May 2008 - Forecasts & Trends

Now that Obama appears to have a lock on being the Democratic candidate for president, we now shift our focus to John McCain. We all know that McCain is no conservative - not by a long shot. However, the real question is how the Republican "base" will vote, if they vote at all. For years, this base has been made up of white, married Christians, but there are indications that the Republican base may be changing. If so, the 2008 election may offer us a glimpse into the future of Republican politics. This week, I will reprint a very interesting article by Dr. Alan Abramowitz that discusses the shrinking Republican base. After that, I'll offer my own analysis of the situation....

The latest stronger than expected GDP reports shows the economy is not in a recession, despite what the media and Hillary and Obama would have you believe. I will discuss last week's GDP report in detail below. We will also discuss why legendary Wall Street maven Peter Bernstein believes the stock markets may remain in a broad sideways pattern for several more years - that is not good news. But just in case Bernstein may be right, I revisit our old friends and professional money managers Potomac Fund Management and Niemann Capital Management and slice-and-dice their past performance as compared to the major market indexes. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised! Lastly, don't miss my "POLITICAL EXTRA" at the end....