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Have You Seen This?

Have You Seen This?

  • The Stock Market Conundrum

    The market goes up, the market goes down. Will we have a sustained rally, or is this just a 'sucker rally' that will soon end with a significant downturn? As we look to the experts to help answer these questions, we find that their predictions are all over the map. Many quantitative models are saying the market is severely overbought, while those relying on fundamental analysis say the market is fairly priced. It seems that the more 'expert' opinions we get, the more confusing it becomes for investors to know what to do.

    The biggest question for investors who are currently on the sidelines is whether they have missed the majority of the bull market rally, or if it still has a way to go. This is especially true in the case of Baby Boomers, whose retirement nest eggs have been hit by two major bear markets within a decade. They need the growth that the market has the potential to produce, but can't stand another major down market, which may also be in the cards.

    This week, I'm going to discuss the various viewpoints both for and against a sustained market rally. As you will see, both sides are supported by facts, figures and historical precedent. They can't both be right, but both could be wrong should the market be headed into a broad trading range.

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  • Coming From Behind - Investment Lessons From Sports

    As long-time clients and readers will recall, I have been actively involved in coaching my kids in their various sports for over a decade, and still am. As I have written in the past, the lessons I have learned from being a sports coach all these years have served me very well in my career in the investment business. In many ways, I feel I am my clients' investment coach. In sports, I have always stressed that you must have both a good offense and a good defense to win championships. The same is true for your investments. You can't just swing for the fences in your investments; you also must protect against huge losses (bear markets), as we have seen over the last year. This week, I will reflect on how sports analogies can make us all better and more successful investors....
  • On The Economy, Bonds & Bear Market Rallies

    Last Wednesday the government reported that 1Q GDP declined at an annual rate of 6.1%, thus confirming that we are still in a deep recession. While the GDP report was worse than the pre-report consensus, it was very much in line with what I predicted in my April 21 E-Letter. I continue to believe that we will be in this recession all year.

    Several recently released studies highlight the fact that long maturity Treasury bonds have outperformed stocks over the last 40+ years, and by a substantial margin over the last 28 years. I will examine these reports as we go along. Does this mean you should put all of your money in bonds now? I'll tell you why I believe that would be the wrong move to make at this time.

    Finally, we get calls every day asking if the recent rally in the stock markets means that the bear market is over, or if this is just a bear market rally. While no one knows for sure, we will take a look at some past bear market rallies to keep things in perspective. I think you'll find this week's letter interesting....
  • Beware: Bear Market Brings Out Tall Tales!

    This week, I'm going to share my thoughts about a couple of the recent investment-related articles I have read. The first article documents the day in February when the stock markets hit the milestone of having fallen 50% from their October 2007 peaks. Of course, this means that index investors will now have to earn 100% or greater returns just to get their accounts back to break-even. I'll also note how market action since that article has now taken the major market indexes even deeper into the red. The market's action over the past eighteen months or so highlights my frequent advice to include investments that employ active money management strategies in your overall portfolio. While there are obviously no guarantees, the ability to move to cash or hedge long positions can potentially help to minimize losses, especially during bear markets. This brings us to the second article. Many large mutual fund and brokerage companies have a vested interest in seeing discredited buy-and-hold strategies continue. Thus, it was not a surprise when I learned of a study sponsored by a major mutual fund company that supposedly showed the superiority of buy-and-hold over the active strategy of market timing - even in this bear market! It was also no surprise that the study was based on flawed assumptions that skewed the results in favor of buy-and-hold. I was surprised, however, that the Investor's Business Daily publication reported on the flawed study as if it were legitimate advice. In the E-letter, I'll point out how the mutual fund study was fatally flawed, and hopefully show you how to avoid taking such articles and studies at face value, even when they are published by seemingly legitimate sources....
  • Retirement Focus - Year-End Retirement Sugarplums

    The stock market has been doing a bit better lately with both the Dow and S&P 500 Indexes well above their November lows. This, in turn, has resulted in some well-known financial "experts" saying that the market has hit the bottom and it's now time to invest. Other analysts, however, are not so optimistic and point to continued uncertainty as a reason that the market could still go lower. Nowhere is this debate more important than to 401(k) and IRA account holders with large cash balances and are agonizing about whether to jump back into the market, or remain on the sidelines. This week, Mike Posey provides a possible answer to this question, as well as offering a number of other year-end retirement planning ideas that may be helpful to you....
  • "Gifting" & Things To Be Thankful For This Holiday

    As we near the end of 2008, it is important that we take our eyes off of the gyrating stock market for a while and consider year-end tax planning opportunities. One of the best ways I have seen to minimize the effects of estate taxes is the "gift tax exclusion." In 2008, a couple can gift $12,000 each, for a total of $24,000, to a child, grandchild or anyone they want. This is a great way to remove assets from your estate, but can also be a good way to teach fiscal responsibility, even to adult children. This week, I'll discuss the gift tax exclusion and detail a way it can be used to pass along your investment philosophy to the younger generation. Plus, I'll take time during this Thanksgiving Week to let you in on some of the things I am thankful for, even during these tough economic times....
  • A Misguided Slam On Active Management

    It is not uncommon to have major Wall Street players criticize traditional market timing strategies in the financial media. However, such criticism is somewhat misguided in today's market, when many buy-and-hold investors are suffering major investment losses. That's why I was somewhat surprised to see David Dreman, a known contrarian, tag along with the buy-and-hold crowd in a recent Forbes article. In this week's E-Letter, I'm going to take on Mr. Dreman's recent comments about traditional market timing strategies. I'll also show you his recent performance as compared to that of Scotia Partners, one of our latest market timing managers. You can then decide for yourself which one has had the upper hand in the recent volatile market environment....
  • Retirement Focus - More Post-Retirement Investing

    This week, Mike Posey continues his Retirement Focus series on how to invest during retirement. In this installment, Mike covers the variable annuity option, which is gaining in popularity among retirees. I think this is a very important topic for any investor, especially in light of some of the questionable marketing tactics used to promote these contracts. You definitely need to read Mike's analysis before attending one of the "free lunch" seminars touting variable annuity investments. Mike also includes one of his "Retirement Tidbits," which discusses a retirement resource that I think you may find especially helpful....
  • A Shocking New Morningstar Study!

    Morningstar recently shocked the investment industry with a report showing that less than half of mutual fund managers invest their own money in the funds they manage. Since many investors naturally assume that their fund managers "eat their own cooking," it came as quite a shock to learn that most managers' interests were not aligned with those of their shareholders. This week, I'm going to discuss why an Investment Advisor's personal investment has always been a major requirement for me to recommend an investment program. Plus, I'll discuss other important information that you may not learn from an Investment Advisor unless you know to ask the right questions....
  • Investing During Retirement

    With so many new investment and insurance products aimed at the soon-to-retire Baby Boom Generation, it's sometimes difficult to know which might be best for your situation. This week, Mike Posey addresses those concerns by beginning a series of Retirement Focus E-Letters that will discuss how to invest during retirement. This area of investing is one that we have received a lot of questions about from our readers, so I know it will be well-received....
  • Retirement Focus - Pros & Cons of Annuity Payouts

    IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview Of Retirement Plan Distributions 2. Types Of Annuity Payouts 3. Advanced Annuity Payout Concepts 4. Retirement Tidbit - Minimum Distributions Introduction As I noted in my last Retirement Focus feature back on June 5 , one of...