Change is coming... I think you're going to like it...

By Mike Turner

Hello Fellow Investor/Trader,

The first change is minor... The name of my weekly newsletter is going to change.

The next part is quite a bit of a change... again, I think (hope) you're going to like it...

Starting this coming week, we will be combining the CycleProphet Trades portfolio and the Top-15 portfolio into a single trading portfolio. And, I will be posting the trades in this newsletter, where, in addition to the ticker, I will also provide you with a synopsis of why I like a particular stock or ETF.

My subscribers have been asking for more analysis and to get the trades in an email so they don't have to log onto the website to get the new trades. This change will facilitate that request.

This also means that I will need a bit more time to pick the stocks and write up the analysis. As such, this means I will be sending out the newsletter on Tuesdays. This gives me all day Monday to look at the market and the equities that I am contemplating to trade. Then, Monday evening, I will send the letter and the picks to my publisher who will send out the newsletter Tuesday morning before noon, ET.

Quote worth Quoting Again

"Be willing to make decisions. That's the most important quality in a good leader. Don't fall victim to what I call the ready-aim-aim-aim-aim syndrome. You must be willing to fire."...


T. Boone Pickens

In most cases, I will be providing an entry price target that is either a bit below the current market price or well above the current market, based on the near-term forecast. This will give you time to execute the trade. My goal is to pick the trades by close of the market on Friday. If a stock starts running away from my entry price, I may either let it go and not pick it up; but if I do decide to go after it, I'll send you an email update with the new entry price.

I will also record a very special video commentary on the trades… which will be posted on the website and only available to subscribers to the newsletter. This video commentary will be in addition to my weekly market commentary.

So... what this means to you is this...

If you are subscribed to any or all of the following CycleProphet services, you will be getting the new trading newsletter without an increase in your current subscription rate: CycleProphet Report or the Top 15 Portfolio or the CycleProphet Trades Portfolio or Equity Analyzer or Equity Forecaster or Market Forecaster.

The new 'trading' newsletter will move into production next week. This coming week, we will combine CP Trades and Top-15 portfolios into a single portfolio. We will no longer provide a percent of portfolio component to the portfolio. This should be a decision you would make and since we do not know your financial situation, we cannot provide a percent of portfolio recommendation.

I am very hopeful you will like the new look-and-feel.


The Bull/Bear and Oscillator Report... (Publisher’s note: Mike’s “Bull/Bear and Oscillator Report” is normally only available to paid subscribers; however, I thought InvestorsInsight readers might like to see how this feature works)

The Bull-Bear sentiment continues to be quite a bit more Bullish than Bearish for this week with a ratio of 2-to-1 in favor of the Bulls. This ratio, though Bullish, has been dropping each week for the past four weeks. Hence the downgrade from +4 to +3 this week.
Add to the aforementioned decline in the Bull-to-Bear ratio, with what could be a topping indication of the black line (sum of both new buys and new short sell signals), coupled with a commensurate bottoming pattern in the red line (new short sell signals) and one could easily draw the conclusion… that this current Bull cycle could be running out of steam.

The time-cycle forecasts tend to be ever so slightly Bullish for the next couple of weeks, after which, the bias gets quite a bit more Bullish.
Could we be looking at a potential minor correction of 2% to 5%? This is certainly possible. However, the data show no signs (yet) of any significant pull-back.

Keep in mind the odds of a more significant correction, increases quite a bit if the black line crosses the red line from above the red line. The CrossOver Oscillator is not indicating this is about to happen, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

This week’s strategy

Whereas last week's best strategy was to buy on dips; this week's strategy is a bit less aggressive. This week, the better course of action might be to consider taking some profits off the table if given the opportunity and make sure your stops are current (meaning, you are using the Equity Analyzer's stop limit recommendations).

Turner Bull/Bear Forecast
For the Upcoming Week

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The Turner Bull/Bear Forecast™ provides a one-week directional forecast on the market, with [-5] being the most Bearish and a [+5] being the most Bullish. This is predicated on the ratio of number of new Buy Signals to the number of new Short Sell Signals for the previous week. The assumption is investors are becoming more Bullish the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Buy Signals; and, the converse is true; the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Short Sell Signals, the more Bearish investor sentiment.

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The Turner CrossOver Oscillator™ provides an indication of the over-bought or over-sold condition of the market. The red line (New Short Sell Signals) shows a technical direction and strength (or lack thereof) of investors to push stock prices lower, triggering new Short Sell Signals. The higher the Short Sell Signals line, the more Bearish the market. The black line (Composite of both Short Sell and Long Buy Signals) is the combined impact of both the new Short Sell Signals and the new Buy Signals and is an indication of the degree of oversold or overbought condition of the market. Buying opportunities exist when the Composite of Signals line is moving higher. The higher this line moves, the more Bullish the market. Market bottoms are represented by a change in direction of the Composite of Signals line from moving lower to moving higher. Market corrections become much more likely when the Composite of Signals line crosses the Short Sell Signals line from below the Short Sell Signals line to above the Short Sell Signals line. The market is represented by the green shaded area.

My Take... on the market

There is an old, old saying that goes like this: "A stopped clock is right twice a day." Depending on the type of clock, it might be right only once a day.

There are those who say this market has gone too far, too fast, and will significantly correct.

They might be right.

There are those who say the market always reverts to its mean and that reversion to the mean is long, long overdue. They might be right, too.

Then, there are those who say the economy is growing, unemployment is dropping, inflation is non-existent, the economic future is blazingly bright, so now is the time to BUY! BUY! BUY!

Even these people could, I suppose, be right.

But, the big question is, "What if they are wrong for a long period of time?" Could the market crash tomorrow morning? Well, I suppose it could, but do you really think it will? I suppose we could throw every penny we have into the market assuming we will never experience a 2008 again, but can you really take on that much risk?

I have said many times, but it is worth repeating yet again, "I am a long-term investor... one-week-at-a-time!"

Each weekend, I study the output from Equity Analyzer, Market Forecaster and Equity Forecaster. If the result of that analysis says to buy or to sell, I trade accordingly.

Why I use “Stop Losses”

But, in all cases, I assume the market could reverse course at any moment and begin a significant and sustained trend in the opposite direction. All of my long biased trades would be wrong and all of my short biased trades would be wrong.

This is precisely why I have developed a very sophisticated stop loss strategy where I set my stops just below each holding's 'normal' implied volatility and adjust those stops every week.

At the moment, in the Top 15 portfolio, we are about 99% invested with an average of about 15% profit in each position, with some positions approaching 40% in unrealized gains.

There are a couple of changes we plan to make this week. We'll raise some stops and we'll consider (but may not) taking some profits off the table. We do not ascribe to the 'stopped clock', 'reversion-to-the-mean', 'buy-and-hold' strategies. We have a set of rules that are dynamic and move as the markets move.

As long as the market is moving higher, we will take advantage of that trend. If it reverses, our stops will keep us within our defined risk parameters. If a stock falls out of the top 100, we will look for a replacement. In other words, our trading strategy is 'business-as-usual' and not hyperventilating over analyst reports or doom-and-gloomers who will, at some point in the future be right.

Likewise, we will never put ourselves into a situation where we hold on to positions regardless of the direction of the market. Those buy-and-hold investors are on borrowed time, because time will circle around at some point to match up with the doom-and-gloom stopped clock types.

We trade the trend and let momentum carry the day.

It is a smart, easy-to-use and very effective strategy. I strongly suggest you incorporate it into your trading life.


Final Thoughts...

We have so much going on that I desperately want to tell you about. But, these 'deals' are still a few days away and I have sworn to my staff that I would not say anything until we are completely ready. However, I can give you a hint or two...

For those of you who have wanted us to include some options strategies into our services... oh... boy... I think you're going to REALLY like what we are about to launch. It is unprecedented. I can't tell you exactly when this is going to happen, but it will be very soon.

We launched our first "Live Trading" session on Monday, August 5… and I’m eagerly awaiting feedback. We have never offered this kind of one-on-one service and since it is live and not rehearsed, there is no telling how it will go.

I guess it could go poorly, but I have a lot of faith that we'll have a blast and hopefully pick some trades that prove to be very, very profitable for our attendees.

There are a couple of other 'deals' in the works that I can't even hint about. I will fill you in on the details as they transpire.

clip_image005I can tell you this... Our tools have been evaluated by some of the biggest and best financial services organizations in the world and they have concluded that our tools are "head-and-shoulders" above all other individual investor tools on the market.

I certainly believe that, but it is great to hear from organizations that evaluate investor tools, to tell us that.

No... I can't name names... not yet.

Have a great week in the market!

Your looking-forward-to-sharing-some-space-in-my-personal-trading-room portfolio manager,

Mike Turner

Founder and President
CycleProphet, Inc.

P.S. If you'd like to know more about CycleProphet tools, or to subscribe, click here:  https://secure.cycleprophet.com/subscribe/

IMPORTANT!

This letter is informational only and is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Any suggested trading strategies may or may not reflect trades that I plan to make in my personal accounts and/or may be similar to trades I have made or will make in the management of my client accounts. In this venue, I do not know your financial situation and I am NOT your financial advisor. As such you should NOT attempt to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this letter unless you first obtain the advice of a trusted professional financial advisor. Buying or selling securities involves risk which often results in significant financial loss. IF YOU BUY OR SELL A SECURITY BASED SOLELY UPON INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN, YOU WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE MONEY.

CycleProphet, Inc., 10002 Glencarrie Lane, Austin, TX 78750 (1-888-628-5556)





Posted 08-06-2013 11:43 PM by Mike Turner