The citizens of Great Britain will make a monumental decision that will be felt worldwide if they vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week on June 23. If the Brits vote for “Brexit” it could eventually lead to the end of the EU and the euro. It could potentially lead to serious turmoil in the world financial markets in the days and weeks following the referendum if the vote is to leave.
Yet if Brexit passes, it does not mean that Britain will leave the EU immediately. We are told that there will be a transitionary period which could last a year or longer. Maybe this will limit the potential turmoil in the markets, but that’s far from certain. In any event, I think most Americans should understand the long-range implications of next week’s key vote.
I have read a great deal about what may happen if the Brits vote to leave the EU. It is clear that Brexit is part of a groundswell of dislike around the developed world for all things “Establishment.” This growing trend also explains in part why characters like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders did so well in the election primaries.
To help us understand these trends and the important implications, I have chosen to reprint a very good analysis on this subject today. It appeared in TIME Magazine online last Friday and is written by Frank Luntz. Mr. Luntz is a well-known political analyst, professional pollster, author and contributor to CBS News and the Fox News Channel among others.
You should read it. I will be writing more on this key topic in the weeks and months ahead.