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  • European Debt Crisis Revisited - Implications For the US

    Today we take a fresh look at the European debt crisis which is worsening. Just over a month ago, EU leaders agreed on a second bailout loan for Greece to keep it from defaulting. That bailout loan had to be approved by all EU member nations, and several have refused to do so unless Greece can put up collateral. This has caused the bailout agreement to unravel and Germany's Chancellor Andrea Merkel is frantically trying to put it back together. If she fails, we could get another serious shock to the equity markets in the US.

    Meanwhile, the European Central Bank began buying huge chunks of government bonds from Italy and Spain to keep their credit markets functioning. Some argue that the ECB is not authorized to make such purchases but it is doing so anyway. It remains to be seen just how long the ECB can continue this large-scale quantitative easing. In any event, the European debt crisis is worsening, and I continue to believe that it will have more negative consequences for our markets here.

    A new CNN poll found that Americans' confidence in Congress is at a new low. For the first time ever, a majority of Americans want the bums in Washington voted out of office -- including their own Representatives in Congress. In past polls a majority wanted some members of Congress kicked out, but not their own Representatives. You'll find this story very interesting. Finally, I leave you today with a very good article written by Tony Blankley who offers President Obama some advice for his major speech on Thursday night.

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  • Passive Vs. Active Investing, a New Perspective

    Since the bear market low in early March 2009, US stocks have come roaring back, the last few days not withstanding. In fact, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 are within striking distance of their all-time highs. It is not surprising, then, that advocates for passive buy-and-hold strategies are once again singing their praises: See we told you, the market always comes back!

    What they fail to mention, however, is that hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of investors bailed out of the stock markets in late 2008 and early 2009 and never got back in. The S&P 500 Index plunged almost 51% from its October 2007 high to the low in early March 2009. Not many investors had the stomach for that kind of collapse. Yet the buy-and-hold crowd would now have you believe that everyone held onto their stocks and mutual funds during that period. Not so!

    Today, we will take a fresh, objective look at buy-and-hold versus the actively-managed programs we recommend at Halbert Wealth Management that aim to make at least market rates of return during up cycles, and hold downside losses to a minimum. I will give you the pros and cons of both strategies and show you how you can get these professionally-managed programs in your portfolio (if you don't have them already).

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