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  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday – 6/4/2010

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets beaten down again...
    * Why should we do anything now?
    * Brazil keeping inflation away...
    * ADP says 55,000 jobs created in May...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I suspect this will end up being a Fantastico Friday, but right now, not so much... Today is the Big Jobs Jamboree, and the cable news stations are spinning it quite nicely. So nicely put that stock jockeys are believing the spin and running stock futures higher. I've got that to talk about today, and more debt stuff... Believe me dear reader, I wish I didn't have to talk about this debt stuff, but I feel as though me and a few of my friends are the only ones doing so, and I don't want you to become like the rest of the country and become 'comfortably numb' with the deficit figures!...
  • Bank of Canada Is First in G-7 To Hike Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro's rally fizzles out...
    * Rates hikes are not over in Australia!
    * Japanese PM quits!
    * Brits offer advice to Greece.

    OK... Yesterday, I told you that the Bank of Canada (BOC) would meet today, and raise rates... Well, I got that 1/2 right! UGH! The BOC did raise rates, but they did it yesterday! Yes, the BOC became the first Central Bank in G-7 to raise rates, 1 1/2 years after the financial meltdown. The BOC tried to play down the move, by saying that they were not entering a rate hike cycle that would yield rate hikes meeting after meeting... But, with GDP, as reported here yesterday, running at 6.1% annualized, there are more rate hikes to come... It just won't be meeting after meeting... The BOC will sprinkle the fairy dust here, and a little there, some for themselves, and a little for us... A little more for them... HA!...
  • The Mini-Rally For Currencies Continues...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro takes baby steps higher...
    * Canadian Retail Sales disappoint...
    * Oil price plunge hurts petrol currencies...
    * Brazilian real drop on Wealth Fund selling...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... We made it through the weekend, here at the Butler house, just Alex and me. Had some visitors (friends) stop by Friday night, but after that, it was just us two. Good games yesterday, eh? I had all the snacks out on the table, and thought the older kids would stop by to watch games with us, but, that was a wasted effort on my part, as they did not, and then I had to clean all that up!

    Well... On Friday, the currencies kept with their mini-rebound VS the dollar, for the most part, as the Big Dog, euro crept higher and higher, but in tiny, baby steps for sure! It's as if traders are wanting to take the euro higher, and sell the dollar, but they just aren't sure, right now...

    Stocks got hammered on Friday in reaction to the President's proposed ban on proprietary trading in Banks... You know, it occurred to me that the Gov't does this, the media does this, and now I've gotten too lazy and do it... And that's to say 'Banks'... What they mean here are the investment Banks, like the Goldmans and the Morgan Stanleys... And yes it does include 'real' banks, but for the most part they are the ones that do more on the investment side than they do on the deposit side......
  • Are Fundamentals Creeping Back To The Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * A$, C$ and Gold maintain gains...
    * euros and reals get sold...
    * What will China do?
    * The slowest buffalo theory...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! January 6th... It's the Epiphany, or... The 12th day of Christmas! With it being the Epiphany, I wonder what will be revealed to us today regarding new deficit spending, or more corrupt government data...

    OK, that was a cheap shot, but, hey! Don't they deserve it? Always doing a hedonic adjustment here, there, and everywhere to make us 'feel good'... Oh well, I'll leave that there and go on to other things...

    This should be short-n-sweet this morning, as I overslept, something that I rarely do... Of course, I'm still here a good hour plus before anyone else, so I've got that going for me today!...
  • Risk Returns...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies maintain their gains...
    * Aussie and real jump higher!
    * U.S. manufacturing is stronger...
    * Following Japan...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Wow, it's cold here! I had to stop for gas this morning, and had some very bad thoughts about Al Gore, while standing there! That's funny! And, as one of my fave comedians says... 'that's funny, I don't care who you are!' HA

    Hey! I exchanged emails with the Mogambo Guru yesterday... He's such an interesting person! He's enjoying his time away from writing, playing golf, and spending his profits from Gold! If you need a Mogambo fix, you should check out this web site: www.bringbackmogambo.com

    OK... The first trading day of 2010, was interesting, as it certainly looked like risk was back on the table, and the Emerging Markets, and any currency that has some yield, were the beneficiaries of this return to risk taking. It certainly didn't take traders long to get back to dissin' the dollar in favor of these risk assets...I will warn you about this first day of the year move... Let's see if it carries through the rest of the week... If so, then the risk taking bus is about to leave the station, you might just want to be on that bus!

    ...
  • U.S. Companies To Repatriate Profits?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * More deficit spending...
    * 10-year yields at 3 month highs...
    * A nice 9-year run for the non-dollar currencies...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last Monday of 2009! And Yes... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Bet you were wishing I would remain on vacation through to the New Year... That's OK, I was wishing for the same thing last night! HA! I hope your Christmas or other celebration was grand... Mine was... Little Delaney Grace stole the show... I sat there watching her, thinking, how great it must be to not have a care in the world, except if her 'baby' needed changing!

    To not have to worry about deficit spending, knuckleheads making decisions against the wishes of their constituents, nut cakes running around shooting off missiles, and ramping up nuclear capabilities, and the beat goes on... The beat goes on......
  • Gold Soars To Another All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * $1,055 for Gold!
    * Global recovery prospects fuel run on the dollar...
    * Trichet to defend the dollar today?
    * Central Banks are diversifying...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining here in St. Louis, so, it must be Thursday! It's a big night for yours truly, but I'll talk about that at the end... We've got some big moves going on in the currencies and metals, so we had better get to it, and save the chit-chat for later, eh? But first, today is the funding deadline on our latest BRIC MarketSafe CD... We'll have one more in November and then that's it!

    OK, front and center this morning, Gold has soared to another all-time high! When I turned on the screen this morning, Gold was flashing a great big $1,055 figure... WOW! But wait! OK, now that sounded like an infomercial... But wait! If you act now, you can get double the Ginsu knives! HA! OK, getting back to the original, but wait... Gold and Silver for that matter, aren't the only risk assets moving higher this morning... All 16 of the countries that are deemed to be the biggest U.S. trading partners, have currencies that are taking liberties VS the dollar this morning......
  • The Dollar Gets Ambushed!

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies soar!
    * Weber gives the green light...
    * Is the Fed buying more Treasuries?
    * China considering IMF's Gold!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday that needs no 'turn-around', as the currency actions VS the dollar overnight are amazing! The dollar got ambushed overnight, as the euro shot right straight through the 1.47 handle, and has just traded 1.48! Hmmm... Didn't I say yesterday that the I didn't think the dollar strength we were seeing was any change in the recent trend? ... I love it when a plan comes together!...
  • U.S. Manufacturing On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets Get Sold!
    * ISM hits 52.9!
    * Aussie GDP rises!
    * China leading the way!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, all that back and forth between rally and sell off for the currencies came to an abrupt halt yesterday, when the dollar bulls went on a rampage. There was some very strong economic data to help the move, but the real thing that brought the currencies to their knees was the stock sell off of 185 points...

    Get this... Now we all know that the risk assets of stocks, commodities, and currencies have all been tied together for some time now... So, I was surprised to see a story titled: 'Currency Markets Taken For A Ride By Stocks' Hmmm, maybe this person just woke up from a 9-month coma, eh? Any way, that doesn't matter, it's just another opinion that coincides with mine!...
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • Fundamentals Return...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies & Gold move together!
    * Fed downgrades economic growth...
    * More on China...
    * Yen breaks the trading pattern...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' here, as the warm winds of spring have finally sprung, the Cardinals have won two in a row from the rival Cubs, and I'm headed to Busch Stadium tonight! Oh! And fundamentals, as far as currencies and metals are concerned, seemed to be in place yesterday...

    That's right... The rout on the dollar was on (recall yesterday, Wayne and Garth playing street hockey... Game On!) and this time... Not only did the currencies rally VS the dollar, Gold and Silver took part in the proceedings too! It's been a long time since we've seen this happen... For the most part, whenever the currencies (minus yen) rallied, Gold would back off, and vice versa... Not yesterday! For the first time in a long time, the negativity toward the dollar was front and center BIG TIME!...
  • Budget Deficit Triples!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound
    * Budget Deficit makes up for Trade data...
    * China's currency reserves continue to grow...
    * High yielders are best performers...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And a Happy Easter Monday to those who get the day off! I'm still battling this, whatever it is that I have, which means I spent the weekend in the sick bay... UGH! Oh well, we carry on... But... Talk about short-n-sweet... That's today's Pfennig for sure!

    The lack of volume on Friday didn't yield any wild swings, and the currencies pared their losses from the day before (trade deficit plunges)... This morning, the currencies, led by the euro, are moving higher VS the dollar, but at this point it's baby steps... The bias to sell dollars hangs over the currencies however... It seems to me that it's very much like trying to hold a kid back from ripping open their Christmas presents... It sure seems inevitable, but when is the question... As I used to say in my presentations, imagine if you will a big old Ford rambling down an icy country road, and it begins to spin out of control... You know for sure that you're heading toward that guard rail, and your Ford will make impact with that guard rail, it's just a matter of time.......
  • A Horrific Jobs Report!

    * 651K jobs lost in Feb... * Dec. and Jan Job losses revised up... * Talking Norway, Canada, Australia... * Brazil stealthlike for 3 months... ** A Horrific Jobs Report! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wonderful weekend here in St. Louis, a taste of spring was in the air. I got to spend some time with some of my closest friends on Friday night, a good time was had by all! Well... Our Fantastico Friday was interrupted by that horrific Jobs Jamboree number that printed Friday morning... 651K jobs were lost in February, which let me remind you is a couple of days shorter than other months. So, it could have been worse! Hard to believe that could be the case, but it's true. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, from 7.6% in January. The jobless rate is the highest since 1983. The economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone....