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  • Eurozone Confidence Rises...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally
    * German unemployment drops...
    * RBNZ hikes rates 25 BPS...
    * CBO & the inconvenient debt...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! They figured it out! Finally! And in time I might add, given we hook our camper up to my vehicle on Sunday! In the end... The guy at the auto shop said, 'if we would have only listened to what you were telling us'... I said, 'yes, eventually, everyone realizes that!' HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... Front and Center this morning, I have to tell you that we've had a HUGE currency rally overnight, and the rally still has legs through the European session, for, I've seen the euro inch higher as I booted up my computer! What's got the currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, so wound up this morning? Ahhh grasshopper... Come, sit, and let me tell you the story of an ancient warrior, no wait, let me tell you about the rally!...
  • Consumer Confidence Tumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies range trade
    * Aussie CPI prints soft...
    * RBNZ to hike rates tonight...
    * Oil drop pushes loonies lower...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home again this morning, as I have to deal with my car again. They told me it was fixed, I drove it about 10 miles to find out it wasn't! UGH! I must have the guy that failed 'car repairs' 10 times before passing...

    OK... The currency action yesterday was, while range traded, up and down, and all around. Yesterday morning I told you that the euro had broken above 1.30, and I would check it to see how long it remained there... Well, this time it was more than 10 minutes, and the euro rose to 1.3040... But then the rug was pulled from under the single unit, and it was back below 1.30 it went... In fact, it fell to just above 1.29, before then turning around once again and heading higher, eventually ending the day at 1.30....
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • 3rd QTR GDP To Lift Our Spirits?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound a bit VS the dollar..
    * Bill Gross on the dollar...
    * Norway raises rates!
    * RBNZ lifts easing bias!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you once again! It's not raining at the moment, but rain is forecast for today, thus the Thunderin' Thursday name! Rain today, tomorrow and who knows when it will stop... I'm thinking of buying the blueprints to build an Ark!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the non-dollar currencies showing some healing as stock futures are positive. What's driving this new found positive feeling in the risk assets? Well, it's all about the first reading of 3rd QTR GDP today, which... Is expected to show that the U.S. economy came out of the recession in the quarter. Of course, I'll be looking for the Gov't spending portion of the GDP, but other media outlets won't, and the markets will get back to looking for higher yields, which you can not get in the U.S.!

    ...
  • A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Goldman says to buy euros!
    * Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
    * RBNZ to meet tonight...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

    I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...
  • A Day Of Healing...

    * Currencies have a mini-rally... * Only to see profit taking overnight... * Gold rebounds too! * Retail Sales on board today... ** A Day Of Healing... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It was a Tub Thumpin' Wednesday yesterday for the currencies and Gold, after seeing them back off earlier this week! I'm in Jacksonville for a company event, and then on Friday morning, I head south to start my spring vacation! But first, some work to do here, and then on to the south! It was 29 degrees when I got in the car to leave for the airport yesterday morning... And it was 77 degrees when I finally arrived in Jacksonville! YAHOO! But even as loud as I can say YAHOO for the warm weather, which I've said over and over again, I've got to go where it's warm, it wasn't as loud as a the YAHOO yelped by currency owners as the euro led the currencies higher and higher all day long!...
  • A Bailout For The Big 3...

    * Another currency rally.... * Bank of Canada cuts 75 BPS! * A Santa rally? * What Asia thinks... ** A Bailout For The Big 3... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We didn't get that snow I talked about yesterday, I guess the milk and bread on the grocery store shelves are safe today! Had to get "all dressed up" last night for a function that brought together a ton of old Mark Twain Bank people, among others. It was great, but I stood for two hours and I'm paying for it this morning... UGH! OK... Another day of "healing" for the currencies, as the 1.29 handle was achieved and held on to in the overnight markets. Slowly... Like sand through the hourglass, these are the days of currency healing! HA! That show, Days of our Lives, was burned into my brain as a kid, as it was my mother's fave soap....
  • It's All About The Jobs Jamboree...

    * Currencies rally then fall back... * Rate slashers! * Following Japan? Let's hope not! * Canada's woes mount... ** It's All About The Jobs Jamboree... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday! A Jobs Jamboree Friday! Anything else, Chuck? No, I don't think so, I'll stop there... It's all about the Jobs Jamboree today. It's all about finding out just how badly the rot on the labor vine has gotten... The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, yesterday, remained above 500K per week, which doesn't bode well for next month's data... But first... November's Jobs Jamboree on the docket! The "experts" have forecast a -335K drop in jobs for November... But, your old Pfennig writer believes that this forecast is low. I think it will be closer to -375K... The reason I say that is the employment piece of the ISM report that printed the other day... The employment index of that report showed some real serious rot on the labor vine... I read a report last night, where an economist was attempting to show how the report should read -750K... As bad as -375K is, I don't think the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have anything to do with printing a -750K report!...
  • Buying Buicks Instead Of Bonds...

    * Currencies trade in a tight range... * Another new plan to help homeowners... * RBNZ and Riksbank slash interest rates! * The Governorator speaks! ** Buying Buicks Instead Of Bonds... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's going to be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday in Europe for sure, given the Central Banks of England and the Eurozone are meeting and will probably cut interest rates to levels that haven't been seen in a while! The automakers are in deep dookie folks, according to them, and are in need of funds / bailout money right now! The head of Ford believes his company can withstand the recession, but fears for GM and Chrysler... The UAW has made some concessions to help the automakers, but it could be a case of too little, too late... Well... Another day of doldrums in the currencies, with the bias, what little there is, to buy dollars. The stock jockeys received some manna from heaven yesterday when it was announced that the U.S. Treasury Department is considering a plan to halt the slide in home prices that would lower mortgage rates using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan could reduce rates for newly issued loans to as low as 4.5%....
  • Automakers Say They Need Funding Now...

    * Currencies trade in a tight range... * China... * Commodity prices to blame... * "Safe" Treasuries? ** Automakers Say They Need Funding Now... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... I went "shopping" yesterday evening... At least I can say I did my bit to keep the economy afloat! HA! Thanks to all who sent along notes to me yesterday with kind words. I truly appreciate the kind words, you are all too kind! The automakers made their pleas to Congress yesterday, and they claim they are in deep dookie! GM says they need $4 Billion right now! And... The original $25 Billion figure has grown to $35 to $40 Billion... The currencies were lifeless yesterday, with only a blip up in euros to 1.2740, only to give it back overnight. Aussie dollars (A$) rallied on the Huge 100 BPS rate cut news from the previous night, but at the end of the day, that was all but forgotten... It was as if the currencies did a Hans and Franz... Got all pumped up... But then turned into 100 lb weaklings again as the day turned to night....
  • Chuck finally heads back home...

    * Chuck's thoughts... * US housing still a drag... * Rate cuts push currencies lower... * Yen rallies and is joined by some odd partners... ** Chuck finally heads back home.. Good day...Another big move up by the dollar and the Japanese yen last night. Really just another repeat of what we have been seeing each day of this week, dollar down, gold down, and oil down. And with the stock market falling dramatically yesterday, all of us on the desk were searching for something that was actually up yesterday. Our bond trader, Don Reis let me know that muni bonds rallied dramatically, along with US treasuries. So I guess investors are just continuing to park funds into the US fixed income markets. Chuck is headed back home this afternoon, after spending the past two weeks traveling the country with FX University. I'm sure he will be happy to get to sleep in his own bed again tonight, and will catch up on his rest tomorrow. He sent me the following note to share with readers....