Principles of the Stock Market : Elliott Wave Principle

Watch One Particular Stock Market Guru!

Richard Schwartz — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 13:36:00 GMT

AN HISTORIC GURU VIEW. Written Friday morning, August 14^th, 2009.

Being in and around the stock market for the last 35 years -- I can’t believe it’s been that long! -- I’ve seen market gurus burn hot and cold. In my early years I was in more of a daze, doing ancillary brokerage jobs rather than following the stock market closely, just trying to figure out the whole brokerage industry. What a stock broker did, etc. Did I want to be one? Would I be recommending my own stuff? And again not being in New York city, the epicenter of finance, I was on the outside looking in. Even today that’s ones largest hurdle. So anyone wanting into the business I’d advise going where the action is, New York or another financial center like London. If not New York or London are not for you, find a big firm, say a big mutual fund family and get to its headquarters, be it in Boston or Singapore, etc. Anyway, back to point.

Granville & More. I’ve seen Joe Granville burn hot (and drop his pants to show stock quotes on his boxers and walk on water on a hidden board) and turn ice cold in popularity and heard about Jim Dines. I used to follow that curly haired woman guru, yes, that image is bringing her name back, Elaine Garzarelli. For many years I read Richard Russell, one of the deans of newsletter writers and whom I modeled my own letter after, took sample letters to numerous letter writers including Ned Davis, Dan Sullivan, Harry Schultz, Norman Fosback, Lou Navellier, .Marty Zweig, Stan Weinstein and unearthed Ted Warren’s one book (one of my favorites) and read everything I could find. I like William O’Neal’s approach and regular readers know I use and recommend his paper and its IBD 100 list. Having an economics background I gravitated to Ed Hyman’s work and read a number of economist A. Gary Shilling’s books. And read John Naisbitt’s Megatrends series with his long range projections. I’ve read and studied all the Dow theorists from Dow to Hamilton to Rhea to E. George Schaefer to Russell. I continue to read many new guys too, Alexander Elder, “Trader Vic” Sperandeo and on and on. Etc., etc. etc. Many unknown letter writers too. I really could throw a ton of names around if I sat down and reviewed my stock market library and mine and other’s old market letters. So I’ve seen many gurus come and go and burn hot and cold. But one who I continue to admire and track is Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave fame who was the #1 guru way back when. He was a major market mover like Joe Granville. While he uses charts -- which Wall Street loves to disdain, I think that’s mainstream Wall Street spinning a veil and case on the public to justify their big bucks, they all surreptitiously use ‘em -- Mr. Prechter also is now ties market swings to societal mood changes (which makes good sense to me). And is in the process of attempting to add and formalize to current investment analysis the concept of tying stock market trends to mood shifts. “Go for it Bob!”

SCHWARTZ RECOMMENDATION: TRACK MR. PRECHTER GOING FORWARD!

Anyway, I have to strongly recommend keeping one eye peeled on what Mr. Prechter is advising right now. Especially now! I’ve related the histories of Granville and Dines going terribly wrong in this letter, getting stubbornly bearish right at major market bottoms, so I realize the danger now for Prechter in remaining so adamantly bearish but I can’t fault his analysis, what he’s saying and my 35 years in the business tells me to not pooh-pooh his foresight. After reading everyone I can and adding in own my market intuition formed over those 35 years in and around the stock market, I’d say he’s on track. So I’m with him and the other bears, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Gary Shilling, the Comstock guys and others out there, still recommending extreme caution going forward. Remember us outsiders were bearish but correct at the July through October 2007 bull market peak while most of those bullish today were also bullish back then and missed that major top completely. Amazing! I mean even after the subprime disaster unfolding ahead became plain in August 2007 and on the head fake rally to new highs in October 2007 they remained Pollyannaishly [sic] blinded. (And no, for all you individual investor skeptics out there about Mr. Prechter’s work, and I know there’s a lot by reading the responses and comments now added at the end of most all Internet carried research, no I’m not a shill for Prechter. Never met, emailed or corresponded with him at all.)

So, yes, play this rally which will likely run longer than most bears think, but stay near the exit; somehow!

For a FREE sample of my daily, emailed stock market letter and advisory, email me at RichardStk@aol.com.

Stocks Have Risen When The Economy Is Down

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:49:00 GMT

THE BIG PICTURE

The key thought: History shows the economy can be bad and the stock market good! Understanding that one idea is key to making a logical decision about the stock market here. I tried to get this across at Elizabeth’s 9^th birthday party to the family Saturday. The stock market is climbing its “wall of worry.”

THE SITUATION. My stock market and economic history studies of the Great Depression of the 1930s convinced me that stock market can rise while the underlying economy remains in a very weak condition. Because it’s happened before. In the 1930s depression, even while US unemployment remained at horrific, double digit levels for the whole decade and with few safety nets in place to help destitute Americans and with great ongoing divisiveness between political parties, the stock market posted a five year bull market run up, from 1932 to 1937. So, yes, there can exist a great disparity between the stock market and the economy. This confounding, confusing conundrum can exist as long as the economy is not sinking and/or when the economy stabilizes, no matter at whatever low level of economy activity. I believe that’s because the US capitalistic economy is essentially revitalizing and self-healing. Helped today, because over our history our capitalistic system has grown so large and diverse. In other words, first because Americans, with our continued open borders to any nationality, are a breed of extremely ingenious risk takers and thus will find ways to survive and prosper if allowed to do so. If, from time to time, when capitalism gets in a bind, it gets jumpstarted. Or gets the table reset when it knocked awry. Secondly, because today, there just are so many different industries, businesses, ideas, innovations in all parts and regions of America. Just meaning that while construction and manufacturing are down, maybe technology and the media are up. Or while Michigan is down, Tennessee is up. Or while big business suffers, smaller businesses spring up. I’m too provincial to see all this metamorphosis first hand and thus explain this concept more completely but what I see today is an America in downsizing mode, say moving to a rightsizing scale, but not in total collapse mode. Just like China, America in our own way is using this crisis, individuals one by one, businesses one by one, even the government is adjusting, although not totally because the government is itself the ultimate safety net when any major crisis hits. Our government, we’ve learned from past crises, is the rarely needed (thank goodness!) jump start provider, booster or table setter. Thus today America is using this financial crisis to rid our economic system of the bloat, the fat, all the long built up excesses, our bad behaviors and habits, particularly our overspending, even the corruption which always builds up during “unfettered capitalism,” seemingly prosperous but under the surface unhealthy, unsustainable times. Exactly why economists look at recessions as normal, healthy and needed cleansing events and why throwing money at any and all past downturns in recent decades led to this larger than life recent disastrous event. Schwartz View: My conclusion thus -- to get back to my opening statement that stock markets can rise while our economy is down and dirty, weak and lackluster and in substantial downsizing mode -- is that what investors mainly have to fear today is indeed fear itself. That fear partially coming from not being able to understand how the stock market can rise as we read about and see big economic trouble all around us. As I see it that’s investor’s biggest bugaboo now. We all know or should know that, as William O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily has always stressed, that success favors the optimist. Now I don’t mean the Pollyannas, I won’t besmirch the many of this ilk whom get be angry, they got their comeuppances by getting blindsided and riding the stock market down for 17 straight months between October 2007 and March 2009. But today, since we’ve moved past the bankruptcy risk, at least for the time being, no guarantees about future shocks knocking not us back down, we should overcome our fears and our misunderstanding of the economy and stock market relationship and again participate in the stock market to the extent of our own financial goals and objectives and how we’ve performed over the last two, years, during the bear market since mid-2007. To reiterate since this concept is so darn important, the hardest move to make is to buy stocks after this financial earthquake and while we see all the resulting damage around us. In other words, to separate the stock market from the economy. It’s very difficult for us investment professionals as well because every day we watch the stock market closely and/or read every update about each remaining financial problem. We all need to overcome our fears to make money during this full cycle. Easier said than done!

THE ECONOMY

The economy is so large and varied now that even with the shock and resulting dead stoppage of economic activity for many months, we’ve been able to stabilize the economy. Thanks to our government learning from our past travails and understanding its role. President Bush gets much credit but he’s gone now and thus last Friday I heard the first words uttered about an “Obama Miracle.” Pulling totally out of this massive slump is another thing and may take much time yet although we could post some surprisingly great numbers in coming months. Inventory rebuilding looks good statistically and allowing home foreclosures provides changes of ownership from the overextended to new risk takers. Still, over America’s 200+ year capitalistic history we’ve built a vibrant and reenergizing economic system so there’s always something good taking place somewhere and while the distressed and/or overbuilt areas of our economy right size the in fashion areas keep us moving forward. And our government has and is still performing admirably (sorry, I know many readers don’t agree with me), stabilizing our financial system and thus setting the stage to allow capitalism to provide us with future growth while at the same time realizing that any and all government intervention always adds additional drags on the economy and is trying hard to avoid such. While at the same time smartly tackling our long term deeply entrenched and ignored major issues and thus pointing America towards a more fundamentally sound future, remaining as one of the world’s leaders. Such as taking the lead in going green as the “clunkers for cash” program epitomizes. Americans really want to do their part and this program is providing one capitalistic way to do so. Getting polluting cars off the road while stimulating growth at the same time and in essence cutting back money supporting terrorism. I gotta love it! Schwartz View: So, we’re back on the right track in lots of ways and I’m delighted. But don’t get complacent. Please keep reading!

Please email me at RichardStk@aol.com for how the stock market will respond to the above analysis and whether, in the following THE STOCK MARKET and PORTFOLIO STRATEGY sections it’s time to buy the stock market today or not.

BUY CHINESE SOLAR

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:20:00 GMT

GLOBAL VIEW. China’s Growing SOLAR Niche. China’s domestic-investor only stock market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite continues to rise. Looks like Chinese investors are setting themselves up for more trouble after the Shanghai exchange rose some 514% from mid 2005 to October 2007, then fell -73% through October 2008. But before that next collapse happens, I see Chinese solar stocks as good buys here. Let’s review the larger picture first, then I’ll talk China and renewable energy.

Asia Bottomed Five Months Back? Remember ASIA in general hit its last bear market lows back last year. China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines all last hit lows last October, along with some Latin American developing markets like Brazil and Chile. That’s six months ago thus way past the normal three weeks to three months counterswing rally time frame. So is Asia in a new mini bull market? Other regions of the world, meaning the US and CANADA and most all of EUROPE continued lower until just last month. So by my Principle of Relative Strength, which recommends always (almost) focusing on those countries, markets, individual stocks showing relative strength or outperformance, Asia in general is the area for us to concentrate our attention on today. I previously wrote last Wednesday and Thursday how well known Bob Prechter, Jr. and his Elliott Wave International advisory service says parts of Asia are now in a big bear market RALLY phase in the cycle. Like an A wave back up which can be powerful, long lasting and sizable. And I also pointed out how “hot” and well known, Swiss investor Marc Faber is now saying buy Asia on any “setbacks” (there hasn’t really been any). And I ended last Wednesday’s report with a buy recommendation on India, offering up as one way to trade or invest, the India Fund (symbol IFN) which closed Wednesday at 18.25. IFN closed yesterday at 20.69. So in general Asia is where the best action is now. Plus regular readers will remember even before that, back on February 10^th, I recommended investing in Chinese agricultural and offered up a list of stocks which you could choose from (I bought one of the 13 stocks listed; did you buy any?). Plus a few days prior to that, I went to great effort and posted the whole 100 stocks separated by industry sector on the USX China Index for you to print out, keep and go shopping from.

China In A Sweet Spot. That’s because the Chinese government, with it’s unique, command-style quasi-free marketplace, blending capitalism and government management still has great and speedy influence. They can rapidly decide on a, any, direction for the country and quickly move down that path. Not like us here in America with our democracy. We take lots of time getting any bills passed (but when we do agree on a new law, we get better if not implementation). Of course, China still has to fight its widespread corruption and pay offs at every step forward so their implementation is harder. Still, perception is everything in the short term in the stock market so implementation problems aren’t a concern over the near term. And near term the Chinese government has just changed the laws to encourage solar (and other renewable energy like wind energy use). Back on March 26^th China “introduced a subsidy for solar projects of more than 50 kilowatts that could pave the way for increased sales of rooftop systems.” One analyst projected that this change could increase solar demand this year by 58 megawatts and 232 megawatts annually by 2012. This announcement moved Chinese solar stocks up the most ever in one day and the rally in Chinese solar is now in its third week and still looks solid. One London analyst said after the announcement that: “China has the potential to double the solar market, soak up the excess capacity that’s out there, and get manufacturers back on their expansion plans.” Another report said: “China is closing older coal-fired plants and implementing clean energy to fuel economic growth.” The government itself said its going to implement its “solar roofs program” to accelerate the application of solar energy. Schwartz View: Good for you China! Just lead by example, that’s the way to do it. Don’t worry about what other countries are doing. (What we should do here in America too regarding renewable energy.) A more recent announcement says China is writing a new renewable energy law and on that news solar and wind stocks jumped again. The essence is that China wants to increase renewable energy usage to 10% of total energy consumption by 2010 (from 7.5% in 2005). Go China Go!

BUY CHINESE SOLAR. Net, net, I recommend buying Chinese solar!

SOME CHINESE SOLAR STOCKS

Mkt Analyst Next

Symbol Company Name Price Cap Ratings EPS Business Line

STP Suntech Power Holdings 14.49 2170m 7-12-11 5/21/09 China’s largest solar manufacturer

YGE Yingli Green Energy 7.67 964m 7-6-2 5/15/09 PV modules and PV systems

LDK LDK Solar Company 8.04 928m 1-8-5 5/12/09 Multicrystalline solar wafers

JASO JA Solar Holdings 3.58 589m 6-7-4 5/11/09 Solar cells

TSL Trina Solar Ltd 13.21 388m 3-6-4 6/5/09 Solar-power products

SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings 4.73 252m 0-3-5 5/21/09 PV modules

Disclaimer! I own a small amount of Yingli Green Energy but can and do change positions without notice.

For a FREE week's sample of my complete daily letter, please email me at RichardStk@aol.com

Oil Rally Likely Says Elliott Wave Theory

Richard Schwartz — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:18:00 GMT

COMMODITY VIEW. Oil Rally Begins. Elliott Wave theory, originally produced by R. N. Elliott in the early 1900s, and now carried forward by Bob Prechter, past #1 market guru, basically says Elliott waves or complete market movements come in threes. Well, to more accurate, Elliott says movements really come in fives, three in the prevailing direction, and two counterswings in the other direction. Right now I see three distinct and obvious movements downward in oil and other commodities. Meaning I see a complete movement just finished. So now I have to expect a move in the other direction, a rally upward in oil. For chart lover’s edification, and to see what I see, the three legs down are as follows.

Complete Elliott Wave Movement. The 1^st leg lower off the July 3^rd, 2008 crude oil top ended roughly August 12^th. After a minor sideways counterswing upward until August 29^th, oil, and commodities in general, began their 2^nd legs down with a gap lower the next day and continued downward to September 16^th, where the second counterswing rally upward began. This lasted for only a few days, until September 22^nd before the 3^rd leg down began. Starting September 22^nd, oil, and commodities in general, fell along with most everything else financial in the rare forced panic right through to the bottom on October 27^th. So we now have a complete three legged or Elliott Wave decline in place.

Schwartz View: At this point then I expect some type of oil and general commodity rally, which has already begun, beginning six days back. Maybe going hand in hand with a general stock market rally. But remember, there’s no saying oil can’t just keep on falling after this pause or rally attempt ends. We could easily soon start another whole new movement down in oil. But, bottom line important, this is the price and time point where it’s logical to play for a rally if one’s so inclined. I am so I took a small position in oil on Monday on the dip which took oil back down but not down below its October 27^th lows. Then yesterday we had a big up day in oil after which we were left posted a higher high. Add that to a higher low the day before and over the last week we’ve quickly met the definition on an uptrend, a series of higher lows and higher highs. Thus traders might want to take note and mirror me, using the next decline, oil’s down as I write this morning, to do so as long as we don’t break the old crude price lows. As for additional reasons oil why oil may have finally found its leveling off price, crude at its recent low was down a Fibonacci number, down very close to 61.8%. Normally a great point to expect a bounce. Plus hedge fund commodity deleveraging might just be ending along with the thawing and maybe long awaited ending to the horrific credit crisis. Finally, just use some common sense. No matter how poor the US and global economy gets, a certain amount of business is still going to need to be done.. And with no progress made in freeing ourselves from oil over the last 30 years, no matter what I want and believe will is on the way to happening, it’s not going to occur overnight. Oil is still going to have to be utilized for years to come; why not a rally to some leveling off point, say maybe at about 50% off its highs or in the low $70s?

Disclaimer! I own a little oil with small positions in Rydex Oil & Gas Ultra (RYEIX) and in ProFunds Energy (ENPIX).

Once a Century Day of Reckoning Starting?

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:44:00 GMT

THE BIG PICTURE

Ok, here’s a Big Picture of where America and we Americans stand today. A fairly downbeat Big Picture so buckle your seatbelts. America has been on the verge of a major comeuppance for many, many years. But its been postponed and postponed. Because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency we’ve been able to play by different rules than the rest of the world but now we’ve pushed that special benefit to the limit and beyond. But each time we’ve come close to going into a major economic recession, which almost by definition means a near term cleansing out and thus longer term strengthening of the economy, we get “bailed out,” so to speak, by the Federal Reserve or by our much deteriorated if not totally corrupted political system, i.e., by the sitting president and his staff or by Congress. Our economic problems which terribly need to be resolved, just get more and more money thrown at them (which just makes them worse and more deeply entrenched) say by President Bush’s multiple tax cuts upon taking office in 2000 or by the Fed dropping interest rates rapidly or through the floor or both. For example, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan numerous, back to back to back interest rate cuts in 2001 and 2002 and current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s dramatic rate cuts since September. So our economy has been artificially pumped up and stimulated by what I call, financial “steroids.” time and time again for many years now. But now this use of steroids just isn’t working. Now all the money the Fed is pumping into the system to mitigate the credit crunch and crisis is just causing a big bubble in gasoline (and heating fuel prices) in America which at $4.00+ a gallon is now being felt widely. I say $4.00 is the tipping point and things are going to get worse quickly now because of the four following examples over the past weekend. First, Lucy let her Honda get down to a quarter of a tank for the first time in a long time. She called the dollar cost to fill it up

“eye-opening” numerous times as we drove off and away. I could hear the wheels turning in her head. Second, a real estate owner told me he was feeling this recession with a massive increase in real estate taxes, etc. and that he never felt any previous economic downturns in his life. Knowing me I probably blurted out it was just beginning, but I hope not. Third, awhile after my Sunday early morning bird walk, while reading the paper and drinking my coffee I heard the morning manager of Stewart’s, the local all purpose convenience store, tell another customer, a bit desperately, she couldn’t afford to drive to work now. And lastly, when I called to wish my brother-in-law Happy Birthday, my sister, retired but who was a bank trust officer in Buffalo for many years, says she’s never seen anything like this looming downturn. All in all, I expect $4 gas or out of control oil prices in general, is what the stock market discounted roughly six months back, it’s normal advance foresight time frame, when it really collapsed back in January, it’s first leg down in this bear market.

Now, Price Inflation. This commodity inflation, this cost of living inflation or price inflation, is starting to work its way through the economy in food prices as well. Watching the free marketplace work, in effect dramatically weeding out, killing off cattle herds because it costs too much to feed the cattle, that’s going to reverberate into higher hamburger and steak prices down the road. Plus Chinese wage demands will now work their way into much US clothing prices as well during this cycle. And if the US dollar keeps dropping, as it will because the US balance sheet is in such terrible shape, all prices will rise even faster. I’d go so far as to say commodity guru Jim Rogers’ and Peter Schiff’s predictions of hyperinflation are becoming a distinct possibility. All this rising inflation as the economy sinks and US wages stagnate or go lower and jobs shrink. So it’s not a pretty picture. And it’s possibly worse than a normal recession because we’ve put off this day of reckoning for so, so long. For example, in Trader Vic Sperandeo’s two early 1990s books, Trader Vic – Methods of a Wall Street Trader and Trader Vic II – Principles of Professional Speculation, he predicted a day of reckoning right then or very soon. And related to us a little history of how the US government operates, trying to paper over our problems by lowering rates, cutting taxes and whatever else they can think up to throw more money at our problems. This works and works and works … until it doesn’t work anymore. So far no one really has been able to predict when the day of reckoning will arrive. In the late 1980s/early 1990s was a flash point for trouble but we muddled through. Then another flash point around the dot.com bust from 2000 to 2002. But lower taxes and lower interest rates got us through. But now, 2008 -- 10 is the next flash point. Who knows? This time may indeed by the real thing. It sure looks it. Why? Obviously because the extremely important financial sector, the very area which has been driving the stock market higher by soaking up all the Fed and other government liquidity and manipulating it to make things look better and better on paper, has now imploded and gone bust. As Peter Schiff writes in his 2007 book, Crash Proof and Robert Prechter Jr. wrote in his 2002 book Conquer The Crash manipulating financial paper/assets/capital around to make it seem like we’re getting wealthier is a lot different than when America did grow wealthy by actual manufacturing, producing things people need and thus were willing to pay for. In the 1950s and 1960s we were the manufacturing colossus we lived on some of our profit and saved the rest. That’s how you build wealth. This disparity is one of Mr. Schiff’s key theses. Also one of Mr. Prechter’s major theses as well, just illustrated differently. Mr. Prechter, a chartist, says the US economy performed its best in the 2^nd leg up of this long term business cycle, say from the 1950s through the 1970s which shows this 3^rd leg up is nearing a major top. Schwartz View: So it’s all coming together now, seemingly. All the wrong paths we’ve followed for years coming home to roost now. That’s my guesstimate anyway. So, is this latest market decline really the beginning of America’s day of reckoning whereby the rest of the world finally loses confidence in America, waking up to the deception of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, as Mr. Schiff describes it? Does the US dollar really head down as the world unloads our Treasury bonds, thus forcing up long term interest rates, which in turn ratchets up the already gigundo squeeze on America and us individual Americans and make the situation even worse? No one really knows for sure as Mr. Prechter reports these true economic disasters only occur about once a century! Like in the 1930s in the just departed 20^th century and once in the 19^th century as well. Why would this once in a century event be beginning now? As bad as things now look, maybe somehow we’ll get bailed out and the day of reckoning postponed once again. But since I began this stock market letter, 18 years ago in September 1990, I’ve watched things get worse and worse, not on the surface where we had a great stock market run in the 1990s, but under the surface, as democracy got pushed back and back, as labor unions lost power, as corporate statesmen became extinct, as much needed government regulation somehow morphed into a swear word and became despised, as liberalism or helping the unfortunate became obsolete behavior and as capitalism ran away unchecked, benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus over and over again whenever the economy lapsed into the normal down wave of a business cycle leaving us today with just a shell of the old wealth producing US economy. Yep, all looming economic crises and recessions have been pushed to the back burner by our dysfunctional political system which now listens only to corporations through their lobbying efforts. A system which even business if fed up with. Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, pensions, health care, energy, the environment, a big wow! when I write them all down, all these long term vital issues have been avoided because of capitalism gone wild, because doing anything about them would “… hurt the economy and be bad for business … .” The same mantra Congress just used as its reason last week to kill a critical climate bill! Just awful action. Politicians should know there’s more to the economy than keeping the steroid sham going year after year, there’s more than keeping the business lobbyists happy near term and there’s more than their next election result. The US economy needs to be cleansed out from time to time and thus made fundamentally stronger for the longer term and more competitive in today’s new global economy. We still have the strongest, most fundamentally sound economic, financial and social system going from all I can tell. And the country has more than just our economy to worry about and strengthen for the longer run. We also need to re-strengthen our democracy once again after the loss of common man representation that’s taken place over the last 30 to 40 years. Actually, it’s no one’s fault, this push into Supercapitalism as Robert Reich terms it in his latest book of the same name, what has happened in America over the last few decades. But now it’s time to look at and push the flip side of the coin, to reawake democracy which is vital to American life as well. We need to regain representation for little towns and smaller groups, non-profits, etc., etc., all those groups who can’t get their sides of the story heard any more today as corporate lobbyists dominate. Again, I don’t blame anyone for what’s evolved. That’s capitalism, if left “unfettered” as even Republican presumptive presidential nominee Senator John McCain has described today’s economy, it will go to an extreme … as it now has. * For the record, one can get all five books I’ve just mentioned above from www.Amazon.com or elsewhere. And I recommend them all.

March 17th, 2008: Fateful Day Turned Markets

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 13:50:00 GMT

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Tuesday, April 29th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. The stock market has some uncertainty – there’s that awful word again – about tomorrow’s Federal Reserve 2:15 p.m. interest rate policy announcement. For the first time in a very long time...(read more)

Prechter's Views Still Germane

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 14:39:00 GMT

THE BIG PICTURE I started reading another doom & gloom book yesterday. It’s Robert Prechter, Jr.’s 2002 CONQUER THE CRASH . I know, I know. Too much focus on the glass half full. Still I don’t want anything to sneak up on me, on us. Immediately upon...(read more)