Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Looking Under The Hood.

    In This Issue.

    * Currency rally is stopped by Slovakia vote.

    * Gold up $30 yesterday, down $16 this morning.

    * Trichet, Slovakia weigh heavily on euro.

    * Explaining the PPT.

    ...
  • IEA Releases Oil Reserves.

    In This Issue.

    * Trichet deep sixes euro.

    * And Gold!

    * German Business Confidence rises.

    * Have we become Comatose?

    ...
  • Back To the Greece Debacle...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies overnight...
    * Gold loses $10...
    * Retail Sales for December are negative!
    * Chinese games with the renminbi continue...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I said on the way to work, as I hit each stop light on green, that it was going to be a Fantastico Friday! I mean, why not? 1. it's a Friday, 2. it's a payday Friday, 3. it's the start of a 3-day Holiday weekend! Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, as I drove to work, 'nothing can spoil this day'...

    But... Then I got to work, turned on the currency screens, and it hit me like a slap in the face! The euro has led the non-dollar currencies down VS the dollar overnight... After spending 3 days this week, hovering back and forth over and under the 1.45 handle, the euro finally succumbed to some selling......
  • It’s A Jobs Jamboree Friday for 12/04/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * Commodity Currencies rebound...
    * Gold sees profit taking...
    * Canary in a coal mine...
    * It's Moving Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's Moving Day for us here in the EverBank St. Louis office, as we will pick up our belongings and walk next door, to a larger, space, with some incredible views! We moved into this space 5 years ago, and we've been busting at the seams, with the threads holding on to dear life, for over a year now... So, this move is welcomed. Like I said the other day, in 1999, I sat in an office that we rented from the kind folks at Paylinx, and that was the beginning... From that tiny office to this! WOW!

    ...
  • Dollar continues to fall...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar moves lower...
    * China to take a role at IMF...
    * US Borrow and spend policies continue...
    * Gold sets a new record...

    Good day...and what a day it was in the currency markets on Tuesday! The rout on the dollar continued, and was broad based with gains in every currency we trade. The commodity based currencies led the pack, as the weaker dollar fueled a big run up in raw material prices. Reports out of both Asia and Europe signaled the global economy is recovering, and bolstered investors looking for a way out of the falling dollar.

    European industrial output rose for a fourth month in August, increasing just below 1 percent from July. From a year earlier, August output fell 15.4%, a big drop but still the smallest YOY decline in 8 months. The Euro area continues to recover 'at a gradual pace' according to ECB President Trichet. The positive news coming from the manufacturing sector is a good sign the European economic recovery will be sustainable....
  • ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...
    * Trichet makes a mistake in judgment...
    * Asian central banks defend the $..
    * Gold pauses...

    Good day...Had a horrible night here in St. Louis, as every one of our teams let victory slip away. As you all know, Chuck drove to Columbia to watch his MIZZOU Tigers take on one of their arch rivals in a rare Thursday night matchup. The game went well into the night, as it was delayed due to problems with the lights at the stadium, so Chuck probably didn't get home until early this morning. I'll have the con on the Pfennig today, but Chuck will be back in the saddle again on Monday.

    As predicted, both European central banks kept interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows in an effort to keep stimulating their economies. Trichet signaled that the ECB has no plans to raise rates in the near future, stating that the current level is 'appropriate' for the current economic environment. 'The recovery is expected to be rather uneven,' Trichet said. 'It will be supported in the short term by temporary factors but will be hampered in the medium term by balance sheet issues at financial and non-financial institutions.'...
  • Gold Soars To Another All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * $1,055 for Gold!
    * Global recovery prospects fuel run on the dollar...
    * Trichet to defend the dollar today?
    * Central Banks are diversifying...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining here in St. Louis, so, it must be Thursday! It's a big night for yours truly, but I'll talk about that at the end... We've got some big moves going on in the currencies and metals, so we had better get to it, and save the chit-chat for later, eh? But first, today is the funding deadline on our latest BRIC MarketSafe CD... We'll have one more in November and then that's it!

    OK, front and center this morning, Gold has soared to another all-time high! When I turned on the screen this morning, Gold was flashing a great big $1,055 figure... WOW! But wait! OK, now that sounded like an infomercial... But wait! If you act now, you can get double the Ginsu knives! HA! OK, getting back to the original, but wait... Gold and Silver for that matter, aren't the only risk assets moving higher this morning... All 16 of the countries that are deemed to be the biggest U.S. trading partners, have currencies that are taking liberties VS the dollar this morning......
  • Yet Another Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * G-20 to shun an exit from stimulus?
    * Gold and Silver and Oil... A new trend?
    * Loonies follow the commodities higher...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... Once again, my day didn't turn out exactly as planned, but as they say... A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day and then you plug in the place... It could be work... It could be cutting the grass... Etc..

    OK... I heard a great song on the radio this morning on my way to work... And I said to myself... Chuck, now that's a great song to start a day with, that everyone should hear each day! It's a song from the 60's (of course!), by the Rascals, called... It's a Beautiful Morning... Here's the first verse, and if you know the song, I'm sure you'll want to sing along, but if not... Look it up, I'm sure, you'll agree that it's a great way to start a day!

    ...
  • Time To Remove Stimulus?

    In This Issue..

    * Chinese stocks rise 5%!
    * Risk Assets follow!
    * OECD forecasts faster global growth...
    * Gold & Silver kicking sand again!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Let's hope it remains a Tub Thumpin' Thursday later today, as I head downtown to watch my beloved Cardinals play a day game! For those of you who are baseball fans, you know what I mean when I carry on about how baseball should only be played during the day!

    OK... Before I get to the currencies, economies and the dolts in the world, I wanted to briefly talk about the SEC, who made an announcement yesterday that they had done an investigation of the Madoff audits, and did not find any fraud... Just mistakes... Really? Mistakes? That's what they call them? Even Bernie Madoff himself says that he was "astonished" that the SEC failed to shut him down after interviewing him in 2006!

    ...
  • Magical Currency Tours!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies get whacked by Geithner!
    * Big Ben wants the budget deficit cut!
    * BOE and ECB meetings today...
    * I told you this was going to get ugly...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes... Tub Thumpin' because I said so! Yesterday was absolutely a 10 on the crazy meter, and We the People, just continue to sit and take whatever the Government and media tell us is 'best for us in these uncommon times'... I've got some interesting words on this later in the letter... It's time for me to get on my soap box once again, so... At least I've prepared you! But first... Some currency news!

    Well... Yesterday, I left you with the thought that the currencies were selling off, after the Asian Central Banks all made statements regarding their support of the dollar as the world's reserve currency... Here are some further thoughts on that......
  • Dollar Shows Additional Strength...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro at one-month low... * Trichet talks rate cuts... * Riksbank & Bank of Canada this week... * The Mogambo on a Monday!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today is a special day, in that it is the Big Boss Frank Trotter's birthday! Happy Birthday Boss! Actually Frank is more of a very good, long time friend, mentor, and then boss. We've worked together for a very long time... I tell people at shows that Frank and I do together, that we've been working together for so long... The Dead Sea wasn't even sick when we began working together! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... A bad day a the office for the euro and other currencies on Friday, and then last night in the overnight markets... European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, once again deep-sixed the euro with talk of further rate cuts. He did attempt to water down the message by saying that "any rate cuts would be measured 25 BPS cuts" Memo to Trichet... It doesn't matter what the size of the debasing is, as long as you are going to debase your currency, the markets will make you pay for it!...
  • The Euro Gets Bogged Down...

    In This Issue..

    * A split among ECB ministers...
    * Trichet walks a fine line...
    * China and gold and copper...
    * Canada's economy has a pulse...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday as well, as all our prayers were answered once again, and my scans were clean! YAHOO! They did see something in my lung... It's called pneumonia! I knew this "thing" I had was more potent than anything I had ever had before... So... The proper medicine was dispatched, and hopefully in about 4 days I'll have this whipped! I've got the whole weekend to rest, and drink plenty of fluids! Now if I wasn't sick, that last sentence would take on a whole new meaning, if you get my drift!

    OK... Now that we have that housecleaning out of the way, it's time to go to work! Well, the currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, only to see the euro lose ground in the European session, this morning, as ECB President Trichet, deep sixed the currency this time!...
  • Gold As An Inflation Fighter!

    * BOE to cut rates today... * ECB will wait to cut for now... * Black clouds forming for India? * German factory Orders plunge! ** Gold As An Inflation Fighter! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Day One at the Orlando World Money Show (WMS) went well. My room for the presentation was packed! It was standing room only, and the good part was the fact that there were only about 30 Pfennig readers in the crowd. I say that not because I have something against Pfennig readers, oh Lord, they are dear readers! The reason I say that is I like to know how many of the non-readers I can convert to Pfennig readers!...
  • Chuck finally heads back home...

    * Chuck's thoughts... * US housing still a drag... * Rate cuts push currencies lower... * Yen rallies and is joined by some odd partners... ** Chuck finally heads back home.. Good day...Another big move up by the dollar and the Japanese yen last night. Really just another repeat of what we have been seeing each day of this week, dollar down, gold down, and oil down. And with the stock market falling dramatically yesterday, all of us on the desk were searching for something that was actually up yesterday. Our bond trader, Don Reis let me know that muni bonds rallied dramatically, along with US treasuries. So I guess investors are just continuing to park funds into the US fixed income markets. Chuck is headed back home this afternoon, after spending the past two weeks traveling the country with FX University. I'm sure he will be happy to get to sleep in his own bed again tonight, and will catch up on his rest tomorrow. He sent me the following note to share with readers....
  • Losses Keep Piling On!

    * Range bound currencies... * Stocks rebound... * So, you think Oil is expensive? * Gold prices back off... ** Losses Keep Piling On! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm running late today, was up most of the night with stomach problems, and overslept this morning. This is my last day on my 4-weeks treatment, so maybe by this time next week, I'll be able to feel normal again. But, it's a Friday! And... I'll be gone the next 3-weeks! First to Vancouver, where I'll still write the Pfennig each day, but then on vacation, and on to San Francisco... I'll be back in the saddle on August 11th... Well... We had a range bound day in the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief at JP Morgan's 2nd QTR earnings... JP Morgan beat the estimates, but the thing I don't get is why there was dancing in the streets when those earnings were 53% below those a year ago. So, good for them for beating the estimates, but 53% below last year, I would certainly think it would have raised a few eyebrows... In fact, JP Morgan head man, Jamie Dimon said, "Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."...