The Age of Turbulence

THE AGE OF TURBULENCE.  Dr. Greenspan’s book is pulling my many years of economic and stock market study together for me.  He ties together historical events with economic events and his own life, starting back in the 1920s.  I knew Greenspan was famous for studying arcane stats like rail car loadings, scrap iron counts and burlap somethings, but now I’m learning how he began this “bottoms up” analysis, as Wall Street terms it, and transitioned into a “top down” approach as he moved further up the ladder in government economic policy making.  His bottoms up always starting off approach is similar in my mind to how Jim Rogers, the famous hedge fund investor of the 1970s, started studying the stock market and economy as well and how Rogers made his fortune.  Both start at the very bottom, collect all possible evidence about an issue, problem or industry and then catalog it into logical order, building a model to work off, and from that, finally drawing conclusions, investment wise or economy policy making wise.  I’m learning about US presidents Greenspan worked for starting with Nixon, then Ford, etc. but more important how their economic policies were formed.  The book is really an insight into Greenspan’s views of the economy – how he’s always been a believer in economist Joseph Schumpeter “creative destruction” and thus how various industries like the telegraph and steel cans have morphed into something more efficient.  Schwartz View:  So Greenspan’s book is going to the beach with me.  I figure I have to read two chapters a day to have any chance to get it read since it is a 500 page book of interesting, but difficult reading.  Still I’m deeply into it because I figure, to use a sports term, it will take me to “another level.” 




Posted 12-20-2007 8:37 AM by Richard Schwartz