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Economic & Investment Outlook For 2009

As we kick off the New Year, let's review the latest dismal economic and financial data and the consensus views of what lies ahead in 2009 for the economy, the credit crisis and the markets. As you might expect, most of my trusted sources believe that the recession will be with us for a while, but there is hope that the economy will begin to bottom out sometime late this year - aided by more huge government bailouts that President-elect Obama has in store for us....

Published 01-06-2009 4:10 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, GDP, Economic Forecast, Barack Obama, Politics, Bailout, Economy, Scotia Partners, Halbert Wealth Management, Financial Crisis, Deflation, Government, Bank Credit Analyst

Credit Crisis: Do Bush & Paulson Have A Clue?

The latest about-face by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson - abandoning the plan to buy up troubled assets from banks, and shifting to more large equity infusions - has lawmakers and investors wondering if President Bush and the Treasury have any clue as to how to solve the financial crisis. But before we get into that, we look at the latest analysis from Stratfor.com on the financial crisis we are in. And finally, we take a look at the current state of the economy and the recession. News continues to worsen, especially forecasts for 4Q GDP, which many economists and analysts now believe could be negative 4-5%. All of this continues to weigh on the stock markets, which as this is written, are threatening to make new lows....

Published 11-18-2008 3:19 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, George Bush, Credit Crisis, Subprime, Recession, Consumer Confidence, Stratfor, Economy, Financial Crisis, Henry Paulson

"Buy-And-Hold" Bites The Dust - Now What?

While there has always been debate about the value of buy-and-hold investing, the last decade or so has really dealt a blow to this passive investment strategy. I have always said that the long-term statistics (some spanning 75 years or more) used by passive investing proponents to "prove" their point are totally unrealistic in relation to the actual time horizons of many investors. Over shorter periods of time, a buy-and-hold portfolio can suffer major losses, possibly right at the time investors need their money the most. Now is just such a time. After suffering through two major bear markets since 2000, individual investors and even many professionals are seeking out the kind of actively managed investment alternatives that I have recommended since 1995. This week, I'll revisit the perils of index investing, as well as provide a brief economic overview....

Published 11-11-2008 2:54 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, Credit Crisis, Subprime, Baby Boomers, Economic Forecast, Investing Strategies, Risk Management, AdvisorLink, Halbert Wealth Management, Financial Crisis, Buy and Hold, Index investing, Niemann Equity Plus

On The Economy And Active Management

Recent economic reports continue to signal an economy that is spiraling into a recession. How deep and how long that recession may be is anyone's guess, but I think it's beyond question that a major slowdown is in our future. Of course, this also means sluggish corporate earnings, a depressed stock market and a lower demand for goods and services. With trillions of dollars of wealth now devoured by the subprime monster, the natural question is how to invest in an uncertain market. Fortunately, we have the answer for you as I will explain this week after reviewing some economic data. This is not an E-Letter that you'll want to miss....

Published 10-21-2008 5:07 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, Money Management, GDP, Credit Crisis, Economic Forecast, Recession, AdvisorLink, Halbert Wealth Management, Financial Crisis

SPECIAL ISSUE: Financial Crisis For Beginners

People are constantly asking me how we got into this financial crisis and how it became so very messy, thus requiring massive government bailouts around the world. This SPECIAL ISSUE of Forecasts & Trends E-Letter features a very good analysis of the current financial crisis - in layman's terms - from the good folks at BaselineScenario.com. Hopefully, it will help you to better understand how the housing/mortgage crisis led us to where we are today. If it helps, feel free to share with others as you see fit....

Published 10-15-2008 3:48 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, Housing Crisis, Credit Crisis, Subprime, Financial Crisis, BaselineScenario.com, Collateralized Debt Obligations, Credit Default Swaps

What To Do About The Global Financial Crisis

This week, we ponder whether the giant $700 billion bailout plan is large enough. There are some smart people who believe it is not enough, as you will read below. There are also many who argue that the government needs to inject capital directly into the largest banks to get them lending again. This morning, President Bush announced just such a plan to inject up to $250 billion in US banks in return for stock in their companies. I will discuss this latest bank rescue plan as we go along, as well as the progress on the larger bailout plan. Finally, I will give you thoughts on what you should be doing in the stock market in light of the latest historical plunge....

Published 10-14-2008 12:59 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, Liquidity, Credit Crisis, Geopolitics, Barack Obama, Bailout, John McCain, Financial Crisis, Recapitalization, Globalization, BaselineScenario.com

Might Uncle Sam Make Money On The Bailout?

The entire country is in a tizzy over the massive government bailout plan. The credit markets have seized up even further, risking a real credit crisis or worse. Banks are dropping like flies. Yet the $700+ billion bailout was voted down yesterday in the House of Representatives. But it is far from dead. This week, I will summarize the latest bailout plan, both the good and the bad and the risks. Actually, there are some smart people who believe the government will make money on the bailout plan, maybe a lot of money. I'll explain that as well, although I don't necessarily agree. Hopefully, this week's discussion will be helpful. Let's jump in....

Published 09-30-2008 2:36 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Election Issues, Gary D. Halbert, The Fed, Credit Crisis, Subprime, Economic Forecast, Recession, U.S. Economy, Politics, Ben Bernanke, Depression, Bailout, Financial Crisis, Henry Paulson

Uncle Sam's $700+ Billion Toxic Securities Fund

The credit crisis has led to gridlock in the financial markets, and the stock markets have dropped like a stone. On Saturday, the Treasury Dept. and the Federal Reserve requested a massive $700+ billion bailout package that would allow the government to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from banks and financial firms that are in trouble. Congress is reluctant to go along, but I expect they will provided they also get some money to help struggling homeowners and more oversight than the government offered initially. This week, we take a look at the latest enormous bailout plan and the latest government guarantee of money market funds. I also tell you why I believe we are now headed for a recession, and why I believe this huge financial mess will likely make Barack Obama our next president....

Published 09-23-2008 3:03 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: Election Issues, Gary D. Halbert, Subprime, Economic Forecast, Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Oil, Bailout, John McCain, Economy, Financial Crisis, Henry Paulson

Category 2 Hits Texas, Cat 4 Hits Wall Street

While Hurricane Ike ravaged the Gulf Coast over the weekend, there was a major financial storm on Wall Street on Saturday and Sunday. Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest US investment bank, announced on Sunday that it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Shortly thereafter Bank of America announced that it was gobbling up brokerage giant Merrill Lynch for a mere $45-50 billion in stock. If that weren't enough, insurance giant AIG is in serious financial condition and is requesting $70-75 billion in new loans to stay afloat. These latest developments are the next chapter in the subprime mortgage/credit crisis, and they took a heavy toll on the stock markets yesterday. I will sort it all out for you in the pages that follow....

Published 09-16-2008 4:57 PM by Gary D. Halbert

Filed under: The Fed, Subprime, AdvisorLink, Economy, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Financial Crisis, ISDA, AIG

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