Browse by Tags

Forecasts & Trends

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • How The Media Blew The Election & What To Watch For Just Ahead

    As long-time clients and readers know, I have kept a fairly low political profile as we moved through this year’s election season, as opposed to previous years when I was an outspoken supporter for the conservative candidates.

    One reason is that, like many of you, I didn’t care much for either candidate. I did go on the record a few weeks ago saying that I did not want to see the Clintons return to the White House, which made me a reluctant Trump supporter. In light of Trump’s surprise thrashing of Hillary in the Electoral College, I will offer some personal thoughts on the election today.

    Following that, I have reprinted the very best analysis I have seen on how and why the election turned out as it did. This excellent article was written by Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal. Kim has become one of my favorite writers in recent years, so I trust you will enjoy her keen analysis on why the election went to Trump. (Hint: She argues that it was President Obama who is primarily responsible for Trump’s victory.)

    Next I’ll add some parting thoughts on how the media got this election so very wrong. I will also add some thoughts on what we should be watching for just ahead to help us get a read on what kind of president Donald Trump may be.

    ...
    Filed under: ,
  • President Romney, VP Biden - It Could Happen

    On this important Election Day, I wonder if my readers are fully aware of what would happen if the presidential election were to end up tonight in an Electoral College (EC) tie. While it’s a remote possibility, there is a scenario where the Obama/Romney battle could come down to a 269/269 tie. It takes a minimum of 270 EC votes to be declared the president.

    In the case of a tie, the US House of Representatives, under authority of the 12th Amendment, decides who is the winner. With the House under Republican control, there’s no question that they would award the victory to Governor Romney.

    But under the same authority, the Senate gets to pick the vice president. With the Senate controlled by the Democrats, it’s a no-brainer that they would pick Joe Biden. That’s how we could see a Romney-Biden administration. Wouldn’t that be crazy!? While this outcome is unlikely, it is not unprecedented, as I will discuss below on this Election Day.

    Next, did you hear that 500 retired Generals and Admirals from the US Armed Forces ran a full-page ad in the Washington Times yesterday endorsing Governor Romney? I have links to the ad and the story behind it at the end today.

    Before we get to all of that, we will take a look at some of the recent economic numbers. For the first time in a good while, there is some encouraging news out there.

    ...
  • What Really Happened in Benghazi on Sept. 11

    I’ve been taking a lot of flak from the Obama supporters in this audience over the past few weeks. Some are demanding that I stick to economic and investment issues and stop criticizing the president. Sorry liberals, but I have long maintained that who we elect to run the country has a big impact on the economy and therefore investment trends.

    The good news for those of you who are backing Obama (and giving me grief) is that the election will be over next Tuesday night, barring something unusual, and I will have to accept the outcome even if President Obama is re-elected. Fortunately, the polls have moved in favor of Governor Romney in recent weeks, and I hope to be relieved on Election Night.

    Today, I want to make sure that my clients and readers are clear about what happened in Benghazi, Libya on the night of September 11 when four brave Americans were murdered by al Qaeda militants. Ambassador Chris Stevens repeatedly requested additional support to protect our Embassy there, and his requests were denied – by someone.

    Unfortunately, the mainstream media is not reporting much on this story, with the exception of Fox News and conservative commentators like Limbaugh, Hannity, O’Reilly and a few others. The American people, and especially my readers, deserve to know the truth before the election! We will dig into that today.

    ...
  • Bond Investing - It’s the Short Side, Stupid

    As all of my readers know by now, I'm a political junkie. I love bringing parallels between politics and investments to your attention, since the two are very interrelated. Today, we're going to discuss how a cliche coined to help win an election can be useful to Treasury bond investors.

    There's no doubt that Treasury bonds are at historically high prices, making them quite risky for the future. However, there are ways to make money when bond prices go down, which is where I think bond investors need to be concentrating right now. In other words, when I ask myself where potential Treasury bond opportunity lies, the answer comes back: "It's the short side, stupid."

    Even so, bond-king Bill Gross found out that there was still some upside for Treasury bond prices when he exited the market in 2011 and missed out on some good gains. What's needed is an investment that can go both long or short, depending upon the market environment. Today, I'll introduce you to just such an investment - the Equity Alternative Program. Since its inception in 2007, Equity Alternative has produced an annualized gain of over 19%, net of fees. You'll definitely want to check this Advisor out in more detail.

    ...
  • Will The Bond Mania End Ugly?

    Since the stock market bottom in March 2009, the S&P 500 Index has almost doubled. That’s a gain of apprx. 100% in three years. Yet investors have been dumping stock mutual funds like they’re the plague over this same period. It is impossible to know where the millions of investors that have redeemed from stock funds over the last several years put all of their money, but it is clear that a lot of it went into bond mutual funds.

    Over the past several years, we have seen a stampede into bond funds, and especially US Treasury bonds funds. Investors around the world are seeking the perceived safety of US bonds. Many probably don't realize that bonds can be just as volatile as stocks, and sometimes more so. When interest rates do move higher, bond investors will experience losses - how severe we don't know.

    The Fed says it's committed to keeping short-term rates interest rates low through late 2014. Yet with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note now below 2%, it is hard to see rates moving much lower. If you are overweight in bonds, now may be a good time to take some profits and lighten up. We have a professionally managed bond program which can invest either long or short, in addition to the convertible bond program offered by Wellesley Investment Advisors.

    At the end of today's letter, I'll show you a brand new presidential election poll from Rasmussen that is very surprising, at least to me. Rasmussen did a poll with a three-man race - Obama, Romney and Ron Paul as an Independent - and guess who wins by a comfortable margin? You may be as surprised as I was.

    ...
  • On the Fed, Stocks, the Election & More on the 1%

    Today we visit several interesting topics. We begin with a look at the Fed’s latest Beige Book report that came out last week, which showed that the economy improved at least modestly in all 12 Fed Districts late last year. We also ponder the question of whether the Fed is ramping up to do another round of quantitative easing (QE3).

    Next, with everyone wondering if we’re facing another roller coaster ride in the stock market this year, I will bring you some interesting facts about what stocks have historically done in presidential election years.

    Finally, we received a great deal of response to last week’s E-Letter that focused on members of Congress and how they fare so much better than the rest of us financially speaking. Given the level of interest in this topic, I dug a little deeper over the last week to find some fascinating information on the so-called “Top 1%” of wealthiest Americans. You’re going to love this!

    ...