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  • US consumer confidence on the rise...

    In This Issue..

    * US consumer confidence on the rise...
    * Improved labor markets could bring higher US rates...
    * Norway has a good day...
    * Frank heads to Vancouver and begins his blog...

    Good day, the last day of March is finally here. March was a good month, but I like the sound of April as it brings us warmer weather and the opening day of the baseball season. While there was a lot of talk about the fall of the Euro during the past month, March actually turned out to be a good month for currency investors. The Euro was down slightly (.58% v.s the US$) but it was only one of 4 currencies which dropped vs. the dollar. The biggest loser in March was the Japanese yen, which was down 4.52%; but none of the other 4 currencies were down more than .6%. The top performers were the high yielders of the South African rand and Mexican Peso, both of which were over 3% higher vs. the US$ during past month. March was also a good month for the commodity based currencies of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

    ...
  • Gold Hits $1,200!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day...
    * Swiss franc hits parity to the dollar!
    * RBA to continue raising rates in 2010...
    * BRIC MarketSafe CD funding closes tomorrow!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... It's another Risk On Day, at this point after the overnight sessions of Asia and Europe. Although there seemed to be some traders that wanted to exit risk assets... The moves were strange... Ain't if funny how the night moves? When it seems you don't have much to lose? OMG, here I am quoting Bob Seeger at 5 A.M.!

    Traders in the overnight markets allowed the Big Dog euro to remain above 1.51, which it scaled to yesterday afternoon. We saw some data in the U.S. yesterday that flashed a green light at the risk takers, so... As we begin today, the Aussie and kiwi dollars are soaring once again, and the Swiss franc has moved past parity against the dollar...

    ...
  • It's A Risk On Monday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies recover from Friday sell off!
    * Gold also recovers!
    * RBA to meet tonight!
    * Canada to exit their recession?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was special. I had a great time on my day off on Friday, as we went to the country and cut down our Christmas Tree. Quite early for us this year, but you have to take advantage of the 'windows' of time when they pop open! I have to say something front and center this morning though... Last week when I would say we need to give thanks to groups of people, I missed out on something very special to me... My health... I'm thankful that I was allowed to fight cancer, and be around now when my little granddaughter, Delaney Grace is so darn cute!

    OK... Front and center on the currencies this morning, we have the fears of a default in Dubai, fading, and that brings the risk takers back out... So, we had one day of bloodletting on Friday, and come Monday, it'll be alright, Come Monday, I'll be holding you tight, no wait! Come Monday, the tourniquet had been applied, and things are back on track. The Big Dog, euro is off the porch, chasing the dollar down the street once again, and is trading at 1.5050, as I begin to write this morning.

    ...
  • More Baby Steps For A German Economic Recovery...

    In This Issue..

    * German unemployment falls!
    * RBA disappoints the markets...
    * China to buy Canadian company...
    * ISM to print positive?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September! Well... Here's a thought to get our engines started this morning... Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning ( www.dailyreckoning.com )had this to add to my ranting about our National Debt going to over $20 Trillion in the next 10 years, due to deficit spending...

    'The Obama administration, for example, expects to run $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years - and that number is based on a recovery! Imagine what will happen if the economy doesn't recover?'

    ...
  • A building block...

    * A quiet Friday... * Euro hits 1.30... * Chinese concern... * This week in data... ** A building block... Good day...And a Marvelous Monday to you. Its hard to believe that Monday morning is already upon us, where does the time go? Just as the currency market took a breather, our cold weather from last week decided to follow suit as it turned out to be a nice late winter weekend. Friday was fairly uneventful as the currencies traded in a tight range throughout the course of the day so it will be interesting to see how this week shapes up. Let's see if the currencies can build from last week...

    Volatility was basically non-existent during Friday trading with less than a .50% difference between the high and the low of the dollar index. The overall bias, however, was a weaker dollar and the euro held onto 1.29 for a majority of the day and was near 1.2920 as I left the desk. The pound and Swiss franc were the only two currencies left on the bench last week with losses of about 1% and 2.5% against the dollar respectively. The rest were able to turn in a decent week with the Swedish krona on top of the pile posting a 6.5% gain....
  • Shrove Tuesday!

    * No follow through on the Eurozone bond idea... * Mirror, mirror on the wall... * AIG to set record for losses... * Finding another Pfennig Reader! ** Shrove Tuesday! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Shrove Tuesday to boot! Shrove Tuesday you say with a tone of thinking that I have made up another word for a day? Yes... Shrove Tuesday! For Catholics in some regions of the world (Ireland originally), the day before Ash Wednesday is Shrove Tuesday... Or here in the U.S. it's Pancake Day! You see, long ago, pancakes would be served up on this day as a popular way to use up fat, butter and eggs before Lent got underway. So... Happy Shrove Tuesday!...
  • A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries?

    * The euro gets some wind in its sails... * Citigroup is seeking more bailout funds? * Gold hits $1,000! * The ghost of Humphrey-Hawkins... ** A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries? Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Sure seems as though I went from Friday to Monday, as I went out of town this past weekend, and before I knew it, I was driving to work this morning! UGH! There was a rumor on Friday that really sent the euro higher, and there was another rumor this past weekend about the Asian currencies... So... Let's look at those two items and more of course, as we begin the last week of February!...
  • Veteran's Day

    * The China good feeling dissipates... * Currencies lose their edge... * Fannie Mae needs more! * Silver manipulation? ** Veteran's Day Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Veteran's Day Tuesday! This is a Banking and Federal Holiday today, so the bricks and mortar banks are closed, and there will be no mail delivery, and of course your friendly neighborhood Government worker gets the day off. I'm here, in the saddle, writing the Pfennig like it's a regular work day, and the boys and girls will begin to gather in about 2 1/2 hours from now. We'll get all caught up, return some calls and head home today. Veteran's Day... I thought I would begin today with a snippet of a Veteran's Day poem by Jared Jenkins......
  • FOMC Meeting Begins Today...

    * Mini-currency rally is cut short * Is it Japan or U.S.? * Gold stages a rally... * Swiss francs remain well bid... ** FOMC Meeting Begins Today... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... We saw some profit taking in the currencies yesterday, which meant a mini-rally in non-dollar currencies for the first time in what seems to be a month of Sundays! At one point in the day, the euro had added more than 1-cent to its figure dragging sterling, Swiss, Canada and a host of others along. But, that didn't last in the overnight markets, and we're right smack dab back on square one where we left off yesterday. This morning we'll listen in on former Fed Chairman Volcker's speech, which ought to be a good one, don't you think? I mean, this is the guy that said a couple of years ago that the U.S. could see a currency crisis... And didn't it? OK, it's not now, but turn your clocks back to June, and you'll see what I'm talking about here. Volcker is a "hero" of mine in how he took on the inflation of the late 70's early 80's and didn't dance around the dance floor with it... He whipped it into shape, and then left it all in good shape for Big Al Greenspan... We all know what happened after that!...
  • Congratulations to Chuck...

    * Great news from Chuck... * FOMC could lower rates... * TIC flows to slow... * Yen and SFR continue to rally... ** Congratulations to Chuck... Good day... I want to start this mornings Pfennig off with a note Chuck sent the trade desk last night: "The doctor called, and I'm CLEAN! My scans were clean, and, I'm officially off the Sutent, and considered a "Cancer Survivor" now! YIPPEE!" I know the markets are in a state of turmoil, but that great news from Chuck took precedence over anything I could write about the currencies. It looks like Chuck's positive attitude along with all of our prayers have beaten back the cancer (I guess his doctors and the new medicines deserve some of the credit also). Congratulations to Chuck, can't wait to shake his hand when he returns from the first week of the FXU tour. But now lets move on to the markets. I was so focused on the Wall Street turmoil yesterday that I failed to mention the FOMC will be meeting today. Just a few weeks ago, the markets were calling for an interest rate increase by the Fed to tackle inflation. But the events of this past weekend, along with a dramatic drop in the price of oil, has many calling for another interest rate cut. The Central Bank has already injected billions of money into the markets to try and calm them after the bankruptcy of Lehman. The Federal Reserve yesterday added $70 billion in reserves, the most since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. The funds were needed as banks and financial firms tightened up their lending in reaction to the financial turmoil....
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    * The dollar's mini-rally fades... * Weekly jobless claims jump to 407K! * Swiss inflation rises! * Final Four weekend!...
  • Another Large Rate Cut From The Fed...

    * Are there more rate cuts coming? * Yen and Swiss kicking sand... * Emerging Markets High Yielders fall... * Buying Opportunities in Gold and Silver?...
  • Fed Force Feeds Funds Into the System...

    * Fed cuts discount rate...* Swiss franc above parity... * Japanese yen continues to climb... * Gold blows through $1,000......
  • Bank of Canada Makes a Larger Than Expected Cut...

    * Bank of Canada cuts 50 bp... * Trichet supports strong dollar policy... * Swiss economy surprisingly strong.. * Aussie dollar eases... ...
  • Finally... A Breather!

    * Japanese yen looking good! * High Yielders knocked off the roost! * More recession looking data in the U.S.... * What Me Worry?...