June 2014 - Forecasts & Trends

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    • Economy: 1Q Looks Even Worse, But 2Q Looks Good

      The government’s final estimate of 1Q GDP comes out tomorrow, and it is expected to be revised from -1.0% to near -2.0%. Based on recently released data, it is clear that healthcare spending by consumers was considerably lower in the 1Q than first estimated. We’ll look at some of the reasons why.

      From there, we’ll look at some disturbing economic data which show that businesses in the US are shutting down faster than new ones are starting up. This has never happened before in America according to a new Brookings Institute study.

      Next, we’ll review some recent developments which suggest economic growth has accelerated sharply in the 2Q. Most forecasts for 2Q GDP are at 3% or better. Our first look at 2Q GDP will come in late July.

      Finally, there is news that the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency knew back in January that a flood of undocumented children – specifically 65,000 – were going to pour across the Texas border this year. They requested help on a government website.  This has the potential to be really BIG!

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    • Unimaginable Human Tragedy On The Texas Border

      Thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding across the border into Texas and other border states every day, but two things distinguish this wave from earlier illegal immigration waves. First, most of these people are coming from Central America, not Mexico. And second, large numbers of these illegal migrants are unaccompanied children. US authorities estimate that between 60,000 and 80,000 children will seek safe haven in the US this year, up from about 6,000 in 2011.

      The explosive increase in the number of illegal migrants coming over the border over the past several months – especially the number of children traveling without their parents – has overwhelmed the Border Patrol’s detention centers in South Texas. During the past eight months, Customs and Border Protection has detained 47,000 unaccompanied minors, most of them in the Rio Grande Valley area of South Texas.

      The question is, how and why are these hoards of young people coming here now. The working theory is that they are fleeing violence in their home countries. That may be true in some cases, but in most instances, they are coming because they believe they will get amnesty as a result of President Obama's lax immigration policies.

      This is a truly horrific story that all Americans need to know about. Feel free to share today's E-Letter with others.

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    • The US Economy – The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

      As is true more often than not, there are mixed signals in the economy. There are indeed some “green shoots” emerging that suggest the economy is finally gaining some momentum. Yet there are also continued troubling signs that, while not warning of an impending recession, suggest we could be stuck in a structural period of continued below-trend growth.

      Today, we’ll look into the latest economic indicators – good, bad and in between – and see if we can make any sense of where we are. My view is that the economy is most likely to remain in sub-par growth (i.e. – below 3%) for at least the rest of this year and maybe longer. Yet as we’ll see below, some others feel that the economy is nearing “breakout velocity.” We’ll see, but I am not so optimistic. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

      A new report finds that President Obama’s economy is the worst in over 80 years. You can read this story at the first link in SPECIAL ARTICLES below.

      Let’s start with the latest good economic news.

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    • Why Food Prices Are Soaring, Likely To Continue

      Do you know that the US state which produces the most vegetables by far is going through the worst drought it has ever experienced? Do you know that the size of the total US cattle herd is now the smallest that it has been since 1951, even though our population has doubled since then? Do you know why bacon prices are up 55% or more in the last few years?

      As you are no doubt aware, food prices are soaring higher and higher. As we’ll see below, one widely-followed food price index is up almost 21% in less than a year. The question is, why have food prices risen so sharply in the last few years? That’s what we’ll talk about today.

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