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  • A building block...

    * A quiet Friday... * Euro hits 1.30... * Chinese concern... * This week in data... ** A building block... Good day...And a Marvelous Monday to you. Its hard to believe that Monday morning is already upon us, where does the time go? Just as the currency market took a breather, our cold weather from last week decided to follow suit as it turned out to be a nice late winter weekend. Friday was fairly uneventful as the currencies traded in a tight range throughout the course of the day so it will be interesting to see how this week shapes up. Let's see if the currencies can build from last week...

    Volatility was basically non-existent during Friday trading with less than a .50% difference between the high and the low of the dollar index. The overall bias, however, was a weaker dollar and the euro held onto 1.29 for a majority of the day and was near 1.2920 as I left the desk. The pound and Swiss franc were the only two currencies left on the bench last week with losses of about 1% and 2.5% against the dollar respectively. The rest were able to turn in a decent week with the Swedish krona on top of the pile posting a 6.5% gain....
  • A Day Of Healing...

    * Currencies have a mini-rally... * Only to see profit taking overnight... * Gold rebounds too! * Retail Sales on board today... ** A Day Of Healing... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It was a Tub Thumpin' Wednesday yesterday for the currencies and Gold, after seeing them back off earlier this week! I'm in Jacksonville for a company event, and then on Friday morning, I head south to start my spring vacation! But first, some work to do here, and then on to the south! It was 29 degrees when I got in the car to leave for the airport yesterday morning... And it was 77 degrees when I finally arrived in Jacksonville! YAHOO! But even as loud as I can say YAHOO for the warm weather, which I've said over and over again, I've got to go where it's warm, it wasn't as loud as a the YAHOO yelped by currency owners as the euro led the currencies higher and higher all day long!...
  • A change in the Trading Theme?

    * A change in the Trading Theme? * Gold rebounds Big time! * ECB cuts 50 BPS, as expected... * Lots of lessons today... ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It supposed to be 70 degrees here today, so in my book that makes it a Fantastico Friday! It's also a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and while this report is probably not going to be anything good, it will be Fantastico BAD! The experts have forecast a job loss in February to be 650K!!!!!! Six Hundred and Fifty Thousand did I say? Yes, sir, may I have another, sir? Well, shiver me timbers, this is just downright awful! And if it prints this bad, it will be the most jobs lost in a month since 1949! This is horrific, just plain horrific folks... And in my opinion, will NOT signal the bottom of the barrel for labor just yet... This thing has momentum and I don't think you'd want to step in front of this run-away bus!...
  • The Trading Theme Returns...

    * U.S. data prints awful! * Eastern Europe gets 24.5 Billion euros! * More Problems for Citi... * Gold at a discount... ** The Trading Theme Returns... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Fantastico Friday! I don't know why, it's cold and rainy here, and we're supposed to get snow tonight... But Shoot Rudy, why not? Every day is a blessing, and Friday's are special! At least in my book! Well... Chris left me a note last night about the day's happenings, as I was "out of touch" all day. So... I guess it would be best to let Chris give us the recap on yesterday, eh? Here's Chris... "The big news on the day was the durable goods orders, which came in even worse than expected. The dollar had lost ground vs. most of the currencies up until the durable goods number came in. The bad data for the US sent the dollar back up as investors headed back to the 'safe haven' of US Treasuries. Initial jobless claims also came in well above expectations with continuing claims climbing over 5 million for the first time ever. Continuing claims have only climbed above 4.5 million twice since the data has been recorded. They hit 4.6 million in May of 1975 and again in October of 1982. These peaks were very short lived as the came at the height of these two recessions. The problem with today's numbers is that we are still at the beginning stages of our recession and the jobs numbers look to only get worse....
  • A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries?

    * The euro gets some wind in its sails... * Citigroup is seeking more bailout funds? * Gold hits $1,000! * The ghost of Humphrey-Hawkins... ** A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries? Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Sure seems as though I went from Friday to Monday, as I went out of town this past weekend, and before I knew it, I was driving to work this morning! UGH! There was a rumor on Friday that really sent the euro higher, and there was another rumor this past weekend about the Asian currencies... So... Let's look at those two items and more of course, as we begin the last week of February!...
  • Geithner's Plan Disappoints...

    * Trade Deficit to narrow further... * Currencies rally, then sell off... * Obama's stimulus loses backers... * Riksbank cuts 100 BPS unexpectedly... ** Geithner's Plan Disappoints... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Tim Geithner didn't experience a Terrific Tuesday, as I had wished for him... And now, it looks as though the shine is coming off the new President as more and more individuals are "not buying" his appeal to the nation to get a stimulus package passed... The currencies rallied and then sold off after Geithner gave the details of his "new and improved" plan... We've got some potential market moving data printing today and more! So... Let's go to the tape!...
  • Passing Out The Dollars...

    * Risk Takers return... * Bank of America gets more cash! * 30-year mortgages below 5%! * Looking for direction... ** Passing Out The Dollars... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday so far, let's keep it going, eh? It is downright cold here. I'm reminded of that one looooonnnnngggg winter I spent in Des Moines, Iowa... This artic cold was the "norm" for that winter there... I didn't need any other reason to move back to St. Louis, once the spring thaw came around! Well... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, we have a change in sentiment going on... The Risk Takers are back in the driver's seat this morning, as the markets are feeling better about things given that the remaining TARP money has been given to the Obama campers to dole out, and Bank of America came away with an emergency lifeline from the Gov't that totals about $138 Billion... $20 Billion in cash, right here, right now, with the rest spread out between liquidity access and guarantees... And... The TARP money... Given the fact that the Obama people have been itching like they just rolled around in poison ivy, to get their hands on that money... You've got to wonder... Are these guys going to do their best to out do the previous administration when it comes to piling up debts?...
  • Citi Gets More "Gov't Money"...

    * Bailout fuels a rally... * How long the rally last? * A slew of data today... * Thoughts from Jim Rogers... ** Citi Gets More "Gov't Money"... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Now that was quite the Investment Conference I just attended and gave two presentations to! Someone sent me a headline that appeared on the internet prior to the Conference that read: Three Kings of the Financial World on Tap to Speak for the Next WMI M2... And guess what? They considered me as one of those in the headline! WOW! OK, no... I'm not getting a big head, I've got my beautiful bride to keep me humble. She responded to hearing about this article with a heaping helping of, "OK King, take out the trash!" HAHAHAHAHAHA! OK... Chris left me some notes about the currency markets yesterday, so let's listen in to what Chris had to say, since he was here, and I was driving an hour to the airport in Fort Meyers, flying, and driving home yesterday. Herrrrreeee's Johnny! I mean Chris!...
  • Losses Keep Piling On!

    * Range bound currencies... * Stocks rebound... * So, you think Oil is expensive? * Gold prices back off... ** Losses Keep Piling On! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm running late today, was up most of the night with stomach problems, and overslept this morning. This is my last day on my 4-weeks treatment, so maybe by this time next week, I'll be able to feel normal again. But, it's a Friday! And... I'll be gone the next 3-weeks! First to Vancouver, where I'll still write the Pfennig each day, but then on vacation, and on to San Francisco... I'll be back in the saddle on August 11th... Well... We had a range bound day in the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief at JP Morgan's 2nd QTR earnings... JP Morgan beat the estimates, but the thing I don't get is why there was dancing in the streets when those earnings were 53% below those a year ago. So, good for them for beating the estimates, but 53% below last year, I would certainly think it would have raised a few eyebrows... In fact, JP Morgan head man, Jamie Dimon said, "Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."...
  • Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

    * More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......