front and center on the currencies this morning, we have the fears of a default in Dubai, fading, and that brings the risk takers back out... So, we had one day of bloodletting on Friday, and come Monday, it'll be alright, Come Monday, I'll be holding you tight, no wait! Come Monday, the tourniquet had been applied, and things are back on track. The Big Dog, euro is off the porch, chasing the dollar down the street once again, and is trading at 1.5050, as I begin to write this morning.

    ...
  • German ZEW Underpins The Euro...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on tariff news...
    * Norway's election doesn't move krone...
    * Canada's Gov't problems to hurt loonies?
    * 1-year since Lehman Bros...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, just as I suspected yesterday in the Pfennig, when the U.S. traders came in and got word of the new Chinese tariffs on tires, the dollar got sold like re-mastered box sets of Beatles albums! So, we've got that to talk about, and some other items I'd like to discuss... So, here we come Terrific Tuesday!

    OK... Well, just as I stated above, the U.S. traders didn't care for the new tariff, feeling that it would project a trade war, and therefore sold the dollar. The Big Dog, euro, traded to 1.4635 by mid-day... There was some profit taking late in the day, which brought the euro back to below 1.46, but then this morning, the euro got another boost from a report on German Investor Confidence, to bring it back to 1.46, as I write......
  • Cash For Clunkers Is A Clunker!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range again...
    * U.S. Retail Sales are a clunker!
    * RBA's Stevens is upbeat!
    * Thoughts on Brazil...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of the week... It's been a tough week for yours truly, as I've hobble around in pain all week. But, as I recall, I promised 2 years ago that I would not complain about these things in the future... So! I carry on!

    Well... Front and center this morning... The currencies are trading near levels they were when I signed off yesterday morning. They did have a brief rally, after the U.S. Retail Sales data showed some real rot on the 'recover is here' vine... But that rally was snuffed out, as the risk aversion campers came back to the markets......
  • Another Jobs Jamboree!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range... Again!
    * Continuing Claims rise...
    * Bank of England adds to QE! UGH!
    * Swiss franc posts 5 weeks of gains...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Fantastico Friday! This has been a long week for yours truly, coming off a week of relaxation, and getting right back in the saddle... But... It's Friday... YAHOO!

    OK... There are a few things to discuss this morning, but none so important as the Jobs Jamboree that will happen in a couple of hours from now. I told you yesterday that the economists surveyed believe that the jobs lost number will make a big move downward from 476,000 in June to 325,000 in July... That's a HUGE jump folks! Ty Keough responded to that note in the Pfennig yesterday by saying, "That's because there are no more jobs to cut!" Now, that's one way of looking at it... We have to hope that it's not that, but instead be a reflection of jobs being added... Come on! We can hope!...
  • Spending More Than We (the U.S.) Make...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight...
    * The Mogambo on a Thursday! YAHOO!
    * Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn't give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news... So, let's go to the tape!

    OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I've chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let's review... The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June's tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures were greater than the receipts! I highlight these two months because, they should have been positive months for the budget balance... If we can't post a positive balance in April and June, what's the rest of the year going to look like?

    ...
  • U.S. Manufacturing Is Recovering...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move Monday...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * And moves bias to neutral...
    * Central Bank warnings have no teeth!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! First day back yesterday was a killer for yours truly... Went home, and went to sleep... But, I'm back today, and feeling good. I did something to my left knee on vacation that left me hobbling, and leaning on my cane more than I usually do. But today, it seems a bit better, so I've got that going for me!

    Yesterday, I left you with the euro popping back and forth over the 1.43 level... But in a wink of an eye, the 1.43 level was gone, and the euro was trading with a 1.44 level, and remained there the rest of the day, reaching 1.4420 for the high... As I turn on the screens this morning, I see that the single unit has gone to popping back and forth over the 1.44 level... You don't think it will get another sling-shot higher today do you?...
  • Feds Say NO To CIT...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies have strong day...
    * What are the qualifications?
    * JP Morgan posts 36% increase in earnings...
    * RBA attempts to keep A$'s in check...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! The first day this week that I've gotten up and to work at my normal time. I hit the wall yesterday afternoon, went home, watched about 10 minutes of the Wizard of Oz (my all-time fave movie) with granddaughter Delaney Grace, and then went to sleep! Crazy, I know, but when you hit the wall, you hit the wall!

    Yesterday was a strong day in the currencies. I wrote yesterday about how the euro was inching toward 1.41, but the level had been a tough row to hoe, with the euro giving back ground each time it went higher than 1.41... And... That was the case yesterday! The euro did trade higher than 1.41. It was 1.4120 when I left the office! But, as I turn on the screens this morning, the single unit has fallen below the 1.41 figure......
  • China Is Back On The G-9 Docket...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion is strong once again...
    * Currencies get sold...
    * What's China really up to?
    * RBA to leave rates unchanged?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Some people have the day off today, so we'll probably not be back in full force until tomorrow... Not that we've been in full force, as a workforce in the U.S. for some time... But that's another story for another day! Today is a new day, and new week!

    Friday's thinned out markets were not what the currencies wanted to see, as the bias to Risk Aversion was magnified in the thinned out markets, only making the selling of the currencies even worse... Some 'levels' were hit in the thinned out markets, and that caused even more selling in the overnight markets as Japan and Asia came on board....
  • German Investor Confidence Is On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies stop the dollar's run...
    * BRIC meeting could get ugly for the dollar...
    * RBA meeting notes good for Aussie dollars...
    * Depressing data / forecasts for housing...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thundering storms moved through here this morning, as I was preparing to leave home and drive to the office. As slow as I am with getting around these days, I got pretty wet from my car to the office building. But, I didn't melt, as most would have thought! HA! And, I'll dry out soon enough... Well before anyone else comes in!

    OK... Well... When I left you yesterday, the dollar was on a rampage, from the comments by the Russian Finance Minister, Kudrin... Was it an overreaction, I asked? A resounding YES was my answer... I think the proof is in the pudding on that this morning, as the dollar buying has hit a roadblock, and reversed overnight, with the euro gaining back about 1%......
  • Currencies Bounce Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets soar!
    * German Investor Confidence surprises!
    * High yielders kicking tail...
    * Who's afraid of the SNB?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Finally! Spring has arrived and for more than one day at a time here in St. Louis! YAHOO! A very cold and wet spring for us, brought us to the middle of May before normal spring weather was upon us... Good things come to those who are patient, right?

    OK... Speaking of patience... I think that's what we'll all have to possess a lot of going forward with these currencies and stocks... Here's what I'm talking about... Yesterday morning it looked as though the recent rally in stocks was over, complete, pack up the bags, get on the bus, Gus... And with the trading theme of throwing all risk assets in the same bag and trading them alike that's been in place since last July, this would seem to be a nail in the coffin of the currency rally we've seen going on since March 1st.......
  • It's Cinco De Mayo!

    In This Issue..

    * A Huge currency rally...
    * The games people play now...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * Brazilian real is the daily winner!

    Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun! A few years ago, I talked about Cinco De Mayo, and some guy took exception to it, and called me a really nasty name... So, I won't get all flowery about the day, except to say, go have some fun!

    Of course, to me, the saying 'go have some fun' is a staple of my being! Especially these days! I realize that I need to have "more fun", but work, and all that gets in the way, darn it! HA!...
  • Riksbank Holds Off On QE...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * German Investor Confidence rises!
    * Thoughts from Jim Rogers...
    * Kohn on the economy...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm staring at all this white space on the Pfennig template, and I absolutely drew a blank... I couldn't think of, or can't think of a thing to say! Whoa there partner! That can't happen! There's got to be something, anything, to talk about... OK! I'm back now, I really have no idea where that was going, it was an out of body experience! HAHAHAHA!

    OK... The currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, after the dollar had ambushed them on Friday and in the Sunday night trading sessions. It's been a week since we saw currency strength, other than Japanese yen. So, we should be due for a bounce. There continues to be more whispering about the eventual dollar weakness, but for now, it's not enough to get us back to where the dollar should be trading on a fundamentals basis....
  • Talking Stimulus...

    * A very tight range for currencies... * RBA cuts rates to historic low! * Spending that doesn't create jobs... * Gold see profit taking... ** Talking Stimulus... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! On the road again, I just can't wait to get on the road again... Yes, all my bags are packed and I'm ready to go! Won't be back until late Saturday night, and back in the saddle next Monday. And I'm leaving just in time, as yet another cold front has moved into St. Louis! UGH! Well... Let's see... What to talk about today? I could talk about the Aussie rate cut and stimulus package... I could talk about the "new and improved" stimulus package and all the "non-stimulus spending attached to it... I could talk about how it sure seems as though the euro, and then the other currencies, are taking their cues to rally from equities... Now, this is certainly a short term phenomenon because we all know that currencies have different pricing mechanisms than stocks, and a very low correlation to stocks, which is why they make excellent diversification assets, along with Gold and Silver....