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  • Was Your Stock Portfolio Up Over 40% in 2013?

    Editor's Note:  There is no need to read today’s E-Letter unless you are interested in an investment opportunity that delivered the following:

    A 2013 calendar-year gain of over 43%, net of all fees and expenses;
    An annualized return since inception that beat most equity benchmarks;
    Would have turned a $100,000 investment at its inception in September 1996
    into a nest egg of over $577,000 by the end of 2013;
    The flexibility to move to cash should we encounter a bear market or major downward correction; and
    The minimum investment is only $50,000.
    If you can say all of that about your portfolio, then you probably don’t need the opportunity I’ll be discussing today. Otherwise, please read on. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

    Last October, I wrote about how  Niemann Capital Management’s “Risk Managed Program” was outperforming the S&P 500 Index by a significant margin. This was no small feat, since the S&P had a year-to-date gain of almost 20% as of the end of September.

    Now fast forward to the end of 2013 when Risk Managed finished the year with a whopping 43.79% gain, net of fees – more than 11 percentage points higher than the S&P 500’s excellent gain of 32.39% (including dividends). This difference in performance is known as “alpha,” which is often defined as the added value that a portfolio manager brings over and above a given benchmark, in this case the S&P 500 Index.

    Today I want to revisit Niemann's Risk Managed Program and discuss how it managed to significantly outperform the S&P 500 in 2013 and for the last 17 years on an annualized basis. You don't find many professional money managers who can say that!
    If you have not looked at Niemann, I highly encourage you to consider their Risk Managed Program for part of your portfolio. If you read today's E-Letter, you'll understand why.

  • Is Your Stock Portfolio Up Over 30% This Year?

    This week’s Forecasts & Trends E-Letter beings with a simple question, but it’s one that can have a major effect on your financial well-being. Given that government intervention in the markets now seems to be built into our expectations, I’m going to recap one of our recommended money managers that has been able to navigate the QE3-induced market rally and is up over 30% year-to-date as of September 30.

    More importantly, the money manager I will talk about today - Niemann Capital Management - has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index since the company's inception in 1996, both on the upside and the downside.

    Yet return is only half of the equation. The other half is whether an investment strategy has the ability to manage risks by moving to cash when the market takes a downturn, which it eventually will. Niemann also covers both bases by offering a momentum-based strategy on the upside, and the ability to move to cash during downward corrections and bear markets.

    Best of all, Niemann’s not an amateur in this business.  Don Niemann and his staff have been successfully managing their Risk Managed Program for 17 years, so they’ve seen several different market cycles. I’m highlighting Niemann today because I think they are a viable alternative for investors who are in the market and getting nervous about a pullback, as well as investors on the sidelines who fear that the market may have risen too far too fast for them to participate.

  • Economic Recovery vs. Rising Unemployment

    This Thursday, all eyes will be on the 'advance' estimate of 3Q GDP, and most analysts expect it to be positive and confirm that the US economy emerged from the recession in the July-September quarter. Yet even if the GDP report is positive on Thursday, we all know that the unemployment rate (currently 9.8%) continues to rise and is likely to go up for at least several more months.

    If the government counted everyone who is unemployed, or is working part-time because they can't find a full-time job, the real US unemployment rate was 17% as of the end of September. So even if the recession 'officially' ended in the 3Q based on this Thursday's GDP report, this economy is far from out of the woods. And if the dollar continues to fall, even more dire consequences (ie - a double-dip recession) are likely to follow. It's a lot to cover in one letter, so let's get started.

  • On The Economy & This Sideways Stock Market

    The latest stronger than expected GDP reports shows the economy is not in a recession, despite what the media and Hillary and Obama would have you believe. I will discuss last week's GDP report in detail below. We will also discuss why legendary Wall Street maven Peter Bernstein believes the stock markets may remain in a broad sideways pattern for several more years - that is not good news. But just in case Bernstein may be right, I revisit our old friends and professional money managers Potomac Fund Management and Niemann Capital Management and slice-and-dice their past performance as compared to the major market indexes. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised! Lastly, don't miss my "POLITICAL EXTRA" at the end....