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  • Is "Brexit" The Beginning of the End For European Union?

    Just about everywhere I go lately people ask me what I think about “BREXIT” and the ramifications it will have for Great Britain, Europe and even the United States. My standard answer since the vote on June 23 is that I don’t think about it much.

    The reason is that, other than the vote itself wherein the “Leave” crowd won 52%-48% over the “Remain” crowd, nothing else has happened to make Brexit the law of the land, and may not happen for months to come. British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the day after the vote didn’t go his way, but offered to stay on until October if need be to find a replacement.

    In order to officially initiate its withdrawal from the European Union, Britain must invoke “Article 50” of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty with the EU, and it now looks likely that such a notification won’t happen until after the new Prime Minister is in office. And then withdrawal from the EU is a two-year process after that.

    I last wrote about Brexit on Thursday, June 23, the day of the referendum, in my Blog. At that time, I noted that some of the final polls showed a slim lead for the Leave crowd. I also noted that the Leave crowd in Britain is part of a “global anti-establishment movement” that is growing around the world – which has brought us the likes of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

    While the Brexit outcome roiled the global equity markets for the first couple of days following the vote, some of those losses have been recovered. Frankly, I expect Brexit will fall out of the headlines soon, if it hasn’t already, and the media attention for the rest of this month will be on the GOP convention on July 18-21 and the Democratic convention on July 25-28.

    Nevertheless, I will give you my thoughts and those from others I read on Brexit as we go along today. Just keep in mind that we don’t have any idea when Brexit will happen, under what terms it will happen or even if it will happen at all.

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  • "BREXIT" - Should They Stay Or Should They Go?

    The citizens of Great Britain will make a monumental decision that will be felt worldwide if they vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week on June 23. If the Brits vote for “Brexit” it could eventually lead to the end of the EU and the euro. It could potentially lead to serious turmoil in the world financial markets in the days and weeks following the referendum if the vote is to leave.

    Yet if Brexit passes, it does not mean that Britain will leave the EU immediately. We are told that there will be a transitionary period which could last a year or longer. Maybe this will limit the potential turmoil in the markets, but that’s far from certain. In any event, I think most Americans should understand the long-range implications of next week’s key vote.

    I have read a great deal about what may happen if the Brits vote to leave the EU. It is clear that Brexit is part of a groundswell of dislike around the developed world for all things “Establishment.”  This growing trend also explains in part why characters like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders did so well in the election primaries.

    To help us understand these trends and the important implications, I have chosen to reprint a very good analysis on this subject today. It appeared in TIME Magazine online last Friday and is written by Frank Luntz.  Mr. Luntz is a well-known political analyst, professional pollster, author and contributor to CBS News and the Fox News Channel among others.

    You should read it. I will be writing more on this key topic in the weeks and months ahead.

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  • Greece Poised to Default & Exit the Euro

    Greece is coming dangerously close to defaulting on its debt, especially if the next round of bailout loans doesn't happen. Those loans are predicated on Greece continuing its austerity programs to balance its budget. Greece will hold its next national elections on June 17, and the party that is expected to win vows to roll back the austerity measures mandated by the EU and the ECB. At the least, it looks like we're headed for fireworks just ahead.

    The burning question: Is there any way that Greece can default on its debt and withdraw from the euro without causing a global financial crisis. Some believe there is. Today, I present such a plan that was suggested by Nouriel Roubini last Friday. But I will also tell you that I don't believe that the EU, especially Germany, will go along with Roubini's plan. Germany's Chancellor Andrea Merkel reportedly made that clear to President Obama last Saturday in a private meeting following the G-8 summit in Chicago.

    No one knows what will happen with Greece just ahead, but a debt default and an exit from the EU and the euro are now quite likely later this year. This is even more of a threat if the Left Coalition in Greece wins the elections on June 17. Obviously, this is having a very negative effect of the stock markets, making it all the more important to have investment professionals on your team.

    On Thursday we are hosting our latest online WEBINAR featuring Yacktman Capital Group, the latest money manager to make it onto our recommended list. The Webinar will be this Thursday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Yacktman's founder, Brian Yacktman, will talk about his successful "value-investing" strategy and how it works. There will be time for questions from audience members. With the recent decline in the stock market, now may be an excellent time to consider putting some money with Yacktman Capital Group.

    You can attend the free Webinar on Thursday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern by CLICKING HERE. I hope you'll join us!

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