Principles of the Stock Market : Technical View

Weekly Monday Overview

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:17:00 GMT

Richard Schwartz's

PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET

A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service

Eighteenth Consecutive Year of Publication; Letter #1; September 18^th, 1990

Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz, New York 12561 - U.S. A. · (845) 255-6894

E-mail address: RichardStk@aol.com

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Monday, April 6^th, 2009: It’s Master’s week so I’m pumped up. It’s golf’s 1^st major of the year, tradition packed, for you non-golfers. Should be great with Tiger back, Phil Mickelson saying he’s playing the best golf of his life, Paddy Harrington going for his 3^rd major in a row and lots of up & comers. All I can say is wow! Even just watching this old southern flower nursery turned into a golf course in the spring, lavished with money for decades, may be worth the watching for any non-golfers out there. For me, it’s just heaven.

THE KEY QUESTION

Instead of discussing The Big Picture today, let’s focus on The Key Question. Since that’s what I keep pondering. Plus it has to be on every investor’s mind as well. “Could this rally be the start of a new bull market?” To intelligently answer -- as during every bear market rally -- necessitates rehashing all the available evidence. I can make a solid case for a cyclical bull market having just started and I can make an even more solid case that this is just a normal bounce in a Papa Bear market. Consider:

MINI BULL MARKET HAS STARTED

·        The economic stimulus is now starting to kick in which will stabilize and bounce the economy.

·        The monetary stimulus, lower interest rates, is also now kicking in and housing sales are increasing.

·        Inventories have been drawn down and need to be restocked which will pump up GDP growth near term.

·        The US and other governments have done everything possible to mitigate this downturn.

·        We now have more coordinated and get along global leadership than in many years.

·        The US economy has proven itself wonderfully resilient to shocks in recent decades.

·        Markets can counter-swing at any time for long periods, posting mini bull markets, versus primary trends.

·        Almost two years has passed since the beginning of the credit implosion back in July 2007.

·        Many independent market gurus think the March 2009 lows will last for a good while, months or longer.

·        The latest government bailout plan has more enthusiasts and support for it than previous plans.

·        Oil stopped falling back in December and is now on the rise possibility indicating growth rebounding.

·        We have recently had a number of better economic data reports from both retail and housing.

JUST A BEAR MARKET BOUNCE

·        The bear market hasn’t lasted long enough to discount all the problems that have come to light.

·        More problems, coming as bearish ripple effects and because of long lag times, are due to show up.

·        The bear market hasn’t fallen deeply enough to factor in the sudden massive shock to the global economy.

·        There hasn’t been enough overall selling or liquidation for a solid bottom. Stock and mutual fund liquidation haven’t reached previous classic big bear market bottom levels.

·        No solid bottom appears on the charts. We need a climatic sell off or a long low volume erosion to bottom.

·        Interest rates have to go up at some point, soon – either with and because of an economic rebound or from panic selling -- which normally depresses stock prices because of this new competitiveness from bonds.

·        The American consumer has suddenly stopped spending. This has slowed down business all over the world and finally exposed the global imbalances problems. Too much manufacturing in China and Asia and too much spending coming from America. Now those imbalances are being forced to readjust. Takes time.

·        The stock market is ignoring soaring unemployment. Yes, employment is a lagging indicator but continuing jobless claims isn’t. A new report just out says that in coming weeks and months, hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits. Finally, 600,000 new job losses each month is going to add to weaker consumer spending, problems for local communities and cause negative ripple effects.

SCHWARTZ CONCLUSION: In review, we started this big bad bear market back in the year 2000. That was the peak of the last big bull market and thus the beginning of this big bear market. This is evidenced by the benchmark S&P 500 Double Topping in March 2000 and October 2007 and then subsequently and decisively breaking below October 2002’s previous decade-long lows by over 10% in March 2009. Showing that since 2000 and the ending of the Internet boom we’ve really been living on lower interest rates and big tax cuts, a false, “pump me up,” house of cards. Really not any wealth building going on, just paper shuffling to make things look great fueled by easy money credit creation. But now reality has set in. Thus, looking around, we see we’re almost nine years into a bear market which has been interspersed with one bull market, running for five years. So stocks were down almost two & a half years, up five years, now down about another one & a half years, sort of repeating The Visit of the Three Bears. In that infamous and extended bear market run of nine years, netting a -50% loss, there were two cyclical bull markets sprinkled in and surrounded and book-ended by the three bears, Baby, Mama and Papa.

My conclusion remains that this bear market is not over. But that the form and shape of it may get tricky going forward. Because the market has a history of posting cyclical or short term or mini bull markets on the way down when the bear gets ahead of itself. Which is why the stock market remains so fascinating!

THE ECONOMY

Well, the BUZZ has died down about how the economy is slowing its prior quick rate of descent. Guess because we’ve started seeing more bad economic data pop up or because the conversation has moved on. But some investors have decided an end to the economic collapse is out there, just over the horizon, so they are shifting into cyclical stocks now as a result. One can see this money rotating out of defensive sectors such as medical care, consumer staples and even gold. You know the concept, buying in advance of a recession’s end since history shows stocks rise roughly six months before the economy turns up. But if we indeed are stuck with a very mild even “anemic” economic recovery, as many figure, then stocks could also soon level off to mirror that trend as well. That is if the economic and earnings data don’t start sinking fast once again showing the economy is still sinking. For example, last Friday it was reported that the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index which now measures almost 90% of America’s economy - America now being a service oriented economy instead of a manufacturing economy - fell faster in March than in February somewhat debunking the idea that the economy has stabilized. Schwartz View: Yes, there is the possibility that economy-wise we are going to V- back up because sharp moves, in whatever areas of endeavor, are generally followed by responding sharp moves back up. We’re seeing that now in the stock market but after this bounce is over, I agree with the camp forecasting an anemic slow economic recovery.

THE STOCK MARKET

The stock market extended its rally to four straight weeks last week. We did see the first crack in this rally a week ago when the market fell sharply for two days. But then we quickly rebounded to new rally highs. That’s normal, the first crack being overcome but it does show this rally may be starting to struggle. We are getting closer to my minimum upside targets of Dow 8303 and S&P 1627, closing Friday at Dow 8017 and S&P 1621. And one can note trading volume has been slowing some, another sign of sluggishness. Or maybe cautiousness. Makes sense as we’re now moving into another corporate earnings reporting season starting tomorrow, the 1^st quarter January-March 2009 report kicking off after the close with Alcoa (AA), traditionally the first of the 30 Dow stocks to report. With the fall-off-the-cliff economy occurring early in last year’s fourth quarter, it only stands to reason that investors have to be wary of forthcoming earnings and thus wary of this rally as well. Schwartz View: It looks like the stock market has some more strength left in it so with stocks already having rallied beyond the 50% retracement level from their latest leg down, the early January peak, the teeter-totter phenomenon comes into play. Getting halfway up means it’s very likely to go all the way back up. Thus we kick off this week at roughly another key Fibonacci 61.8% price in both the Dow and S&P 500. That’s about 8088 and 838 respectively. If we break through those levels, then the next target is those January highs, Dow 9088 & S&P 944. Not guaranteed but increasingly likely.

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

2009 may indeed prove to be the year to trade. If stocks fluctuate but go nowhere net, up or down, for many months ahead then it’s going to prove very frustrating for investors. In these times and they do happen, more often than the uninformed investor may realize, the best way to make profits is to: (1) trade individual stocks and (2) discipline yourself to continuously fade the market, buying on dips and selling on strength. Toward that end I’ve started incorporating the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) technical indicator into my work. Comes on most charting services like Bloomberg. Basically it shows deviations from the moving average, when stocks get too far overbought or oversold. Naturally you buy when a stock or index gets oversold. For more on the CCI I suggest getting Oliver Perez’s Swing Trading Tactics DVD or Alexander Elder’s book TRADING FOR A LIVING. Over the last month of rally for instance certain stocks have far outperformed the averages. And numerous tradable asset classes or market sectors like the US dollar and oil have been both up and down offering trading profits but no net profits for buy & holders.

Otherwise than scalping profits what should we do? For now favor the long side and the cyclicals. I like technology, renewable energy and natural resources. Move up a notch in your market exposure to about 30% if you haven’t already but continue to hedge your bets and don’t get out on a limb by going too long. Just subdue your ego, don’t think you know more than Mr. Market does and just go with the flow, modestly. Bottom line take what the market gives you, right now there are some trading opportunities but don’t get carried away. There’s lots more trouble to come but the path ahead is likely to get more tricky as well. So don’t fall into the camp that says “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.”

Have a good week!

Go Tiger Go!

US Dollar Peaking?

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:18:00 GMT

US Dollar’s Possible Turning Point. A Possible Trade For Traders? Written St. Patrick’s Day.

The US Dollar Index (symbol DXY) has fallen back just after breaking out above an old high. Hm, very interesting as some predict the US dollar weakening will be a first sign of normalcy coming back into the marketplace, that it will signal increased liquidity and a return to a bull market. We’ll find out whether these prognosticators are right or not and about the relationship between the buck and stocks over time.

Today though, this doubling back by the US dollar is a bad sign for continuing dollar strength This chart formation is what “Trader Vic” calls a 2B. That’s when a new high is set but quickly reversed. Let’s see, the DXY on March 2^nd closed above its prior closing high of 88.191 set back on November 21^st at 88.940 (Interesting. November 21 was almost exactly when the November to January stock market rally began.)

Anyway the US dollar index stayed up above that November high for seven days and then last Wednesday closed below that November close, at 87.868. Now, for the last four days, as stocks have risen, it’s stayed below its high and fallen further. “Trader Vic” in his first book, METHODS OF A WALL STREET MASTER wrote: “At major market turning points, long-term 2B’s, the new high or low will usually break within seven to ten days.” In this current case, the US dollar index fell back below its old high after seven days of being above its November high. That fits Vic’s time frame nicely. Let’s review a bit further back as well. This US dollar rally started last July 15^th or its run for eight months now. OK, could have run its course. The question is whether we have a “short the dollar play” here or not. For more evidence, let me go check another dollar index, Bloomberg symbol USTW$, the related, broader-based dollar index, which measures a much larger basket of currencies including a lot of developing market currencies. You may remember that most all currencies have been falling versus the dollar over the last year as the old rule has held up, “When America sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold.” Just meaning that tough times get real tough elsewhere when America stops buying; you can imagine the hardship this brings to other exporting countries, etc. Anyway, the broad based index has tracked the DXY pretty closely, moving higher since last July. It’s last high was 84.91 set back on November 21^st last year. Then on February 27^th, it closed higher, at 84.93. And stayed higher for the next ten trading days or until last Friday. Today it’s trading lower, at 84.628, as I write. So after ten days above its November high, it also has reversed lower or doubled back. Net, net, there does seem to me a trading opportunity. And in today’s modern age of investing we have vehicles to easily short the US dollar. In the ProFunds mutual fund family, there’s the ProFunds Falling US Dollar fund (FDPIX), in the Rydex family, there’s Rydex Weakening Dollar 2x Strategy Fund (RYWBX) and over in the ETF (exchange traded fund) market there is PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN). Obviously the ETF allows you greater liquidity because it trades like a stock, you can buy and/or sell it any day during the trading day.

SCHWARTZ RECOMMENDATION. Ok, after looking at the evidence let me recommend for an intermediate term trade going short the dollar using one of the three vehicles above. Do so in a very modest way and as just one of a variety of strategies. While keeping lots of cash on the sidelines. Also figure I’m wrong … and thus you need to sell to cover, if the DXY index again reverses upward and closes above its old high, higher than 89.105, your mental stop loss point. Your risk is about a point in UDN while the reward if the dollar has turned down from a major top is much larger. I like that risk vs. reward.

Disclaimer! I hold no positions in the three symbols above but can and do change positions without notice.

SCHWARTZ TIP: Finally, there are three very useful trading tips spelled out in Trader Vic Sperandeo’s two great, early 1990s published books: METHODS etc. and PRINCIPLES OF PROFESSIONAL SPECULATION. I’ve used them repeatedly over the last couple of years and they’ve proven reliable, not perfect but reliable. So I’d suggest any market follower needs to be aware of, knowledgeable about and applying all three in everyday activity. They are the two I refer to in today’s letter; the 2B Rule and the 4-Day Rule. The other is the “As easy as 1-2-3” change-of-trend rule. Actually there are more tips in his two books that are very useful too. But for any trader or speculator, spotting change of trends early on is very useful and profitable information. Get his books, know his rules. “Yay Trader Vic!”

To get FREE sample or subscribe, please email me at RichardStk@aol.com.

Principles of the Stock Market: Sample

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:56:00 GMT

Richard Schwartz's

PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET

A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service

Eighteenth Consecutive Year of Publication; Letter #1; September 18^th, 1990

Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz, New York 12561 - U.S. A. · (845) 255-6894

E-mail address: RichardStk@aol.com

Subscription · One-Year Morning E-Mail Delivery · $150.00

Tuesday, January 6^th, 2009: OK, back to the rat race. The weather remains ugly. Yesterday am it was all ice. Tonight it seems like snow, then severe ice again tomorrow morning. This is the time of year I wish I lived in southern California or other warmer clime. Still, tiny New Paltz is a college, mountain town with open space, a walk around lifestyle so Lucy & I are there for the duration. Of course with beach vacations.

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET. The latest gigundo $800 billion economic stimulus plan, now called the Obama Recovery Plan or some such, as he puts his fingerprints on it, may cause a bigger stock market rally than I previously thought, I realized last night as I watched the Nightly Business Report (before I got in the bathtub with reams of printed research to read). The Nightly Business Report (NBR) showed very wide differences in economic growth rates. Much stronger economic growth with the plan. Or rather much less economic weakness with next year showing positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the plan and negative GDP without. Now I know the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) just said we’ve been in recession since December 2007, sort of bypassing the outdated GDP stat altogether but not every investor realizes this yet. CNBC and other financial media still take the easy way out, constantly stating a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, but as Peter Schiff writes in his latest book, THE LITTLE BOOK of BULL MOVES in BEAR MARKETS, most government stats are really skewed, biased toward what government wants to say, today. Also please remember, a stronger GDP really measures mostly spending … and overspending which is what we’re trying, what we need for the sake of America’s future, to get away from. More investing our money, not spending (blowing) it on unneeded gadgets, etc. But that’s a story for another day. Yes, what a mess!

THIS RALLY. Right now I can visualize stocks rising right into Senator Obama’s inauguration on January 20^th as the 44^th US president. (Obama as US president? Amazing!) Stocks rise as the plan comes into clearer focus, and as it becomes -- hopefully, cross fingers! -- a non-ideological, non-partisan bill. Hey, many Republicans should be very happy to come on board as surprise tax cuts are included and surprises also about the large size of the tax cuts, importantly including tax cuts and larger depreciation write offs for business! (We have to encourage, not discourage, business to invest, just the opposite of what FDR did during the 1930s.) Schwartz: Myself, I love what I’m seeing from our president-elect. Press conferences actually focused on improving America, not arguing among parties, open and honest talk and also a proposed web site so Americans can see where each of our dollars is going. “Go America Go!”

RALLY ENDS WHEN? Then maybe it’s all over, this bear market rally ends on inauguration day or shortly thereafter, say when the bill gets passed. But if those GDP interpretations I saw on NBR last night are reasonably correct ( it will take much time to discredit and change how we figure GDP to make it more relevant again) then maybe the US economy gets a sizable lift which lasts for some longer period of time before our still emerging problems pull us back down again. If that happens I can see a mini bull market or cyclical (short term) bull market unfolding this year, say starting back at the November 21^st intraday lows.

Schwartz View: Bottom line, my best recommendation this morning is that traders and many slightly longer term investors too get further reinvested back into the stock market. Not 100% for sure yet but higher exposure than in a long while. When? Say right now or very soon. Many key market indices and averages confirmed this new rally once again, on the first trading day of the year, last Friday. That’s the exact point – when we have a “Trader Vic” identified change-of-trend in place, we do, along with a higher low followed by a higher high, we do, and then we get another breakout move up and above that higher high (like occurred last Friday) – where correct strategy is to invest more.

ECONOMIC VIEW. Like I noted yesterday, I’m seeing more and more record statistical drops, like yesterday’s drop-off-the-cliff report from the auto industry; Chrysler leading the way down with a year over year drop of a mere 53%! My point is that just like the phenomenon in stocks when the economy drops fast it may also have a tendency to bounce back rapidly. I note some are now saying the same for oil, using history of something called the forward curve of futures prices. Of course this almost automatic, stock rally back likely doesn’t go all that far. Just like when a car crashes into a wall, bounces back, but still in drive, comes on again. Depends on how bad the crash was on how long the engine keeps running fueling the bounce back. Schwartz View: I have to think this financial crash of ours was extremely bad. Still I can see another big stimulus plan, if pointed at and framed correctly, using our brains and learning from past mistakes, doing a lot to produce some positive stats for a time after implementation.

TECHNICAL VIEW. Many Individual Stock Charts Looking Good! I drew up charts of almost all 100 companies on the latest IBD 100 weekly computerized list of leading stocks, stocks with good fundamentals and generally leading the market upward, yesterday afternoon. And I must say most now look good. A few of them are even already back above their highs set BEFORE the October panic sell off. That’s one of my parameters for possible buying as per my Principle of Relative Strength telling us what to buy. As to what other technical screens I used as I reviewed their charts on two charting services I get, Bloomberg, and for FREE on www.Marketwatch.com, I used RSI and DMI primarily. Briefly RSI stands for Relative Strength Index, it’s an oscillator, and measures market consensus psychology. While DMI stands for Directional Movement Indicator and is a trend-following indicator showing how fast a trend is moving and thus when a trend is worth jumping on board. Traders of all sorts should be familiar with both indicators I’d say. I would recommend Alexander Elder’s 1993 book TRADING FOR A LIVING as the best reference I’m aware of to bone up on these and other indicators.

Here’s a listing of a few companies and their underlying industry sectors which look ripe for trading this latest rally. Remember Investor’s Business Daily turned bullish, put the bull back in the box, back on December 3^rd and hasn’t been forced, by stocks hitting lower lows, to take it out since. This is a major difference for months prior to that. A bullish change. So let me post some stocks which look good to me.

Disclaimer! I own none of these stocks today but am considering buying a package of about three to five today or soon. Please remember my positions can and do change without notice.

IBD 100 STOCKS LOOKING TEMPTING

Market Industry

Price Cap Ranking Business

SXCI SXC Health Solutions 19.03 455m 2 Pharmacy Services

LPHI Life Partners 42.27 502m 3 Insurance Brokers

ESI ITT Educational 92.28 3570m 5 Schools

TWGP Tower Group 28.74 700m 8 Property/Casualty Insurance

HOME Home Federal Bancorp 10.65 184m 11 S&L/Thrifts-Western US

VSEC VSE Corp 42.34 215m 18 Engineering/R&D Services

SXE Stanley, Inc. 35.74 839m 18 Engineering/R&D Services

SYKE Sykes Enterprises 19.65 810m 18 Computer Services

AVAV Aerovironment Inc. 39.38 831m 23 Aerospace/Defense

TDG TransDigm Group 35.00 1703m 44 Aerospace/Defense

NPK National Presto Inds. 77.88 533m 63 Aerospace/Defense

NCIT NCI, Inc. 30.66 410m 70 Computers-Integrated Systems

SXL Sunoco Logistics 48.80 1398m 90 Energy Pipelines

CMP Compass Minerals 63.12 2046m 117 Quarrying

Schwartz View: It’s been some time since I posted stocks off IBD 100 weekly list. Because of this bear market. But this rally looks like it may just have some legs and my market philosophy is to play all decent looking rallies, modestly. I would thus suggest a three to five stock trading portfolio chosen from the stocks above. Some points to keep in mind. Don’t overdue it! We’re still in a bear market after all and one which looks to have more downside, even if it doesn’t come immediately. Also remember IBD recommends investors always focus on the top 40 or so industry groups. Finally, look for a quick +10% profit but cut your losses, individually or whole port6folio-wise, quickly. Remember we just might be starting some type of cyclical (short) bull market now but, on the other hand, the odds still favor much lower prices over time. So participate but always concentrate on your downside, how much you could lose.

Good trading! Have a great day!

Monday Weekly Strategy

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 14:37:00 GMT

Richard Schwartz's

PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET

A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service

Eighteenth Consecutive Year of Publication; Letter #1; September 18^th, 1990

Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz, New York 12561 - U.S. A. · (845) 255-6894

E-mail address: RichardStk@aol.com

Subscription · One-Year Morning E-Mail Delivery · $150.00

Monday, December 22^nd, 2008: So here it is, last letter ‘till Monday, January 5^th, as Lucy & I fly off to the white sand, warm blue waters of the Caribbean, maybe on a last hurrah (if the economy keeps sliding). I’m taking Cycles of American History & Rethinking the Great Depression books. Our routine is: Go to the beach, play backgammon, read & go out to dinner. Day after day. Warm our bones & work on new tans.

THE BIG PICTURE

Friday I saw John Bogle, who has been on Wall Street for 50 years and who created the first index fund, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund back in 1975, say investment bankers and bankers generally owe the country a huge apology (which I doubt we ever get). Their imprudent speculations and greed for massive fees from too complex speculations led to today’s financial sector problems, problems which have now fed out to the real economy hurting innocent, hard working, everyday Americans. Mr. Bogle says greed has even spread out to our whole economy, that we’ve morphed into in a “me first” society and it’s something we have to seriously take a look at. Thus capitalism, allowing markets to work unfettered of regulation and based on trust and trusting, has now been “deeply discredited.” Even the underpinnings of capitalism have changed radically. We’re no longer an ownership society whereby individual stockholders used to select and then hold 92% of all common shares; institutions 8%. Now institutions control 75% of shares through huge sums entrusted to them by others and have not invested prudently. Again, because of the incredible fees they got for investing. Mr. Bogle says they sure wouldn’t manage their own monies so recklessly. These institutions were supposed to be wiser than individuals but, again, it’s not their money. Supporting Mr. Bogle’s view is the revelation that 29 of the 30 largest losers in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme scandal were institutions whereby just one of these fund of fund companies was paid $160 million in 2007 alone for recommending the Madoff “hedge fund.” In other words, where was the fiduciary responsibility, the prudency, the probity expected when we entrust institutions to manage 75% of our investments? Schwartz View: Regular readers know I’ve been distressed and pounding the table about a number of these societal issues for years. About capitalism running amuck, culminating its 30-year trend toward widening the gap between it and its counterpart, democracy, with President Bush’s skewed one way Texas twang policy saying the be all and end all is that “bidness is bidness” and thus stifling regulation. And about society becoming so uncivilized, we ended up booing our own hometown, beloved sports teams! So while no one wants to live through what may come next in the economy, I have to say America has finally woken up, albeit after the nightmare it usually takes to precipitate major change, and that we are now started down a long and arduous path, but one finally pointed in the right direction again. As one example, we’ve even started to SAVE once again; amazing! So, for myself, I guess sort of a contrary indicator in recent years, I’m becoming more optimistic and bullish on our future. Finally! “Go America Go!”

THE ECONOMY

It became apparent that the US economy was suddenly falling-off-a-cliff right after Lehman Brothers became the one firm chosen NOT to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Department. (Looked back upon as a colossal mistake in strategy I’ve read.) Lehman’s bankruptcy rippled out far and wide and led directly to losses in some money market funds, a “breaking of the buck,” and thus then to a total loss of confidence. Now, by all accounts, the economy is in total free fall. This sudden screeching halt in US business activity has caused the same in our global trading partners and most everywhere I look is now in corresponding economic free fall. You extrapolate it for yourselves from here. One view I’m pondering is that many times sharp declines lead to the second leg of a V-move, back up, and we’re overdue. Maybe stocks, with their recent unwillingness to keep going lower on bad news, means Mr. Market (the consensus of large investors) sees some end out there to the economic free fall. Still, we’d have to see some economic revival to expect a sustained V snapback in stocks. For now, I see 2009 providing a steady stream of bad news every time we look up. Just like in the second year of the last Papa Bear bear market, back in 1974, a continuing stream of bad news back then ultimately overwhelmed all attempts to rally until the final months of that year. Schwartz View: The consensus I’m hearing is that this sudden, fall-off-the-cliff global economic contraction is NOT going to lead to a repeat of the depression-spawned 1930s starting with its four-year long period of contraction followed by its anemic recovery, a.k.a. the Great Depression. I hate to follow any consensus especially when this one’s been so wrong for so long. But my own history look backs and studies by Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, an expert on what went wrong in the 1930s, turning a recession into a depression, show that we raised taxes, cut spending and blocked global trade, just the wrong policies. So I sure don’t expect any exact repeat of those failed policies. Leading me to think out of the box and that maybe today’s Fed policy of battling a deflationary depression is also implementing incorrect strategy. How about worrying against runaway inflation spawning from all the money the US and now the world has and is still throwing at this economic slump? Just the problems we worried about in the early 1930s but didn’t occur. You know the old saying, people fight the wrong war, the old war, because that’s what’s still fresh in their minds. Thus, summing up, maybe we can’t expect much creativeness from the Fed pointing in the less obvious direction of battling inflation since they are entrusted with getting us through hard times. They will naturally, after learning certain lessons from the 1930s well, not break much new ground. One reason being that if their policies didn’t work, they would be heavily criticized for experimenting. Thus while everyone pooh-poohs an inflation problem, I still worry about one. Seems like the consensus, which may be correct, among the minority expecting and talking about an inflation problem, doesn’t expect one until 2010 at the earliest. Keeps me thinking about that quote I printed here back on Friday, December 5^th, from Sir John Templeton: “It’s impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.”

THE STOCK MARKET

Maybe we’ve started off on a new, lasting stock market rally as many now say. Maybe the November 20^th closing low and November 21^st intraday low did end this bear market or at least this phase of it and start us up and on a new mini bull market. But I don’t think we can determine that from these final days of stock market trading this year. This jig jag, saw-tooth modest rally we’ve had in December – the Dow remains down -2.8% this month, but up +13.6% from its closing low on November 20^th – still looks like just a time killer rally to me after stocks fell -6% in September, -14% in October and another -5% in November. So while I’m off on my annual winter beach vacation, I’m leaving my managed portfolios hedged with a slight long bias, still with my modest overall about 20% or less market exposure which I’ve carried since late last year. You remember late last year? At least as a lesson learned for the future, if for no other reason. After the stock market rallied back from its original car wreck in July, in what amounted to a head fake, false move, dead cat bounce and pretty obvious sucker’s rally, and a failed break out to new highs by the Dow and S&P (while the rest of the stock market refused to confirm).

Anyway, last week I ended the letter by noting that psychologically we should rally since bad news couldn’t drive prices down in recent days. Technically we had what could prove to be two months of base building everywhere I looked on the charts (but bases which could easily prove false). Fundamentally we even finally had low enough market valuations, like P/E ratios, to support a rally as well. But how about a catalyst? Well, let me offer up: (1) much lower gasoline prices which keeps our wallets and purses fuller and healthier, and (2) the good feelings anyone watching our president-elect making non-partisan, non-political, non-ideological selections for his cabinet, should feel. There may be a wellspring of good feeling, a sort of honeymoon psychological effect on investors, business, consumers and most all of us as we hope our new president can perform miracles. Schwartz View: Unfortunately no one man is going to remake America overnight. So, while keeping an open mind and watching all unfolding developments, for now I’ll back history which says this “worst financial crisis since the Great Depression” has to lead to an extended Papa Bear market, one which lasts at least a couple of years. Not just for one year, where we stand today.

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

I hate to follow or even agree with some of what I’m hearing about going forward strategy, especially if such is espoused by those who were so wrong all this year. I’m speaking specifically about Bob Doll, now at BlackRock as their “Trillion Dollar” fund manager. I don’t want to pick on anyone but since he’s been leading the charge forward as stock markets collapse and getting all the face time doing such, I guess I have to. I start off very skeptical because my belief is that these big money managers are not going to get on TV and recommend anything before they and their clients get first crack at their thinking, ideas and recommendations and position themselves accordingly. I already wrote awhile back many old stock market books talk extensively about how big money always used to try to sucker the little investors. The age old technical Wall Street term “distribution” implied big guys needed little guys to unload their big positions on to when they foresaw a bear market ahead and thus put on a bullish face. It took much time to unload huge positions these large investors stockpiled so much frenzied excitement about the stock market had to be built up as big money sold. What better way today than Bob Doll coming on CNBC ubiquitously and always saying we are now in a bottoming process. He said that back in March and those who followed him are much the worst after the October panic crash. Anyway, that’s all secondary, although supporting, my main point. My main point is that Mr. Doll now says next year is going to be a good one for those taking on risk, not for those playing it safe. Again sounds good to me, at least at first blush. We all know what goes down the most generally can bounce tremendously when psychology changes. But do we really want to buy really risky investments in just the early part of the second year of a big, bad bear market? I say no. Bear markets of this size and scope historically have taken a lot longer than one year to work through.

Net, net, probably Mr. Doll will be proven correct about taking on risk, if one doesn’t factor in any time period. I’d guess risky asset classes will move fast when this bear market ultimately does end but do I really believe its going to end soon? No. And if we do have a 2009 mini bull market, say because stocks have fallen so much, then I’m not going to count on Bob and other institutional investors to tell me and us exactly when to get back out. No, starting off next year next week, I’d suggest still playing our cards close to the vest. Yes, play modestly for a continuing rally but look at it for now as just a bear market rally.

Happy Holidays & Happy New Year!

Richard

Patience: Outlast This Bear Market

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:19:00 GMT

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Monday, December 1^st, 2008: Since Lucy’s birthday was a Round Number & fell on Thanksgiving, everyone surprised her & came back Friday for tea. At the Tea House in the village, a reconverted barn on a hill with a great view of the mountain, a view I hadn’t seen before. Almost everywhere in town has a mountain view which makes me feel like I live in Lake Placid, another charming mountain town. Love it!

PS. I caught a bug which I’m working through today but possibly no letter tomorrow if I feel worse.

THE BIG PICTURE

I spent Thanksgiving evening discussing the past, present and future with my son Brian. In essence he asked me for a simple explanation of what caused the stock market to drop so much, what terms like deregulation, re-regulation, privatization, etc. mean & what the big picture looks like. Here’s my answer:

Let’s start with the two classical economic theories of thought. One, let free markets operate on their own, the old Austrian school of economics as promulgated in the early and mid 1900s by Friedrich Hayek versus two, getting government involved in the economy as advocated during the same time period by John Maynard Keynes. Both gentlemen lived through both world wars, the Great Depression and for decades beyond and their influence ebbed and flowed. Both economic theories had their time to shine, alternating roughly 30 year periods. The last totally free market cycle began its ascendancy when President Ronald Regan was elected to office in 1980. Since then union’s power has declined dramatically, corporate statesmen who shared equitably corporate wealth have became obsolete and bottom line profit became the only goal which caused stock price to rule business actions. During this long run in a totally free market direction whereby prosperity grew larger and larger spreading out to millions worldwide, normal prudence, probity and recognition of investment risk ultimately got lost. Greed took over completely when Wall Street came up with its latest round of newfangled, supposedly sophisticated investments, especially those incorporating securitization. Securitization just meaning turning all types of debt into securities which could be sold while spinning off huge commission style profits to everyone involved in the process or food chain. This, along with the 30-year trend to more and more deregulation, allowed commercial banks into previously banned investment areas, using heretofore unheard of leverage which caused capitalism to finally go off the deep end. By this I mean a 20% correction in our overheated, overdone, overblown US residential housing boom led to a bust after one bank woke up one day last summer to huge paper losses which soon showed everyone else was stuck with similar losses. This blow off following by an implosion and meltdown are the types of culminating events which cause these 30-year cycles to start swinging in the other direction. I now believe we’re just started a new long term swing away from free market economics as advocated by Mr. Hayek and towards a government role in economics as advocated by Mr. Keynes.

Summing up, we’ve just gone through that part of the long cycle which allows capitalism to run unfettered and thus grows the pie for everyone. The downside is that the gap between the rich and poor grows ever larger when we practice laissez-faire capitalism, essentially letting the marketplace alone which leads to the strongest doing best. But cycles are cycles and all eventually go to extremes and then swing the other way. Again, as I see it, we’ve just gone to one extreme and are now just beginning to cycle the other way, down the path whereby government steps in and applies regulations to the latest, most egregious ways of gaming the system. Which interferes with the magic of letting the free marketplace find its own proper price levels between consumers and producer providers and thus drags down the overall efficiency of the market. The rationale is that something has to be done to avoid another rare but normal breakdown by capitalism. Net, net our free market capitalistic system normally goes from one extreme to another, that deregulation goes so far it causes problems, then re-regulation sets in. With privatization or the selling off of previously government run businesses or business sectors being one form or aspect of deregulation. Thus, the last year’s breakdown and implosion in our financial system didn’t really show free market capitalism doesn’t work anymore, it just shows we’ve come to the end of the normal continuing pendulum swing out to one extreme and are now starting the long journey back to a middle ground and then out to the other extreme.

THE ECONOMY

Not much to comment about on the economy today.. We’re in that middle time period of this bear market and at the start of an economic downturn. Thus I expect the economic data, corporate earning reports and most other news to be pretty consistently bad for some time to come yet. One rule we do know about how the stock market operates and how it relates to the economy is that stocks turn up a few months before the economy does (with exceptions). So finding a bear market bottom will incorporate more than just watching the data. Waiting for the economic data to turn positive will make most investors months late in reentering the stock market. Schwartz View: Thus, myself, I watch the charts and believe in what I’ve espoused for many years, that charts tell you when to buy and then the fundamentals confirm down the road.

THE STOCK MARKET

Mr. Stock Market keeps trying its best to rally now. Last week the economic data was just plain awful and stocks rallied anyway. I wrote previously that stocks refusing to go down on bad news would be a good clue that the market has gone down enough, at least for the moment. Still, some remaining problems are: (1) I don’t see a proper base to support a big rally, unless I’m getting tricked by the undercutting of that possible base built from October 10^th through November 19^th, (2) I don’t see any improved fundamentals and still expect lots more bad news to become known next year and (3) history shows after financial glitches and consumer confidence losses of this magnitude bear markets and recessions following lead to once-in-a-generation market declines which don’t get over in just one year, roughly the time period we’ve seen this bear market last for so far. Yes, big bad bear markets generally last at least a year and a half to two years to even three years. Also this bounce reminds me very much of numerous temporary previous V-bottoms and short lasting rallies we’ve seen over the last few months. But a rally is a rally is a rally. And we have to play them. Eventually one rally will morph into the next bull market. Thus the key is to always keep sight of the Big Picture. Today the big picture perspective shows we’re firmly entrenched in a big bad bear market. So, in general strategy should be to sell and sell short rallies instead of buying dips. But when rallies periodically begin, we should modestly go along with them,, go with the flow, one toe in the water. That way if any rally proves to have legs we’ll start profiting immediately and know about it right away. But not to jump in with both feet because primary bear markets, just like primary bull markets, do reassert themselves, and until proven differently, it’s a whole lot easier to profit swimming with any tide or trend than swimming into it. Schwartz View: I’m trying to find a technical reason, say a good looking chart pattern at least, to buy a particular sector, but so far no luck. The one bullish trend which I see today is in the US dollar. Strength began back in mid-July and thus when strength continued past the three month normal max time frame identifying a bear market rally, or past mid-October in this case, and kept on going, I termed the strength as a new bull market. Otherwise everything else looks like iffy trends.

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

Strategy remains one of outlasting this bear market. Of proving you have more patience than Mr. Bear Market does. This is a difficult job which will test your discipline again and again if the past is any guide (which I believe it is). Over time you’ll be tempted to buy back in again and again whether you see a believable bear market bottom or not. Especially if you’re one who really watch stocks, the whole Wall Street show, daily. So continue to do any irresistible buying and or investing in a much smaller, subdued manner. Keep just enough money in the stock market to keep you interested and not so much that future declines can put you out of the game and out of business. And stay tuned here to find the real bottom.

Have a good week!

"No One Can Time The Stock Market"

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 14:18:00 GMT

TECHNICAL VIEW. The Principle of Technical Analysis. I don’t want to jinx myself but I can’t keep quiet. Not after hearing the usual Wall Street mantra again this morning. That is, that no one can time the stock market so it’s always best to ride out its ups and downs. I mean this type of misleading & confusing information is one big reason why I started this stock market letter back some 18 years ago. Part of my motivation, to quote myself, was to “unveil the mystery surrounding the stock market.” I saw numerous misstatements and unfounded general beliefs which I just thought were plain wrong being foisted on the investing public, not large institutional investors but aimed at individual investors. After working as a stockbroker/financial consultant for 15 years, I realized that Wall Street kept nurturing the stock market’s mystery. Why? For Wall Street’s best interest. Why pay a stockbroker or brokerage firm big bucks if individuals could understood for themselves the market? No, only if individuals felt (and kept feeling) overwhelmed by the market’s workings would there be a need for advisors and a way to charge big fees.

Anyway, I don’t want to get off track. I just want to comment on the one line of reasoning which we’ve all heard repeated so often that most now take it as fact. That is that no one can call the tops or bottoms of bull and bear markets. We hear it from about 50% of the mutual fund managers, market strategists and others every time they come on TV. Many begin with something like: “Since no one can call a bottom, …” Not only does this perpetuate the need for market advisors it also justifies the roller coaster performance of these money managers. Hey, it takes the pressure off them, right? As long as they are doing about as well or as poorly as the overall stock market, then they are doing their jobs well. At least that’s the thinking.

But then what about all the traders out there? Why did hedge funds start then? If no one can time the market what about this whole cadre of people trying to outperform the market? And what about those fabulously successful speculators we hear about? Some do time the market correctly is my answer.

Schwartz View: I’m sure many others did as well so I’m speaking just for myself now. After studying the stock market for 35 years, all facets from timing to investment themes and much, much more, I was able to correctly identify last year’s market collapse as the beginning of a bear market pretty early on. In spite of those who say no one can do such a thing. And I stepped up, following my own reasoning and got Lucy’s 401k or 403b or whatever it is into 100% cash. Right before we went away on our annual Christmas beach vacation last year. And thus kept her retirement account from falling about in half! With my managed accounts, I followed generally the same path, figuring my top priority was protecting our downsides because the market was turning bearish. Since then I’ve been able to keep mostly to the sidelines, watching this bear market unfold, gather steam and keep on rolling. This in spite of hearing the “Trillion Dollar Man,” BlackRock’s Bob Doll, incorrectly call a bottom in March, Mad Man Cramer call a bottom in July and other bullish, skin-in-the-game advisors come on CNBC and say they are buying, that a bottom is near or building a bottom is a process and you’d better get in now “…since no one can call the bottom.” Well, the bear market continues and we keep seeing further and deeper declines. My sense, as I’ve been writing for months now, is that this bear market will last for at least two years or until at least next October simply because what’s hit us is the worst mess since the Great Depression of the 1930s. So why wouldn’t this bear market last at least as long as the last Papa Bear market, the two year long drop in 1973-1974?

Bottom line, while I don’t expect to call the bear market bottom before it arrives or to the day (except in hindsight) I believe with the tools, skill sets and experience I’ve now got, after studying the market’s primary trend, history, psychology, value, technicals, etc. for decades, I should be able to identify the bottom reasonably well. Part of my overall game plan entails trading most possible rallies so when one does prove to be the real thing, I’m in with at least one foot near the start. Then, as I see prices rising, I should be able to get in more heavily. Bottom line, I believe anyone who’s willing to put in the time and effort should be able to quickly identity tops and bottoms in the stock market, totally counter to what we always hear. Oh, one last point. Be careful of the fear that these always 100% invested advisors love to leave you with (just like dentists do). That is the mantra that if you miss the first days of a new bull market, you’re in trouble. Sure the first days up are normally exciting and big. But bottoms generally are retested, providing the sharp-eyed observer more than one reentry point. And bull markets run for years not just for a couple of days. So don’t worry, be happy, if you’re now 50% or more in cash on the sidelines. Just stay tuned here. Because one way to indeed miss the bottom is to lose interest in stocks during a long bear market. Go ahead, lose interest if you’re 100% invested now because you’re already in a bind. But don’t lose interest if you’ve played out this hand fundamentally correct. If you’re saved yourself a bundle by already going against the Wall Street mantra of staying invested “because no one can time the market,” then stay in touch with stocks for your reentry point. One good and easy way to do so is by just reading this letter each day. It’s only a couple pages long, doesn’t take much time to read, you’ll learn something new most of the time AND you’ll be aware pretty quickly, & ready to profit, when this market turns up.

Oil Rally Likely Says Elliott Wave Theory

Richard Schwartz — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:18:00 GMT

COMMODITY VIEW. Oil Rally Begins. Elliott Wave theory, originally produced by R. N. Elliott in the early 1900s, and now carried forward by Bob Prechter, past #1 market guru, basically says Elliott waves or complete market movements come in threes. Well, to more accurate, Elliott says movements really come in fives, three in the prevailing direction, and two counterswings in the other direction. Right now I see three distinct and obvious movements downward in oil and other commodities. Meaning I see a complete movement just finished. So now I have to expect a move in the other direction, a rally upward in oil. For chart lover’s edification, and to see what I see, the three legs down are as follows.

Complete Elliott Wave Movement. The 1^st leg lower off the July 3^rd, 2008 crude oil top ended roughly August 12^th. After a minor sideways counterswing upward until August 29^th, oil, and commodities in general, began their 2^nd legs down with a gap lower the next day and continued downward to September 16^th, where the second counterswing rally upward began. This lasted for only a few days, until September 22^nd before the 3^rd leg down began. Starting September 22^nd, oil, and commodities in general, fell along with most everything else financial in the rare forced panic right through to the bottom on October 27^th. So we now have a complete three legged or Elliott Wave decline in place.

Schwartz View: At this point then I expect some type of oil and general commodity rally, which has already begun, beginning six days back. Maybe going hand in hand with a general stock market rally. But remember, there’s no saying oil can’t just keep on falling after this pause or rally attempt ends. We could easily soon start another whole new movement down in oil. But, bottom line important, this is the price and time point where it’s logical to play for a rally if one’s so inclined. I am so I took a small position in oil on Monday on the dip which took oil back down but not down below its October 27^th lows. Then yesterday we had a big up day in oil after which we were left posted a higher high. Add that to a higher low the day before and over the last week we’ve quickly met the definition on an uptrend, a series of higher lows and higher highs. Thus traders might want to take note and mirror me, using the next decline, oil’s down as I write this morning, to do so as long as we don’t break the old crude price lows. As for additional reasons oil why oil may have finally found its leveling off price, crude at its recent low was down a Fibonacci number, down very close to 61.8%. Normally a great point to expect a bounce. Plus hedge fund commodity deleveraging might just be ending along with the thawing and maybe long awaited ending to the horrific credit crisis. Finally, just use some common sense. No matter how poor the US and global economy gets, a certain amount of business is still going to need to be done.. And with no progress made in freeing ourselves from oil over the last 30 years, no matter what I want and believe will is on the way to happening, it’s not going to occur overnight. Oil is still going to have to be utilized for years to come; why not a rally to some leveling off point, say maybe at about 50% off its highs or in the low $70s?

Disclaimer! I own a little oil with small positions in Rydex Oil & Gas Ultra (RYEIX) and in ProFunds Energy (ENPIX).

Studying Similar Sharp Declines & Their Bottoms

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:26:00 GMT

The Principle of Understanding History & The Principle of Technical Analysis. Written Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

OK, yesterday I heard one analyst, I believe it was Liz Ann Sounders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab say the recent sharp year-over-year (yoy) stock market decline is only rivaled by the year 1974 and two years back in the 1930s. I could make a good guess which years in the 1930s those steep yoy declines came but I went back and checked anyway because those are the years along with their stock market bottoms that I want to start studying, their charts and their economic, financial and psychological backdrops as well. All three years were big bad bear market years as yoy declines of -30% or more would have to be. 1974 was the year our last Papa Bear market ended, and was the second year of that bear market. 1931 was smack in the middle of that big Papa Bear (stocks bottomed May 1932 and in rallied the second half, preventing 1932 from making the list). And 1937 was the year the five year, first bull market after the Papa Bear of 1929-1932 ran out of steam and the economy ran off the cliff and we had a short but very severe Mama Bear market. (I distinguish Papa bear markets from Mama bear markets by their lengths, the 1937-1938 bear market lasting only one year.) A first, brief cursory review of those big down years is as follows:

· 1974. The total decline in the Dow came to -45.1% in just under two years. The stock market’s bear market ending was immediately preceded by a most severe leg down in stock prices, losing -27% in less than two months from early August through October 4^th. The ultimate bottom was characterized by the Dow Transports NOT making one last new low along with the Dow Industrials in early December. Schwartz View: Diverging in other words.

· 1931. The total decline in the Dow came to -89% and took just under three years, September 1929 to July 1932. 1931 came in the middle of that horrific Papa Bear market so that’s dismaying for us today. But, similar to the bottom in 1974, the 1932 bottom came after a grinding last leg down in stock prices. From March through July 1932, we saw an inexorable day-after-day, four-month decline totaling -54%. Whew! Schwartz View: Trading volume was the distinguishing characteristic of that market bottom, shrinking up noticeably.

· 1937. The total decline in the Dow came to -49% and took almost exactly one year. The bulk of the 1937 Mama Bear market occurred primarily during a sudden market collapse from August through December and encompassed another extended, depressing, sharp down leg of -40%. In October of this four-month leg down, trading volume spiked during a mini crash but that wasn’t the final bottom. Schwartz View: The bottom came on much reduced trading volume in March of the following year and prices didn’t really move up until volume again picked up, in about June.

SCHWARTZ SUMMING UP. My first, quick gleanings from reviewing past market bottoms after the three most severe year-over-year declines in stock prices, like one we're in right now, indicate we might look for anultimate market bottom to include: (1) a sharp leg down just preceding the bottom, (2) a divergence between the Dow and the Dow trannies and/or (3) sharply lower trading volume for some weeks before the ultimate bottom. Stay tuned for more to come while hanging tough.

Strategy for a New Leg Down

Richard Schwartz — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 14:18:00 GMT

TECHNICAL VIEW. Written Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

A New Bear Market Leg Down Likely Starting! Schwartz Strategy.

Right at the close yesterday, the Dow Industrials dropped sharply going from -400 points down to -500 points down, closing at 10,917.50, below its previous bear market July 15^th closing low of 10.962.50. The S&P 500 did the same, closing at 1192.70, below its previous bear market low of 1214.91 also set on July 15^th. Thus, after yesterday’s big down day, the Dow & S&P have both gotten back in sync to the downside with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 400 Midcap, both of which closed below their previous bear market lows last Tuesday. The question is which way next. Is this breaking of support just a head fake, a false move, and stocks will ultimately hold around here? Meaning that these new, still modest new lows are just widening out the bottom end of the trading range we’ve been in since mid-July. Maybe if the Fed or government again rushes in on their white horses to save the day. OR is this the beginning of another leg lower in stock prices during this grizzly bear market? I suggest the latter.

Bear market corrections upward usually last from three weeks to three months and take the form of either a bounce, or if technically too weak to bounce, some sideways, killing-time price action. Earlier on in bear markets, upward corrections are likely to be just that, upward bounces, since many investors still don’t believe a primary downtrend has taken charge. Note our recent mid-March to mid-May, two-month bounce. But now, a few months later in this now widely-acknowledged bear market, when its more obvious that something is deeply wrong, we were only able to post a weak, one-month, July 15^th to August 15^th killing time sideways “upward” correction. Thus I make the odds high we’re now breaking lower.

Schwartz View: Yep, my guesstimate is that indeed we’re beginning another new leg down in stock prices. Just common sense alone tells us after the major convulsions and damage going on in the investment banking sector, the financial & economic backdrops are in worse shape than back in July. Thus lower stock prices should result as the market gropes for a new lower price level to make its next stand.

The next few days should tall the tale for sure about a new break lower or not, but if you agree with me, correct strategy is to again follow my Schwartz Rule: Move Early! That means moving today! Shorting something today. Whatever happens, up or down. Remember, when cutting back after any market index or individual stock tops out, the “first loss is normally the best and smallest loss.” Well, the same thing applies when buying or when selling short. The first early move is generally your best.

· WHY? So if you haven’t been able to follow through on my consistent, persistent advice to lower your market exposure since I first starting calling this decline a bear market last November, now’s another point in time to do so. I know, I know, many advisors on CNBC say it’s too late to sell now but I disagree. Please remember these are the same advisors who’ve been seeing bottoms each step downward and who have to always carry a bullish market bias. As I see it, the downside from here could be just as great as the -20%+ we’ve lost so far. I’ve been writing that for awhile now. And now a move to lower prices may be starting. Thus if you have previously cut way back, to 50% or less market exposure, I applaud you since I know it’s very hard to make the decision to sell anytime, especially after you’ve seen and felt your portfolio at higher valuations.

· WHEN? The other, second, fundamentally logical time to sell or sell short is in a day or two or three when the stock market bounces. Say if we go lower for the next few days, then bounce for a day or two. The closer to the July 15^th lows the better because old downside support, when broken, becomes new upside resistance.

· WHAT? As to what to short, that gets more sticky. Remember the marketplace itself, by money once more quickly flowing into US Treasuries, is lowering long term interest rates on its own. Thus rounding up the usual suspects, REITs, utilities and the other beaten up, battered down financials (which many still adamantly say bottomed out back on July 15^th) may not be the way to go. Lower interest rates should take some near term pressure off these interest-sensitive sectors. Better may be finding a way to short the real economy, namely those businesses that aren’t really financial in nature but that actually produce or manufacturer something tangible. That’s what I’m investigating today. To find some inverse sector funds and or ETFs which suit this purpose.

Papa Bear Market Downside Target

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:16:00 GMT

THE STOCK MARKET

Hope camouflaging a water torture, drip-by-drip decline is one way of describing today’s stock market. The big problem with all the bottom calling a few months back by Bob Doll, BlackRock’s “Trillion Dollar Man”, by Mad Man Cramer last week and by Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) putting the “bull back in the box” last Tuesday and by the majority of Wall Street guests on CNBC is that they all continue to offer up hope to other investors who don’t really watch or track the stock market and economy closely. This continuous bullishness follows the historic pattern of investors not believing a bear market is even here and thus not noticing or ignoring the financial damage they’re occurring by listening to the experts, until somewhere near the bear market’s ultimate bottom. Finally, when they’re surrounding by negative news and can actually feel the economy turn really sour all around them, they take to not sleeping well at night, sweating profusely under the intensifying pressure and end up selling right at the bear market bottom along with everyone else. I’ve studied economic and stock market history and unfortunately I see that normal historical pattern playing out again today.

To make matters worse for the minority who are now waking up to what’s going on, we’re already morphed into getting only sideways stock market corrections upward, not rallies, which means to most investors that it’s too late to sell. As regular readers know I believe we’re still in line to lose as much or more than we’ve already lost so it’s really not too late to sell. It just takes some courageous decision making, terribly difficult today after investors have seen their double digit losses on their quarterly statements. But down the line sometime decision making time will rear it’s ugly head again. Selling then, at or near the bottom, will finally provide short term relief although long term regrets.

Schwartz View: In terms of a long term Papa Bear market downside target, in the S&P 500, the professional’s benchmark, logic says we should “retest,” or go as low, as the previous Mama Bear market bottom set back in October 2002 of about 770. From 1261 now, that’s about another 35% or more on top of the 20% we’ve lost so far.. That would take us to the bottom end of a multi-year trading range which already has two tops in place. About S&P 500 1550, the early 2000 peak to the grand bull market of the 1990s and the late 2007 peak of about 1575. And put us into a similar multi-year trading range to the one the stock market stalled out into lasting from 1966 to 1982 before it finally broke Dow 1000 to the upside. And confirm a number of theories floating around today. Big picture specialist Jim Rogers’ view that long term bull markets run for about 18 years, www.ComstockFunds view that the 1982 bull market really did top out in 2000, past top dog guru Robert Prechter’s Super Cycle technical peak and super global investor George Soros’s fundamentally-based belief that the 30-year credit expansion which was the engine driving the US economy, as we gave up our manufacturing domination, is indeed over. And most likely prove that Rogers’ recommendation of getting out of the US dollar was correct. Schwartz View: Near term we certainly could rally some, but I wouldn’t bet too much on such. Especially since my previous warning of a weak stock market period surrounding Northeast homeowners getting our winter oil heating bills has arrived. Friday we got the oil bill for our small townhouse. It was at a rate of $4.699 versus last year’s rate of $2.649, an increase of 77%. Meaning the cost of heating is going up from $1181 to $1907.

Potential Rally Remains on Tightrope

Richard Schwartz — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 13:49:00 GMT

TECHNICAL VIEW. Written Friday, August 1st, 2008: 6:30 a.m. EST

With the S&P 500 closing just above it’s week ago Wednesday’s close this past Wednesday and the Nasdaq Composite following suit, we have a series of higher lows and higher highs in both, i.e., an uptrend in place. So I was hoping for some follow through by the Dow and other indices yesterday to confirm such. But no such luck. Turned out the market couldn’t overcome more depressing, recessionary-like economic data and even oil turning down didn’t help that much. Just wonder if Mr. Market has already reached the conclusion that lower oil won’t resolve all our problems. Nah, it’s hard to believe we’ve squeezed all the bullishness and resulting rally out of lower oil just yet. The crude price continuing to drop should continue to help stocks, just looked like a breather to me yesterday. Getting back to the technical view, and Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) putting the “Bull back in the Box” after a bullish “follow-through” day after Tuesday’s big up day on higher volume, IBD always recommends watching closely in the days immediately following. So I pulled out an dog-eared IBD publication because I remember well they have a good explanation of whether a follow-through day is succeeding or not. Yep, here it is, in William O’Neil and Gil Morales’ short 2005 book HOW TO MAKE MONEY SELLING STOCKS SHORT (get yourself a copy): “In a few instances, you may have a strong follow-through day and the market will still fail. When this occurs, it usually happens rather fast and can be figured out in a few days.” [Schwartz: This latest follow through day came very late, past the 4 to 10 day normal limit.] IBD follows with this: “If the market is making very little price progress on decreased volume, or if it abruptly begins to fail badly after a sharp, one-day rally, you are probably at another short selling point, as far as the general market averages are concerned.”

Schwartz View: I was prepared to push a little more money thru the windows yesterday – not too much! -- figuring a rally was started but didn’t when I remembered the first Friday of each month we get the JOBS report. Better to wait one more day. So let’s see what the 8:30 am data brings today (although I don’t trust the data, short term traders do trade it). FLASH! Data not too bad, if one trusts it. And while yesterday wasn’t any bearish “distribution day” because of the reduced trading volume, it still looks like we could get a market failure as IBD warns us to always watch closely for. And in spite of me possibly buying a bit more today, please remember, overall, I believe a recession is here & the market will have to factor that in & move lower over the next year or so.

Updating Energy Saver's Theme

Richard Schwartz — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 13:35:00 GMT

UPDATING MY LATEST INVESTMENT THEME: ENERGY SAVER’S

I realize I should go back and update my various recommendations, especially my investment themes, more often. If you follow and buy into some of these themes you’d certainly want to see some updates.

So this morning let me update my latest theme, that of investing in companies which offer other businesses ways to save on energy use and thereby overhead and money. Last I wrote about buying these energy saving companies was to recommend: “Respecting the Bear But Nibble On Weakness.” Thus, here’s a compiled table of my recommended companies below. Some of which are obviously correcting in price as the price of crude oil moves lower. Certainly most of the below companies are NOT immune to lower oil which makes the need for their services, short term, seemingly diminish. But it gives us, those of us who believe the world, and most companies’ business models, are going to continue to move inexorably towards more efficient energy use, the opportunity to buy on weakness, the ideal way for long term investors to buy. Modeling Warren Buffett, whose key criteria is price, the lower the better, on sale, after a fire even better.

ENERGY SAVERS THEME

June 13^th 2008 Recommendations

Buy July 14^th Current

Price Price Price Chart/Business Update

CPST Capstone Turbine Corp. $3.41 3.50 3.06 Correcting from peak $4.42 on June 23^rd

BCON Beacon Power $1.72 1.30 1.29 Another in a sharp pullback, a buy opportunity

WGOV Woodward Governor $37.78 35.64 45.00 Up, up and away after a good earnings report

MXWL Maxwell Technologies $12.57 11.11 13.47 Up as companies keep buying more product

CHP C&D Tech $8.40 8.74 8.03 Correcting a big move up

June 18^th 2008 Recommendations

COMV Comverge Inc. $12.73 13.95 10.90 Fallen to support on new competition

ENOC EnerNOC, Inc. $15.65 20.74 16.14 Like COMV, pulling back on new competitors

ITRI Itron, Inc. $94.75 88.60 92.33 Earnings good; high price a bit scary

BMI Badger Meter $50.04 52.50 56.33 In uptrend; analysts 1 buy, 3 holds, 1 sell

July 15th Recommendations

July 15th

Price

ALTI Altair Nanotech $1.83 2.68 Stock taking off; earnings/news good

AMSC American Superconductor $32.15 39.49 After sharp correction, uptrend has resumed.

Disclaimer! I own a little of Altair, Beacon, Capstone, Comverge and EnerNOC and am watching the others for “buy on weakness” opportunities although I hesitate buying many/any very high priced stocks during bear markets.

Reasons For a Summer Rally

Richard Schwartz — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:22:00 GMT

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET. Written Wednesday, July 30th, 2008: 6:30 am EST.

Another ‘flashy-splashy’ rally yesterday So typical of bear markets, especially those with much further in time and points to go. Grizzly bear markets thrive on investors’ hope and adamant investor reluctance to believe things can get worse. Bear markets end when that hope is gone. Anyway, everyone jumped on board the stock market yesterday, figuring that, once again, the credit crunch is over or at least winding down. I doubt that and really doubt that the nine month bear market is over but one never knows the future for sure so we always have to keep an open mind.

A SCHWARTZ RECAP. Bulls, still fighting this bear market, did a great job of spinning (it’s always easier to spin when there is a germ of truth) that Merrill Lynch’s capital raising move yesterday and more billions in write offs showed we’re in the “end game” of this crisis. That Merrill selling some distressed assets, doing what no one has wanted to do, selling out and thus setting a low market price, about 20 cents on the dollar, for some of their CDO’s, means that everyone else may be forced to follow suit and thus that will call an end to the prevailing uncertainty. But this game doesn’t end with Merrill alone, this may just be the beginning of the end, which, as we all know, can go on seemingly interminably. And subprime write downs are now just one piece of the now larger and still spreading problem, although a big part I admit. And subprime sell offs at whatever price would have been better if done many months ago, following the old Wall Street rule which Wall Street, when pressed, totally disregarded: “The first loss is the best loss.” Not many are noting the awful details either, that Merrill is paying Temasek Holdings, a Singapore-owned SWF (no, not meaning Single White Female!), a sovereign wealth fund to buy more stock. Previously Temasek bought Merrill stock and lost a bundle. Thus in this deal Merrill is now paying Temasek a cool $2.5 billion to offset some of Temasek’s losses on that first buy. Plus Merrill is financing the deal for Temasek and this deal will increase and dilute Merrill’s outstanding shares by 36%. And, ironically, the sale of these CDO’s are at a price lower than Merrill’s just announced mark-to-market quarterly earnings report and stated value. Finally, this whole new deal flies in the face of what John Thain, Merrill’s relatively new boss, has said previously, that Mother Merrill wouldn’t need or be raising any new capital. Schwartz View: Net, net, some say Merrill is a goner, that it will have to be taken over down the road some. I don’t know any details but agree with the concept, that brokers will have to merge.

TECHNICAL VIEW. IBD PUTS THE BULL BACK IN THE BOX!

Yep, yesterday was a bullish “follow-through” day according to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD). On the 11^th day, pretty late, after the recent July 14^th bottom, a number of key market indices followed through yesterday, that is rallied more than +1.7% and on heavier trading volume than the day before. Obviously lower oil has been the underlying linchpin to this rally; oil down stocks up and vice versa. Schwartz View: My stated view is that this drop in oil will help stocks for a time, for the time it takes investors to realize that lower oil isn’t going to be the panacea for this bearish stock market. That at some point lower oil will scare the pants off investors (so to speak) because they will see lower oil as confirmation that a recession is here and spreading globally. But we’ll have to wait on this theory of mine as for now lower oil does means higher stock prices.

IBD goes on to remind us that: “Every bull market in Wall street history started with a follow-through. But not every follow-through launches a new bull market.” I believe their stats but also know IBD has put the bull back in the box and then had to take it out a few days or a week or so later a couple times during the last few months. So, remember, nothing, no particular indicator, is perfect, by any means.

More Reasons For a Rally. But I’ve also been writing that the market is oversold, that the US government has come up with a boat load of temporary fixes and props to support the stock market including the stimulus plan, unprecedented lending to non-banks and barring short selling or at least making it extremely difficult to short the financials (the SEC extended this one week ban to August 12^th yesterday). And that a historical study of the pace of declines during extended bear markets show the market is now ahead of itself on the downside. Plus I must say I am impressed by many European stock markets posting a sequence of five straight up days after an extended, inexorable, grinding-lower decline, i.e. a bullish Trader Vic 4-Day Rule and change of intermediate trend. So we could certainly have a summer rally now.

Schwartz View: Myself I’d like to see and have written that a Dow Industrials and S&P 500 close above last Wednesday’s highs would give us a series of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Well, we didn’t get quite that high a close yesterday another good day or two could do it. As for “Trader Vic’s” as easy as 1-2-3 change of trend, we have condition #1, a broken downtrend line and condition #2, a market which has stopped going down in place. We don’t have, as of yet, condition #3, that’s the higher high I’m watching for. Still, Trader Vic Sperandeo in his two excellent books from the early 1990s, get them, writes we don’t need all three, we can turn bullish with just one or two conditions met. Just be more cautious in proceeding and realize there’s always the chance for a whipsaw and have a backup plan for what you’ll do if that happens, how fast you’ll backtrack. With those caveats in mind, I put on some longs yesterday, not a lot and not terribly risky ones. Basically my theme is that as crude and other commodities correct, pressure should come off the food companies, off their raw material and input and power costs. And that at the same time these pressures diminish, food companies are successfully pushing through price increases such as mentioned by Kraft yesterday. If this summer rally holds together, say we get a new higher high by the Dow and S&P, I’ll push the envelope for short term trading purposes further.

Monday Weekly Overview Sample Letter

Richard Schwartz — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:19:00 GMT

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Monday, July 28^th, 2008: Your New Paltz, NY SUNFLOWER update: A few sunflowers have popped but I noticed the farmer’s market has alternated its plantings so any time you visit you should see some. Just spectacular!

THE BIG PICTURE

Looks like one potential US and global leader gets it. Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama, to shore up his lack of experience on the global stage, embarked on a global tour last week. And was again able to put his finger on the pulse of the world and his audience, exhibiting his knowledge of history and this particular critical point in time speaking at the historic Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. While he didn’t rock star the crowd, fine with me, it was good to see he continues his role as alienate no one, moderator showing again he understands all sides of issues and is committed to leading by example. While not denigrating any political party, say our Republicans, or country, say Old Europe. Thus there is hope that America will soon embark on a new direction, one of getting things done by bringing all parties together and then making logical and effective, not ideological, decisions, forgoing our previous path of fostering divisiveness in the world, between our two political parties and among the American people ourselves.

Schwartz View: Enough said. I always get negative feedback when treading in political waters. I do like presumptive Republican presidential nominee and American hero John McCain quite a lot but just feel we have to drastically change policies going forward, not follow a similar path. America needs to get it’s act together quickly as all long range forecasters have reached consensus, saying we’re on a downward slide, financially, politically, economically, socially. We just need to start cohesively tackling our problems.

THE ECONOMY

Numerous economists last week admitted that the US economy is weakening. Among them Brian Bethune of Global Insight, James O’Sullivan at UBS and Moody’s John Lonski. So, in spite of the US not posting two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, the old and easy definition of a recession, and one not used any longer by the National Bureau of Economic Research which calls and dates recessions but problematically many months late -- remember in today’s new globalized world we need to learn new economic relationships! -- it looks like a recession is here. And in my view is going to stay with us for quite some time. That’s because America has been moneying-over all near term problems for many, many years, thus postponing the always needed recessionary cleansing and efficientizing of the US economy, while we’ve also avoiding developing and implementing solutions to our long term ills, like our increasing oil dependency, our underfunded government pension plans, Social Security and former Fed head Alan Greenspan’s #1 concern, Medicare. America does have a bad habit of avoiding problems until they reach crisis state. Maybe that’s because our representative democracy has become so dysfunctional here in the US. I would suggest we start fixing things right there in Washington by first getting rid of lobbying which skews everything toward those with the money to get their voices heard. Even corporate America, who now realizes it’s entrapped by this self-perpetuating system, would like nothing better than to see lobbying go away as big business now has to carry and fund a large and increasingly onerous lobbying budget.

Schwartz View: All I’ve read recently has been about how there are so many inefficiencies corrupting our inherently great economic and social framework that it’s a wonder anything can get done. Such as the US having 600,000 lawyers while Japan has 15,000 (those figures were about 10 years back but obviously haven’t changed for the better). And all the broken marriages and unwed mothers costing America a fortune as well. It’s almost funny, after encouraging the rest of the world to move to free markets for decades, when the Soviet Union collapsed and showed the economic rot hidden there, the world finally started followed our recommendations. And economic success followed suit but that led to tremendous and widespread global competition, so it’s vital we get our own act together as soon as possible, to just keep up. Thus the silver lining to this current economic slowdown, a slowdown that isn’t responding to our normal response of throwing money at it, is that crisis is when change really does occur in America

THE STOCK MARKET

Stocks have again gotten ahead of themselves on the downside although not as much out of whack as at the first bottom back in mid-March. Figuring the Dow Industrials and S&P 500’s previous bull market tops were set back last October, after nine months of a bear market or at the recent July 15^th lows, we are down on average about 2.5% per month versus the historic average bear market monthly decline of 2%. So we could easily see a backing and filling trading range here and now or even a modest rally, the two normal ways bear markets correct themselves. Much government intervention has come together to force down the price of oil and thus commodities in general, prop up housing and consumer spending, keep the financial system from breaking down completely and holding interest rates way below the rate of inflation. So all this government stimulus has to go somewhere just as previous stimulus found places to bubble up. Plus new government props and controls historically have been able to put a temporary fix in place.

Still, over a period of time the stock market reflects the economy and things aren’t really getting any better there, despite Q2 GDP growth out this Thursday going to again be positive. In point of fact, the economy is continuing to get worse if one looks under the surface at signals like credit spreads, a rough definition being the difference in yield between US government bonds and non-US government guaranteed bonds, which remain wide. Or if we factor in historic trends which show that economic downturns tend to surface hidden problems which end up feeding on themselves. Today’s continuing wide credit spreads mean at some point MBIA & Ambac and Fannie & Freddie, the other 17 big financials which have also been taken off the allowed short selling list & all the other financials who’ve lost billions of dollars aren’t going to be able to hide things any longer and are going to have to really own up. So stocks remain iffy for now. And with the rug pulled out from under the remaining stock leadership in the stock market over the last two weeks, out from under energy, the energy complex and other commodities, any market rallies are going to be just technically based, say from an oversold position or short sellers being forced to cover. Sure, a rally may then feed on itself and last longer than bears think, but should ultimately roll over as data worsens.

Schwartz View: Technically then, we could be embarking on a summer rally and if so sharp traders with the courage to risk their monies in the propped up financials may be able to scalp the stock market. And other pockets of strength should or may show up (hopefully in the health sector as that is now my focus with my few longs) normally searched out and propelled along by momentum players.

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

LONG TERM PORTFOLIO STRATEGY continues to be hunkering down until this big storm passes. I expect that to be longer than most government and Wall Street economists and market strategists believe or at least publicly state. Publicly state because we all know that bearish Wal Street analysts and economists ultimately get fired and that in the aftermath of the dot.com bubble bursting, we got some theretofore hidden insight into what analysts really think. I see widely-followed, economist Nouriel Roubini, formerly holding various high level economic advisory positions in government, believes the US and European economies are now sinking as last Friday he said Wall Street was in spin mode and that financial institutions are “… manipulating at will their earnings, and analysts [are] falling for this supreme baloney.”

NEAR TERM PORTFOLIO STRATEGY depends more on whether this two-week, fledgling rally proves it has legs or not. I’m using as a key gauge whether the Dow and S&P are able to close above their last Wednesday’s closing highs, Dow 11,632.40 and S&P 1282.19. If these key indices close higher, then we will have the definition of a new up trend in place, a series of higher lows and higher highs. Strategy then will be to favor the long side but with say with no more than 50% at most market exposure. Planning on a modest summer rally for a month or two, with strategy being trying to scalp some short term profits.

AS FOR INCOME INVESTORS, we’ve all gotten used to our income fixes after 25 years of income investing being easy during a bull market in bonds, meaning just riding the trend toward lower and lower long term rates, I know it’s a struggle for you all today. My best suggestion is to watch for weakness in income sectors, say in utilities, royalty trusts and even REITs, then strike. Only move in and in a small manner AFTER a sector has just been blasted. This gives you some profit buffer as primary extended downtrends many times have sharp sell offs after disillusioned investors finally give up hope and sell, right before they rally. This can get you in at unusually good prices, at least for the near and intermediate term.

INCOME IDEAS. Thus I would currently search through the utility sector as the Dow Utility Index has just fallen a sharp -8% over the last two weeks. Or take another look at my previous July 11^th, 2008 two energy income recommendation Cross Timber Royalty Trust (CRT) and San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT), both haven tumbled hard with crude. Both go ex-dividend tomorrow, meaning today’s the last day to get in to collect the substantial August dividend (both pay monthly). Or finally, revisit my other income recommendation, back on July 10^th, 2008, of two large European pharmas, GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) paying moderate dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.8% respectively. You need to buy GSK today to be entitled to this quarter’s dividend and buy AZN soon before it goes ex-dividend (not declared yet but last year it went ex on August 8^th). Good income investing!

Have a great week!

Summer Rally Ahead?

Richard Schwartz — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:44:00 GMT

TECHNICAL VIEW. Summer Rally Ahead Or Not?

Now is the time for all good men and women to watch the key stock market indices very closely!

We have a possible bottom in place (if it is a bottom I have to believe it’s a temporary one). Yep, after basically falling out of bed for two months, from mid-May to mid-July, the stock market stopped going down a week and a half ago now. We then rallied sharply based on an accumulation of propping up moves by all parts of the US government. Then yesterday, we had the normal fall back, after any sharp move up. Now things get interesting and critical. Do we fall back and successfully retest and firm up those July 15^th lows, setting the stage for further gains and a lasting late summer rally? Or lapse into a sideways trading range, the other normal way for bear markets to correct themselves? Or do we take out those lows and thus continue the stock market slump for, say, the rest of the summer? Last I heard, #1 market guru of the past Joe Granville says that’s what’s ahead, more declines for the rest of the year.

If we do lapse back into what I’ve predicted as a “rough and rocky summer” and thus suggested it’s time to get your vacations in, then thus those of you following my advice and reading this advisory from your summer beach place or mountain vacation, please just settle in for more swimming, golfing and fly fishing for trout. Or whatever you like to do in the summer time (“when the living is easy”). My son Brian, by the by, is certainly getting to know Iowa and the heat in the summer time as he’s stationed in Iowa as a field organizer preparing for the November general election. He emails me: “Meeting lots of Iowans. Rural is rural. There is definitely a different way of life here from the city. Lots of cultural mix, county fairs.” I say “Go Brian Go! Live the dream! Hey, wonder if you’ll come home to Boston with an Iowan girl on your arm; wouldn’t doubt it.

Schwartz View: Back to point, if we do hold above the July 15^th lows and then rise above Wednesday’s closing highs, say of Dow 11,632.40 and S&P 500 1282.19, I’d suggest trading this rally. We would then have in place a successful retest of the old lows, a lower low in place. And also a higher high and thus enough technical evidence to buy (for a summer rally anyway).