Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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  • SGE Takes On Gold Fixing On March 20.

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar taking no prisoners.

    * But two currencies carve out gains today.

    * Euro in a free fall, like dollar in 2009

    * Swiss francs fall below parity! .

    ...
  • Look Who Wants To Compromise Now.

    In This Issue.

    * No data means no weak data.

    * So, dollar begins to recover, and momentum takes over.

    * Coeure throws a cat among the pigeons.

    * N.Z. inflation ticks higher.

    ...
  • Fed floods the markets with US$...

    * Bernanke gets help opening the spigot... * Euro and Pound rally... * Yen to continue to benefit from carry reversals...* Aussie $ rallies... ** Fed floods the markets with US$... Good day...and happy Columbus day! This is an official bank holiday here in the states, so all of the banks are closed, but the stock markets are open. We will have a half day here on the desk to try and catch up with all of the work which has been piling up the past few weeks. The phones are turned off, since it is an official bank holiday, but we will be checking messages and try to get back to everyone as quickly as possible. It is a very unusual holiday, as the banks are all closed with no funds transfers possible, but the stock markets are open. Currency desks are lightly staffed, so we will have to really work to get the trades done this morning. These strange holidays usually can lead to some real market volatility, and with today will probably be another rollercoaster. In an all out effort to ease the credit freeze, the Federal Reserve recruited help from the ECB, Bank of England, and the Swiss central bank to flood the market with US$. These central banks will auction unlimited dollar funds with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. This move is unprecedented, as all previous dollar swaps were capped at a maximum amount while these auctions will be for unlimited funds....
  • No News Is Good News for U.S. Economy / Dollar.

    In This Issue.

    * German ZEW is weak again.

    * Swedish Unemployment drops to 8%

    * Canada prints fiscal budget today.

    * RBA's minutes are dovish, and so is Stevens .

    ...
  • High Yielders Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * Is it Game On for Carry Trades again?
    * A Trade-Free Zone for Southeast Asia!
    * 10-year yield rise will shut down the mortgage rally...
    * A min-rally for the euro this morning...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm already draggin' the line today on the 2nd day back from vacation! UGH! The High Yielders are back to work this week, as the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Brazil are attempting a come-back VS the dollar. This and more, as we head into the last Tuesday of 2009...

    Well... The last Monday of 2009, was uneventful with the currencies remaining in Tupperware ranges (tight that is!), and with little to show in the way of any measurable appreciation VS the dollar. There was no sign of the U.S. Corporations repatriating their profits yesterday as was rumored... Of course they still have today, tomorrow and Thursday to do so...

    ...
  • Passing Out The Dollars...

    * Risk Takers return... * Bank of America gets more cash! * 30-year mortgages below 5%! * Looking for direction... ** Passing Out The Dollars... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday so far, let's keep it going, eh? It is downright cold here. I'm reminded of that one looooonnnnngggg winter I spent in Des Moines, Iowa... This artic cold was the "norm" for that winter there... I didn't need any other reason to move back to St. Louis, once the spring thaw came around! Well... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, we have a change in sentiment going on... The Risk Takers are back in the driver's seat this morning, as the markets are feeling better about things given that the remaining TARP money has been given to the Obama campers to dole out, and Bank of America came away with an emergency lifeline from the Gov't that totals about $138 Billion... $20 Billion in cash, right here, right now, with the rest spread out between liquidity access and guarantees... And... The TARP money... Given the fact that the Obama people have been itching like they just rolled around in poison ivy, to get their hands on that money... You've got to wonder... Are these guys going to do their best to out do the previous administration when it comes to piling up debts?...
  • A Sense Of Optimism Sets In

    In This Issue.

    * Back to the negotiating table.

    * Oil trades in a tight range.

    * Chuck says a "new recession" is near..

    * Bill Murphy disses the investigation of Gold & Silver!

    ...
    Filed under: ,
  • The Dollar's Sword Swings In All Directions.

    In This Issue.

    * Even so-called safe havens get sold.

    * The new and improved GDP prints!

    * Canada prints Current Account Balance.

    * BCB hikes rates 50 basis points!.

    ...
    Filed under: , , ,
  • Eurozone 1st QTR GDP Beats U.S. and U.K.!

    In This Issue.

    * A$ gets a life from Hedge Funds & Strategists.

    * Euro leads currencies higher VS dollar.

    * Wheeler tries to deep six kiwi.

    * Chinese Retail Sales grow 10%!

    ...
    Filed under:
  • Gold Drops Through 200-day Moving Avg.

     

    <p>In This Issue.</p>

    <p>* Euro has no legs for sustained rally.</p>

    <p>* Mental Giants &amp; Gold.</p>

    <p>* Ted Butler today!</p>

    <p>* Data Cupboard-a-looza! </p>

    <p>And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!</p>

     

    ...
    Filed under: , ,
  • Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event?

    * A potential CDS debacle... * Currencies rally back... * Brazilian real history... * Saber rattling or geopolitical pressure? ** Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event? Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Right out of the starters blocks this morning, I have to apologize for the tardiness of the Pfennig yesterday... We were experiencing some technical difficulties... In fact, if you sent me an email, I didn't get it yesterday! Things look better this morning, so, maybe we're back on track! I know it's no one's fault when this stuff happens, but it sure doesn't make me feel good about getting up at X:XX AM (I won't say because you will think I'm crazy!) to come in and write the Pfennig, only to see it not go out until late in the day! Well... The stock market here in the U.S. sure liked the news about Fannie and Freddie! I guess, they, just like the dollar bulls, didn't get the memo that this will put billions of dollars of tax burden on taxpayers, and most likely is going to cause a major disruption in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that are on the books... Oh, well, we have to learn to deal with mental giants all our lives, this is just another case of that!...
  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......
  • Waiting For Downgrades.

    In This Issue.

    * Euro breaks range to the downside.

    * Moodys warns the Eurozone.

    * Comparing the U.S. & Eurozone debts.

    * The Treasury Bubble.

    ...
  • Weekly jobs data is positive, pushing the dollar lower...

    In This Issue.

    * Weekly jobs data is positive...

    * China is buying less US debt...

    * High yielders rally...

    * Indian rupee rebounds...

    ...
  • Chairman Bernanke says the Fed will be 'flexible' with bond purchases...

    In This Issue.

    * Bernanke says the Fed will be 'flexible'...

    * Markets realize the size of Cyprus...

    * Kiwi posts the biggest gains...

    * Data today may show US housing recovery continues...

    ...

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