Ending Wars Adds To Deflation Pressures & Ends Bull Runs
Principles of the Stock Market

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Have You Seen This?

Have You Seen This?

GLOBAL VIEW.  OK, HERE’S THE REAL BIG NEWS!  All the above is well and good but the key news was shown on the public broadcasting channel last night, on World Focus which runs at 6 pm my time (the old BBC news, now Americanized as World Focus).  I purposely watched it last night to see how they covered President Obama’s big speech to the United Nations.  You know with delegates from Iran, Russia, the Middle East and everyone there.  He did ok, said the expected, set forth America’s agenda.  No surprises.  But the surprise was the word the Obama, after getting a general’s recommendation that we need more troops in Afghanistan, is considering some change of strategy.  To me that could only mean, if he’s considering NOT sending more troops, he considering cutting back on the troops we have there now.




Now if that is the case, markets and investors will have to adjust, and the sooner the better.  Regular readers will remember that during the later part of the five year bull market run up from 2002 to 2007, I used to write that when we pulled our troops out of Iraq, that would likely spell big trouble for the economy.  Slowing it down maybe into recession as the troops came back home and looked for jobs, and thus in turn very likely could be the end point to that bull market.  (Of course things do change and while we never did pull troops out of Iraq, we instead got hit by that unexpected ‘Black Swan’ event, the subprime implosion.)  Anyway, back then I cited the historical fact that when a cease fire in Viet Nam was announced, in January 1973, the bull run of the previous 2 ½ years (coincidentally?) ended.  Basically I’d say because ended the war was deflationary.  This is generally the case.  After WWII ended there was big fear of a recession as well.  Well, in today’s case I imagine the outcome after pulling out of Afghanistan would be similar.  When we stop spending money on ammunition and equipment, on troop salaries, on military logistics, etc., etc., etc., that will also lead to a big deflationary economic slowdown, just what we don’t need right now. 


Of course, President Obama has to think about more than just the economy, he has to think about the safety of the American people, the safety of our troops and overall for what’s best for the country.  Plus, in switching his attention to the war against terror, he might just be buying into the growing feeling that the credit crisis and recession are winding down, buying into the Fed’s SPIN (or the truth) about the economy, so he can look elsewhere and feel that another deflationary force won’t hurt us now.  Remember VP Biden said the incoming administration didn’t realize how bad the economic situation was when they first came in office so that might again be the case.  Schwartz View:  No announcements have been made on what decisions President Obama will make concerning Afghanistan.  Right now it’s all Schwartz speculation (and many times I’m early in spotting something new, I think because I read so much.)   The administration may just be testing the waters about how a change of strategy would be received.  President Obama might indeed follow the military’s recommendation and just send more troops there.  But I doubt it, logic says Afghanistan is unconquerable.  And with a new US president we could have a new US strategy.


Good Time To Sell.  Following this train of thought, I have to say today or soon is another logically good time to take more money off the table.  Ending wars generally lead to deflationary results and the first market participants that pick up on this trend will benefit the most.  Again, a ‘first mover’s’ advantage.  Plus please remember the many years in development SCHWARTZ RULE:  "MOVE EARLY!"  That applies to buying or selling.


Posted 09-24-2009 8:52 AM by Richard Schwartz