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Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Have You Seen This?


Economics

   This Week’s Data

    The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers up.3% versus the prior week but fell .9% on a year over year basis;  Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales declined .9% versus the comparable time frame in 2007.

    October producer prices (PPI) dropped 2.8% versus expectations of a decrease of 1.7%; however, the core PPI rose .4% versus forecasts of a rise of only .1%.
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2008/11/dday.html#more

    October consumer prices (CPI) fell 1.0% versus forecasts of a .5% decrease, while the core CPI decline .1% versus the expectation of a .2% increase.
    http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/consumer-prices-drop-record-1-percent-in/236071

    October housing starts fell 4.5% versus estimates of a 2.5^ decline while October building permits plunged 12.0% versus expectations of a -9.3% reading--still no relief.
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/housing-starts-at-record-low.html

   Other

    More on the proposed auto bail out:
    http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/11/auto_bailout_four_no_votes.php

    Martin Feldstein’s opinion:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/17/AR2008111702917.html?sub=AR


    The other side of the auto bail out problem:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/other-side-of-bailout-story-honda.html


    More on the free trade treaty with Columbia:
    http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=311560284532957


    This article is a bit long but it is worth reading.  It addresses the issue of setting sensible goals for energy use (don’t sell your oil or coal stocks):
    http://www.american.com/archive/2008/november-december-magazine/moore2019s-curse-and-the-great-energy-delusion


    It looks like commercial real estate defaults will be the next shoe to drop:
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/11/18/commercial_real_1.html

    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/11/commercial-real-estate-troubles.html
   
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/report-two-major-commercial-mortgages.html

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/fed-delinquency-rates-rise-in-q3.html


    An unsettling note on credit’s role in international trade:
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/11/can-credit-crisis-impact-global-hunger.html


Politics

  Domestic

The secret ballot, the Senate and card check:
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/11/secret_ballot_to_decide_lieber.php


  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 8420, S&P 859) closed within their trading range (DJIA 7853--9707; S&P 839--1062).  Two points worth observing about yesterday’s performance: (1) the intraday price movement seemed like a mini version of the 11/13 sell off and rebound.  Both Averages traded down to levels close to the several lows set in this trading range, but couldn’t stay there and (2) volume picked up again--stock prices going down on low volume and up on higher volume is a positive. 

    On the other hand, the volatility index remains in the stratosphere and breadth wasn’t anything to write home about.
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/11/todays-weak-breadth.html


    Nevertheless, I think overall yesterday’s pin action was positive.

   Fundamental
   
    Third quarter earnings ‘beat’ rate:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/11/q3-earnings-beat-rate.html


          Subscriber Alert

    Yesterday, some stocks moved up to the upper end of their recent trading ranges while many of the stocks that have recently traded below their 10/10 low just haven’t shown any sign of recovering.  So today our Portfolios are going to take a little profit and sell more of the poorer performing stocks.  In the process, a little cash will be spent but will remain between 20-21%.





Posted 11-19-2008 8:29 AM by Steve Cook