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  • Chuck's Back, So Currency Rally Ends.

    In This Issue.

    * Chinese data lifts global growth outlook.

    * Gold likes the Chinese data..

    * Eurozone to exit recession?.

    * Indian rupee gets some long-awaited love.

    ...
  • Whispering Campaign Begins To Get Traction.

    In This Issue.

    * Stocks fall is this Déjà vu?

    * Euro rallies, dragging the Scandis with it.

    * Australia prints a strong Retail Sales report!

    * Gold reaches for the stars once again.

    ...
  • Putting The Doubts To Bed...

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies & Precious metals rally...

    * Strong Aussie Consumer Confidence...

    * Loonie nears parity...

    * A trip back to 1985...

    ...
  • 2nd QTR GDP Today...

    In This Issue..

    * A flat trading day in currencies...

    * 473,000 newly unemployed last week...

    * Kan ready to take "bold action"...

    * Ludwig von Mises on a Friday!

    ...
  • New Home Sales Plunge!

    In This Issue..

    * More bad data in the U.S. weighs on dollar...

    * Who are you going to believe?

    * Gold & Silver rebound nicely on bad U.S. data...

    * No follow through on Japanese jawboning...

    ...
  • FOMC Day ...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Off Day...

    * Will FOMC bring about new QE?

    * China prints 18-month high Trade Surplus!

    * Sorting out the Asian currencies...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    FOMC Day...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I had another visit to the dentist last night... My mouth is still pretty sore this morning, so it's a good thing I'm not talking to you, but writing instead! HA!

    Well, that slippage that I was seeing yesterday morning turned into a dollar rally, and has continued throughout the night with the euro losing 1 1/4-cents... It's about the same with Aussie dollars (A$), and the Norwegian krone, which I highlighted yesterday, and gave it the old "Pfennig kiss of death"!

    ...
  • A Dollar Roadblock!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.42...
    * Geithner make another promise to China...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The currencies, led by the euro, ran into a dollar road block yesterday, not once, not twice, but three times... The first two times the euro traded over the 1.42 figure, it fell back, but recovered to again try to remain over 1.42... It was a classic case of profit taking at a line of resistance... But the third time, was no charm for the euro, and thus it ended the day and night sessions below 1.42... But hey! Has this run from 1.2578 on March 1st, been something or what?

    I see where UBS believes this is it for the euro... Sort of like the thought that a star burns the brightest right before it burns out... Hmmm... I guess they believe that the U.S. deficit problems are going to go away... Apparently, they drank the kool-aid from U.S. Treasury Sec. Geithner, who told the Chinese that the U.S. was going to shrink the deficit... He also told them that their assets were 'safe'... Ty sent me something on this that he found yesterday......
  • Dollar falls as US consumer confidence increases...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar falls as US consumers become more positive...
    * GDP to be reported this morning...
    * European confidence increases...
    * Mexican peso recovers...

    Good day... Hopefully this will reach everyone today. We have been having some computer problems causing some major delays in the delivery of your Pfennig. As Chuck always says, if you need your Pfennig, just go to www.dailypfennig.com where it is posted each morning as soon as I hit the send button. For those of you who feel the need, the website also has an archive, so you can all read what I had to say yesterday. But enough about our email problems, you all want to know what is happening in the markets.

    The dollar began the day trading in a fairly tight range, but a fairly large jump in US consumer confidence sent the US$ tumbling. Yes, the old 'opposite' trading pattern has begun again. When we have good news regarding the US and global economies, the US$ gets sold. But when the data is bad, the dollar is purchased as a safe haven. Yesterday both pieces of data released in the US were more positive than most economists expected, so the dollar gave back some of its recent 'safe haven' gains....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * RBA cuts 25 BPS...
    * Eurozone recession deepens...
    * Oil backs off...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! OK... I'll get to Opening Day in the Big Finish today, first, and foremost, I need to tell you about a guy that really threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, causing a BIG scare and sell off of risk assets... Currencies that is...

    His name is Mike Mayo, and he used to work at Deutsche Bank, and now is a banking analyst at Caylon Securities... And brother can he ever move a market! To make a long story short... Mr. Mayo basically said yesterday in a report that 'Bank Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels'... So, all that James Brown, feeling good, that went on last week with the G-20 singing everything is beautiful, all went down the drain after Mr. Mayo spoke......
  • A "Stock Tip From The Top Guy!"

    * Australia's economy contracts.... * Bank of Canada cuts rates to .50% * Meeting margin calls... * TALF... ** A 'Stock Tip From The Top Guy!' Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beautiful bride is getting ready to leave this morning. I'm not used to 'talking' to someone when I get up at my usual early hour! She'll be gone in a few, as I write, and then it will be my little buddy, Alex, and your Pfennig writer on their own for 5 days! YAHOO! Well... After a day of waxing eloquently about the how well the Aussie economy was doing compared to the rest of the world, they go and post a contraction in their economic growth! UGH! That's the way to show me up! The Aussie economy shrank in the 4th QTR by .5% VS the forecast of .2% growth... The news scared the markets into believing the Asian problem will be worse off than previously thought. Oh Come On! Australia is STILL doing better than most countries, especially those that I listed in yesterday's Pfennig!...
  • It’s a Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    * BOE cuts 50 BPS... * ECB keeps rates unchanged... * Initial Jobless claims hit a record! * Recession or Depression? ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, and Jobs Jamboree Friday to boot! You should have seen the crowd that gathered for my second presentation yesterday... WOW! Jason tells me that he had to turn away about 50 people that couldn't jam into the room! I guess people are still interested in what I have to say... Either that or, no one else was speaking at that time! HA! Another very tight trading range for the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars... And for once this bias to buy dollars didn't include buying Japanese yen, as yen fell 2 whole figures yesterday! You have to wonder if the words coming out of Capitol Hill that they will vote on the Stimulus package soon, has the risk takers dipping their toes back into Carry Trades, for yen is weaker and the Aussie dollar (a high yielder, even in today's zero rate environment) is stronger... It's not just a co-in-que-dink!...
  • Talking Stimulus...

    * A very tight range for currencies... * RBA cuts rates to historic low! * Spending that doesn't create jobs... * Gold see profit taking... ** Talking Stimulus... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! On the road again, I just can't wait to get on the road again... Yes, all my bags are packed and I'm ready to go! Won't be back until late Saturday night, and back in the saddle next Monday. And I'm leaving just in time, as yet another cold front has moved into St. Louis! UGH! Well... Let's see... What to talk about today? I could talk about the Aussie rate cut and stimulus package... I could talk about the "new and improved" stimulus package and all the "non-stimulus spending attached to it... I could talk about how it sure seems as though the euro, and then the other currencies, are taking their cues to rally from equities... Now, this is certainly a short term phenomenon because we all know that currencies have different pricing mechanisms than stocks, and a very low correlation to stocks, which is why they make excellent diversification assets, along with Gold and Silver....
  • Chock-Full-O-Data Week!

    In This Issue.. * BNP Paribas weighs on the euro... * China and Treasuries... * Euro forming a base? * Gold continues its rally... ** Chock-Full-O-Data Week! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And a new week... The last week of one of my least fave months too! A week for us, that's supposed to be snowy, icy and cold, all starting, supposedly, tonight. A fitting way for January to end! I don't have my currency screens again this morning, don't know what happened over the weekend here, but, once again, I could have remained at home to write this, if I "KNEW"! OK... Enough! No whining to start the week, Chuck! There's so much economic happenings, and data this week, that should be enough to get your mind off of not having currency screens! OK, I'll try... Here's goes! OK, right out of the starters blocks this morning, we have the fear of such rotten data due this week, that the Trading Theme that rewards the dollar for this deep, dark, more dangerous data (strange thinking, I know, and against all that I've ever learned about what makes up a value of a currency, which leads me to believe this will end at some time), should be set in stone this week... The euro is trading below 1.30 this morning, but stronger than it was on Friday morning. Let me tell you about a story that hit the news wires (wires that I can't see this morning!) on Friday mid-morning......
  • A New Year!

    * Currencies range trade... * With a bias to buy dollars... * Recession deepens in Eurozone... * India cuts rates... ** A New Year! Good day... Happy New Year! And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, I bet it will be, as most people are still on "holiday". I hope your New Year's celebration went well, mine did, spent with good friends, after a simply scrumptious dinner! Yesterday, we spent the day with friends again, as good friend Rick, had everyone and their brother to his new house to celebrate the New Year... I'm worn out! Good thing this is a quick shot work day, and then onto the weekend, because I'm spent! Well, enough of all that! The currencies traded in a very tight range on Wednesday, and I expect more of that today. The bias has been to buy dollars going into the year-end, and it looks as though that might be the case today, as there's been no data to speak of in the U.S., while the Eurozone printed a very weak manufacturing index report, indicating that the Eurozone's recession is deepening. Of course if we compared apples to apples the bias would be to buy euros, but since there hasn't been any "real" economic data in a couple of days from the U.S. this report from the Eurozone gets all the attention....
  • King Henry Was Wrong Again!

    * Bailout package is voted down! * Biggest one day point drop for the DOW! * Dollar rallies hard... * Carry trades unwind... Again! ** King Henry Was Wrong Again! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Guess who was wrong AGAIN! That's right, King Henry Paulson, he of the U.S. Treasury Sec. throne... He told the world on Friday, that the bailout package was a "done deal"... And he told us again on Sunday that it was a "done deal"... The markets rejoiced, the stock jockeys danced in the streets, the karma flowed and all the stars were in alignment... And then... A (not so) funny thing happened on the way to the forum... King Henry's men revolted, and the bailout package did NOT have the votes to pass it, and the "done deal" was "undone"! Once again this man has led investors down the wrong path. I've documented the wrong statements by this man in the past year, and still, investors hang on every word by King Henry... When will they ever learn? When, will, they, ev-er learn?...