March 2014 - Forecasts & Trends

Forecasts & Trends is much more than just investment blog posts. You need to know the "big picture;" you need to have a "world view," especially in the post-911 world; and you need more information than ever before to be successful in meeting your financial goals. Gary intends to help you do just that.

Forecasts & Trends

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Looming Retirement Crisis – Boomers In Big Trouble!

    Let’s face it, we all know this country is facing a retirement crisis. The first of the Baby Boomers turned 65 and started retiring in 2011. The number of Boomers retiring each year will rise rapidly over the next decade or more. Before the end of this decade, Boomers will be turning age 65 at the rate of 8,000 per day.

    This massive retirement of Baby Boomers will stretch our health care and health delivery systems to the max and beyond. Our public safety net – entitlements – has long been poorly managed, ill-thought-out and threadbare. Imagine what will happen as tens of millions of Boomers retire.

    Yet the worst part of all is that so few people or families have saved anywhere near enough for retirement. According to a survey conducted earlier this year, 60% of workers have saved less than $25,000 for their retirement. And 36% have saved less than $1,000. This is appalling!

    Another new study found that 43% of Baby Boomers are at risk of running out of money in retirement. And this number is almost certainly understated because, as I will discuss below, many Boomers are untruthful about their assets when responding to retirement surveys. The point is, most Boomers are far, far behind in saving for their retirement.

    Given the magnitude of the coming retirement crisis, it will be a continuing theme I will be writing about periodically in the months and years ahead. I hope to present you with some ideas for saving more for retirement and, of course, making more on your investments.

    In that regard, I will be unveiling a new investment strategy that has me more excited than I’ve been in years! The risk/reward profile of this strategy is very impressive. We call it “ALPHA ADVANTAGE.” Trust me, you’re going to like what you see. I’ll talk a little more about it at the end of today’s E-Letter, but the details, including the performance, etc., will be unveiled in a special E-Mail to all clients and readers tomorrow. You don’t want to miss it!

    ...
  • Understanding The "Millennial Generation"

    As the father of two adult children who were born in the early 1990s, I have a particularly keen interest in the “Millennial Generation” – those 80 million or so people born in the US between 1980 and 2002, the largest generation ever – and who will be running the country before too long.

    America is in the throes of a huge demographic shift, and a major factor in this sea-change is the Millennial Generation, which is forging its own distinct path toward the future and will precipitate many social changes in the years to come. As a result, we all need to understand them better.

    Since most of my clients and readers are Baby Boomers, many of you also have adult children who are Millennials, and I thought it might be insightful to take a closer look at this unique generation that is actually larger than the Boomer generation.

    I've gathered a lot of really interesting info and stats on Millennials, including the findings from a new Pew Research Center survey of this under-34 generation.

    ...
  • U.S. Household Net Worth Hits New Record High

    The Federal Reserve announced last Thursday that US household net worth reached a new record high by the end of last year – at $80.7 trillion. The Fed said the new record was made possible largely due to vaulting stock prices, increased home values and Americans paying off more of their debts.

    Much of the surge in net worth went to affluent families and older Americans. Both groups are less likely to spend their gains and more likely to save and build more net worth – which is not particularly good for the economy unless it translates into new jobs.

    Meanwhile, many Americans continue to pay down their debts, a trend referred to as “deleveraging.”  Total household debt fell from near $13 trillion in 2008 to just under $11 trillion in 2012. For better or worse, that trend seems to have reversed in 2013 as more Americans started to take on debt again. We’ll discuss the details as we go along today.

    We also take a look at why the economic recovery is still sluggish, some four years after it officially began. Specifically, we’ll compare the current recovery with the average of the last 10 economic recoveries to determine the size of our so-called “growth deficit.”

    ...
  • The US Economy - Back To The Slow Lane Again

    Late last year, President Obama predicted that 2014 would see“breakout growth” in the US economy. His optimism was not completely unwarranted since the economy grew by a healthy 4.1% (annual rate) in the 3Q of last year, driven largely by an unexpected surge in inventory rebuilding. Then in late January, the Commerce Department reported that the economy grew by a better than expected 3.2% in the 4Q.

    A 4.1% jump in GDP in the 3Q followed by an above-trend 3.2% in the 4Q gave some forecasters, including President Obama, reason to predict that our anemic economy might finally be out of the doldrums. That was until last Friday’s second estimate of 4Q GDP, which was revised significantly lower to only 2.4%. That’s our lead topic for today, along with a look at some other recent economic reports that raise cause for concern.

    Finally, we will look at some professional analysis of President Obama’s plans to significantly downsize our military in the next few years. If Obama and defense secretary Chuck Hagel get their way, the Army will be reduced to its lowest level in 75 years. Hopefully, Congress will stand up for our military, but in any event, you need to know what this president wants to do. Be sure to read the latest military intelligence analysis from LIGNET which appears later on.

    ...