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We (Still) Don't Know What We Don't Know

So, here we are. More than two years into what started out as a credit crisis, one plus year after the Lehman collapse and a question that pertains to the one of the central workings of the equities market cannot be answered. At last evening's Market...

Published 11-18-2009 9:08 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Technical Thursdays, Credit Derivatives, Financial Innovation

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Susanne Trimbath, Ph. D.

My interview with the CEO and Chief Economist of STP Advisory Services includes her libertarian perspectives on the virtuous circle, the risks in the Fed's exit strategy, key consequences of financial innovation, and the next global financial crisis...

Published 09-09-2009 11:26 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Beyond the Sound Bite, US Consumer, Credit Derivatives, us economy

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Gillian Tett

My interview with the assistant editor of the Financial Times and author of "Fool's Gold" includes key aspects of financial innovation, the consequences of a reluctance to lend by financial institutions, the utility qualities of the financial...

Published 08-05-2009 3:33 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Beyond the Sound Bite, Credit Derivatives

In Defense of Financial Innovation

There is considerable talk (much of it rather regressive) about the future of the financial system. In one camp are the advocates of a return to basic banking. Think George Bailey and “It’s a Wonderful Life”. Paul Krugman, John Bogle...

Published 04-07-2009 9:55 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Credit Derivatives, Globalization

Why Paul Krugman is Wrong

Let me start by saying that on many levels, I agree with Paul Krugman. I read his blog regularly and find his work to be of significant value. I also share many of his political views and leanings. But when he makes the market efficiency argument, he...

Published 03-24-2009 12:01 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Valuation, Credit Derivatives

Street Scan

Billionaires are now Slumdog Millionaires because: A. The credit markets remain frozen B. The US economy is falling off the cliff C. Corporate earnings are headed substantially lower (<$50 S&P 500 operating earnings) D. The socialist programs of...

Published 03-10-2009 12:17 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Valuation, Credit Derivatives

Patience, The Lost Virtue

As the alternate universe of derivatives continues their great detoxification unwind, financial assets struggle to comprehend a world in transition to a new financial and economic order. In the process, fixed income markets remain frozen while equity...

Published 12-02-2008 1:09 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Valuation, Vinny Catalano, Credit Derivatives

Just How Bad Are Corporate Profits?

Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the...

Published 11-18-2008 11:02 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Vinny Catalano, S&P 500, Credit Derivatives

Lehman Credit Default Swaps Announcements Today

If you are looking for a reason why stocks are plunging, here's one major reason. Today, at 10:30 AM and then again at 2 PM (both eastern time) announcements re settlement of the massive Lehman Bros. credit default swaps will occur. According to one...

Published 10-10-2008 4:35 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Credit Derivatives

Cutting Off Your Nose to Spite Your Face

Today, the House of Representatives has dealt a huge blow toward stabilizing the financial markets and avoiding a world economic crisis. The less than perfect Paulson bill would have accomplished that goal in numerous ways. One of them, which has been...

Published 09-29-2008 4:16 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Credit Derivatives

Unacceptable

As the world listens to Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke argue for support of their three-page $700 billion manifesto, I wish to focus your attention on a central aspect of the credit crisis – the scale and scope of the credit derivatives octopus. To...

Published 09-23-2008 8:01 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Debt, Credit Derivatives, Financial Innovation

From Chaos to Sanity: The Imperative of Logic

Rules Matter. If the NFL changes its rules of play, does that not have an effect on the game? So, why would a rule change by the FASB or the SEC or a law by Congress not have the same game changing effect? When the FASB said that illiquid and opaque assets...

Published 09-17-2008 11:41 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Financials, Credit Derivatives

There They Go Again

commentary from this week's "Sector and Styles Strategy Report*: Back on February 11th I wrote a report titled “What are the Sell Side Analysts Smoking?” The commentary and report focused on the excessively optimistic outlook earnings...

Published 08-26-2008 6:45 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Weekly Report, US Consumer, Credit Derivatives

One Year and Counting

commentary from this week's "Sectors and Styles Strategy Report : “Of all the newfangled financial creations that have caused problems this past year, arguably the most nerve-wracking are derivatives traded over-the-counter…”...

Published 08-12-2008 4:01 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Financials, Weekly Report, Investment Strategy, Credit Derivatives, Financial Innovation

No End In Sight meets Mr. Alpha and Regression to the Mean

“U.S. bank stocks may be staging another suckers' rally.” Reuters, July 31, 2008 From time immemorial the four most dangerous words in the investment language has been “This time is different”. Today, however, a new phrase...

Published 07-31-2008 7:08 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation, Investment Strategy, Credit Derivatives, Financial Innovation

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