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  • Consumer Confidence Tumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies range trade
    * Aussie CPI prints soft...
    * RBNZ to hike rates tonight...
    * Oil drop pushes loonies lower...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home again this morning, as I have to deal with my car again. They told me it was fixed, I drove it about 10 miles to find out it wasn't! UGH! I must have the guy that failed 'car repairs' 10 times before passing...

    OK... The currency action yesterday was, while range traded, up and down, and all around. Yesterday morning I told you that the euro had broken above 1.30, and I would check it to see how long it remained there... Well, this time it was more than 10 minutes, and the euro rose to 1.3040... But then the rug was pulled from under the single unit, and it was back below 1.30 it went... In fact, it fell to just above 1.29, before then turning around once again and heading higher, eventually ending the day at 1.30....
  • FOMC Day – 06/23/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * A tight trading range day...
    * High yielders underperform...
    * Franc at all-time high VS euro...
    * Gold gets back on rally tracks...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's also a BIG DAY for the U.S. Men's soccer team... Yes, I know they call it football in all corners of the world but here... Our Soccer legend, Ty Keough, calls the U.S. version of football, 'the gridiron'! Any way, it's a Big Day for the Men's team... Win and they are assured of moving on.

    Yesterday, after the currencies had sold off in the overnight sessions, they traded throughout the U.S. session in a tight range, with a bias to move higher, but not being able to mount any kind of sustained move against the dollar....
  • Brazil Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally holds on to gains...
    * Rate hikes begin to add up...
    * Trade & Budget Deficit monsters...
    * Canada posts a trade surplus!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's go on record right out of the starters' blocks this morning, and say this will be a Fantastico Friday, eh?

    Well... What a rally in the risk assets yesterday! And for once, when the rally fizzled out yesterday afternoon, profits weren't taken in the overnight markets... Instead we saw a consolidation, if you will, of the price gains on Thursday in the overnight markets. That's nice to see, eh? For it had been the pattern of recent times to just sell off any gains, and end up back on square one, or even lower than the starting level. So, like I said, this was very nice to see... I checked the levels last night before I went to bed, and noticed that there had not been any sell off, and thought, what a great Friday it would be tomorrow, if these can hold throughout the night... And they did!...
  • A Vote Of Confidence!

    In This Issue..

    * China boosts euros...
    * Chinese exports soar!
    * RBNZ hikes rates!
    * Bernanke on the "hill"!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well, we have a new Stanley Cup Champion, and plenty more to talk about today! The Mid-West has been in one of those weather patterns that sees the day heat up, then produce violent storms, and then clears up... Sometimes it seems as though this lasts forever!

    OK... Well, Front and Center this morning, the euro is pushing higher on some words from Asia... Seems that China is very much behind the euro, and made statements related to that thought, which really put some starch in the euro's shorts overnight. The thing I worry about right now, is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting that's going on as I type my fat fingers to the bone... The ECB could crush this mini-rally in the euro in a heartbeat by saying the 'wrong thing' at their press conference that will be held after the ECB announces that rates will remain unchanged.

    ...
  • A Rate Hike For Australia...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro continues to get sold...
    * RBA shocks markets with statement...
    * Brazilian real bucks the trend...
    * Gold continues to move higher...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thanks for all the 'Welcome Back' notes and e-mails yesterday... It helped make the day rush by in a heartbeat! Before I knew it, I was yawning, and getting tired, so... Out the door I went! But all-in-all, it was good to be back in the saddle, and to see all my colleagues here at EverBank again.

    Well... Front and Center this morning, is the fact that the NY boys and girls didn't like the Greek Bailout one iota yesterday, sending the single unit below 1.32... When the traders in Asia and London returned last night and this morning, they too did not like what they saw and sent the euro even lower......
  • FOMC keeps rates low...

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC keeps rates low...
    * Carry trade is back on...
    * Senators try to legislate a higher renminbi...
    * An Irish toast...

    Top of the mornin to ye... Happy St. Patrick's Day to all of the Irish readers, and all of those who are Irish for the day! Both Chuck and I have pretty deep Irish roots, and St. Patrick's Day is always one of our favorites. Chuck will be spending the day enjoying baseball in the sunshine of Florida; and I will be heading to Florida myself later today. Speaking of which, I have to catch a plane in a couple of hours, so I better get going on today's Pfennig.

    ...
  • Loose Lips, Sink Ships...

    In This Issue..

    * Greek PM stops currency rally...
    * Will Fed stop mortgage buying program?
    * Aussie jobs report is strong!
    * The history of a Pfennig For Your Thoughts...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The monsoons are coming to the Midwest... I believe I saw the weather report for this area showing rain today and the rest of the week... I should leave my car outside, to get a 'wash'! HA!

    Well... During World War II, there was a saying, that, 'loose lips, sink ships'... I think Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, should have taken those words to heart yesterday... You see, the currencies, led by the beleaguered euro, were rallying, and the single unit was nearing 1.37, when Papandreou made a statement that sunk the rally's ship... He said that 'Greece's debt problems could soon spread to the rest of Europe and mean a weaker euro'...
  • Exceptionally Low For An Extended Period...

    In This Issue..

    * Old Trading Theme rises up again...
    * Currencies sell off then rebound overnight...
    * U.S. New Homes Sales Decline...
    * It's somebody's birthday today!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's me... I thought it best to cancel my San Antonio trip, so Jen can get to Florida to be with her family. This is the second time that I've backed out of speaking engagement with this private group, I sure hope they don't think I'm avoiding them!

    Front and Center this morning... It's Chris Gaffney's Birthday! So... This will be the 'Chris Gaffney Birthday Edition of the Pfennig'! Chris is 10 years younger than me, so yesterday when he said 'I'm an old man now' I about fell out of my chair! He's not even 50! Oh well...

    For Chris' Birthday, I'm going to buy him lunch, and... Talk briefly about the State of the Union Address, only to the extent of how it affected the currencies, and the FOMC statement yesterday, and other things... Just for Chris' Birthday! HA!...
  • Abu Dhabi Provides $10 Billion Bailout...

    In This Issue..

    * A Huge Friday Sell off!
    * U.S. Retail Sales are strong...
    * Testing the risk waters again...
    * Norges Bank & Riksbank meet this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Friday turned out to be Fantastico, as I had hope for, and the weekend was for resting, as I was on my feed too much Friday night. It was NOT a Fantastico Friday for the non-dollar currencies, though... I'll get to that in a minute... First though, I want to crow a bit on the Dubai debt problems...

    It was announced this morning that Dubai's government received $10 Billion in financing from Abu Dhabi... Hmmm... You know, I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago, when this debt /loan repayment problem was announced, that in the end, the Abu Dhabi government would step in to bail out Dubai, for the people running the two governments are blood related, and even though there had been shots fired between the two, blood would run thick here... And voila that's exactly what happened!...
  • Green Light, Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC minutes make it a Risk On Day!
    * Gold hits $1,180!
    * Germany's ZEW is bang on with their forecast!
    * Russia to buy loonies?

    It's a Risk On Day, full on, no 'kind of' today! Or at least that's how it looks as I begin to write this morning... The Big Dog, euro, is back over 1.50 this morning, and Gold is trading at $1,177! What brought about this full on Risk On day?

    Well... It was the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes... And, when I read what the Fed Heads had to say, I had one song in my mind... Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Because that's where their collective heads are with these minutes, folks... The Fed Heads viewed the U.S. economy on firmer footing and expects the growth to continue in the 4th QTR... Yeah, right, and I've got some swamp land I'd like to sell you! Snake Oil salesmen these guys!

    Any way... The Fed Heads also said that the dollar's depreciation had been 'orderly'... With no mention of doing anything to stop the depreciation! Green light, Green light, Green light... How many of these Green lights do traders and you need to realize that the Fed isn't going to stop the dollar's decline? And How about the Treasury? Oh! That's right, they're too busy shoving negative yields down people's throats! OK, I'm getting all ticked off, and I really don't feel like doing that today, so I'm going to talk about something else, fast!...
  • ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...
    * Trichet makes a mistake in judgment...
    * Asian central banks defend the $..
    * Gold pauses...

    Good day...Had a horrible night here in St. Louis, as every one of our teams let victory slip away. As you all know, Chuck drove to Columbia to watch his MIZZOU Tigers take on one of their arch rivals in a rare Thursday night matchup. The game went well into the night, as it was delayed due to problems with the lights at the stadium, so Chuck probably didn't get home until early this morning. I'll have the con on the Pfennig today, but Chuck will be back in the saddle again on Monday.

    As predicted, both European central banks kept interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows in an effort to keep stimulating their economies. Trichet signaled that the ECB has no plans to raise rates in the near future, stating that the current level is 'appropriate' for the current economic environment. 'The recovery is expected to be rather uneven,' Trichet said. 'It will be supported in the short term by temporary factors but will be hampered in the medium term by balance sheet issues at financial and non-financial institutions.'...
  • Gold Soars To An All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * It was all about Gold yesterday!
    * Commodity Currencies take the lead today...
    * The story behind the euro's non-move...
    * Budget data prints today...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What a day for Gold yesterday! WOW! In case you were trapped in a cave and didn't hear the news... Gold, which I said yesterday morning looked like it was going to take out its all-time high, did take out its all-time high, and not just take it out! Gold pushed past the all-time high of $1,033.90, and didn't stop until it was trading $1,047 and change! WOW! No check that... Double WOW!

    The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike the previous night, opened the door to this run by Gold, as the Gold Bugs all came out and bought the preferred investment to counter soaring inflation... You see, if the RBA is raising rates, when most every other Central Bank is stuck in the mud with near zero rates, the RBA must see something, eh?...
  • RBA Raises Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Pandora's Box of rate hikes is opened!
    * Is the dollar being removed from oil trades?
    * Deficits do matter, eh?
    * Gold heads toward its all-time high...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday morning that is seeing a HUGE currency rally VS the dollar on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to go ahead and hike rates now, and not wait for November's meeting, as I had thought they would do! WOW!

    The first hike... It has opened Pandora's Box of interest rate hikes around the world... For, if the RBA went this soon, then we can expect Norway's Norges Bank to push their rate hike earlier on the calendar, maybe even later this month! And they won't be the only ones! Look for New Zealand to hike rates this year, and who knows what other country (Brazil?) will follow after that... But I see them coming, and they're marching the death march of the dollar!...
  • Riksbank Holds Off On QE...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * German Investor Confidence rises!
    * Thoughts from Jim Rogers...
    * Kohn on the economy...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm staring at all this white space on the Pfennig template, and I absolutely drew a blank... I couldn't think of, or can't think of a thing to say! Whoa there partner! That can't happen! There's got to be something, anything, to talk about... OK! I'm back now, I really have no idea where that was going, it was an out of body experience! HAHAHAHA!

    OK... The currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, after the dollar had ambushed them on Friday and in the Sunday night trading sessions. It's been a week since we saw currency strength, other than Japanese yen. So, we should be due for a bounce. There continues to be more whispering about the eventual dollar weakness, but for now, it's not enough to get us back to where the dollar should be trading on a fundamentals basis....
  • A New Year’s Jobs Jamboree Friday...

    * Will the ADP report be a good indicator? * China to slow treasury purchases? * Gold as a store of wealth... * Dealing with the devil... ** A Jobs Jamboree Friday... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, as it is forecast to get to 50 degrees today here in St. Louis. Never mind that tomorrow's high will be 29! It doesn't take away from today! What a trading day in the currencies yesterday... Whew! It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, so let's not beat around the bush... It's time to Jamboree! Today is the day the Gov't prints the December Jobs Jamboree, and if Wednesday's ADP report did what they said it was going to, and that is change their methodology to mirror the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) then this morning's Jobs Jamboree will be a nightmare. Of course not the kind of nightmare that the over 2.5 million people that lost jobs in 2008 had! I was once in those numbers, as our old Bank, Mark Twain Bank, was bought by a bigger bank, Mercantile Bank, and Mercantile decided after a few months to perform ethnic cleansing of Mark Twain employees... I called it "my retirement" but with a 3 year old at home and on my lap most of the day, "retirement" couldn't last too long! My point is that you don't know the emptiness and failure you feel when they show you the door... So my thoughts are always with those that lose their jobs......