April 2014 - Forecasts & Trends

Forecasts & Trends is much more than just investment blog posts. You need to know the "big picture;" you need to have a "world view," especially in the post-911 world; and you need more information than ever before to be successful in meeting your financial goals. Gary intends to help you do just that.

Forecasts & Trends

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  • Dependence On Government Has Become Epidemic

    Did you know that the number of Americans getting benefits from the federal government each month greatly exceeds the number of full-time workers in the economy by a longshot? Sadly, it’s true. Based on the latest Census Bureau data  there were apprx. 148 million non-veteran Americans who are on some kind of monthly means-tested government benefits programs, by far the highest number ever, versus only 103 million full-time workers in 2012.

    Thus, the number of people that are taking money out of the system is far greater than the number of people working full-time who are putting money (taxes) into the system. Even worse, nearly 70% of all of the money that the federal government spends each year goes toward entitlement and welfare programs.

    America’s welfare empire encompasses more than 200 federal and state programs. We have become a nation that is hopelessly addicted to government benefits. This is why the only realistic way to balance our federal budget and reduce our massive national debt is to address and reform our entitlement and welfare programs.  That's what we'll talk about today.

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  • The Real Obamacare Nightmare is Just Beginning

    Last Thursday, the Obama administration said that a total of eight million Americans had signed up for Obamacare. In a hastily called press event, President Obama spiked the football, took a victory lap around the White House and declared the healthcare law a smashing success – although they still haven’t told us how many enrollees have actually paid a premium.

    In any event, the millions of Americans who have purchased health insurance on the government exchanges are in for another round of shocks as they begin to try to actually use their new healthcare insurance. New nightmares are being reported almost daily and we’re only getting started.

    The problems that will create the next Obamacare headlines will come in three main areas: 1) lack of access to doctors, 2) failures of the system to verify coverage and pay claims, and 3) the incredibly high deductibles and copays on the exchange insurance policies. I have reprinted an excellent article on this growing nightmare below.

    Yet before we go there, let’s take a look at a few recent economic reports that are actually encouraging. Also, our webinar last Wednesday on the HWM Alpha Advantage investment opportunity was one of the most highly attended web events we have ever done. The presentation was excellent and the questions from attendees were spot on. To view the webinar, CLICK HERE.

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  • Uncle Sam Seizes Children’s Tax Refunds To Pay Parents’ Debts

    Today, millions of Americans will file their 2013 income tax returns, and many are expecting to receive a tax refund from the IRS in a few weeks. Many income tax filers expecting a refund already have plans for how that refund check will be spent. But what you may not know is that the government can and does seize tax refunds from the children of parents who are deemed to owe the government money.

    The government is now going through old records to see if it overpaid Social Security benefits to people in the past. If it thinks it did, it can now seize the IRS tax refund checks of the children of those people it thinks it overpaid. Uncle Sam can seize your refund without your knowledge or consent, even without proof or exact details. It has been doing this for the last three years, confiscating hundreds of thousands of Americans’ tax refunds. It has already confiscated $1.9 billion in tax refunds this year alone.

    Worst of all, much of this supposed debt is over 10 years old. The Social Security Administration says it has identified over 400,000 children of deceased parents in an effort to collect billions in overpayments of benefits in years past, including $714 million that is over 10 years old. The SSA says it will start proceedings against all of those people by this summer.

    This is critical information that all Americans should know! Feel free to forward today’s E-Letter to anyone who can benefit from this knowledge.

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  • How High-Frequency Trading Benefits Most Investors

    A controversial new book came out in late March that lambastes so-called “high-frequency trading” on the major stock exchanges and claims that such computerized trading robs retail investors of good executions and profits on their stock orders. The book, “Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt,” was written by former bond salesman turned author, Michael Lewis, who appeared on CBS’ 60 Minutes on March 30. Since then, his book has stirred up quite the controversy among stock market investors.

    Mr. Lewis has joined other critics who say that the booming high-frequency trading field, in which computers buy and sell stocks at lightning speed to take advantage of minute changes in prices, has essentially rigged the market against small investors. Lewis and other critics charge that high-frequency traders are essentially “front-running” investors’ orders – a practice that is otherwise illegal.

    Today, I will make the counter-argument that high-frequency trading is actually good for retail investors in that it greatly increases trading volume, narrows “bid-ask” spreads and enhances trade execution for most of us. I’ll cite a recent example wherein the Toronto Stock Exchange restricted high-frequency trading and overall market volume plunged by 30%, thus resulting in worse trade executions for most individual investors.

    As a result of the latest high-frequency trading controversy, these groups are being investigated by the FBI, the SEC, the New York Attorney General and of late, the Justice Department, and I’m all for that. There probably are some abuses that need to be eliminated. Yet I hope the regulators will not make the assumption that all high-frequency trading is bad for retail investors, as Mr. Lewis concludes.

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  • Consumer Confidence Up, But Concerns Remain

    The Conference Board reported last week that its Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 82.3 in March (up from 78.3), the highest reading since January 2008. But the two underlying components of the Index provided two different perspectives, as we will discuss today.

    Basically, consumers as a group are feeling better and more confident about the economy and their present situation.  However, when asked how they feel about their financial situation six months from now, most consumers are much less confident. About as many expect their situation to get worse as those who expect it to get better. That’s not good.

    But before we get to that topic, let’s take a look at last week’s third and final estimate of 4Q GDP which showed a modest increase (2.6%) over the second estimate in February. We now know that the economy stalled a bit in the 4Q of last year, following growth of 4.1% in the 3Q. And it likely slowed even more in the 1Q of this year due to bad weather.

    Following that discussion, I want to introduce you to a new breakthrough economic statistic that we’ll be hearing about for the first time later this month.  It’s called “Gross Output” (GO) and is a measure of total sales volume at all stages of production. GO is much larger than GDP, the standard yardstick for measuring final goods and services produced in the economy. I’ll explain why GO is being introduced and why we investors need to pay attention to it.

    Finally, President Obama’s disapproval rating has soared to a new all-time high, and his approval rating is falling once again. Americans continue to blame him for Obamacare, and 57% dislike his handling of the Ukraine situation.

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