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Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing


Have You Seen This?


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Have You Seen This?


   This Week’s Data

    The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers up.3% versus the prior week but fell .9% on a year over year basis;  Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales declined .9% versus the comparable time frame in 2007.

    October producer prices (PPI) dropped 2.8% versus expectations of a decrease of 1.7%; however, the core PPI rose .4% versus forecasts of a rise of only .1%.

    October consumer prices (CPI) fell 1.0% versus forecasts of a .5% decrease, while the core CPI decline .1% versus the expectation of a .2% increase.

    October housing starts fell 4.5% versus estimates of a 2.5^ decline while October building permits plunged 12.0% versus expectations of a -9.3% reading--still no relief.


    More on the proposed auto bail out:

    Martin Feldstein’s opinion:

    The other side of the auto bail out problem:

    More on the free trade treaty with Columbia:

    This article is a bit long but it is worth reading.  It addresses the issue of setting sensible goals for energy use (don’t sell your oil or coal stocks):

    It looks like commercial real estate defaults will be the next shoe to drop:



    An unsettling note on credit’s role in international trade:



The secret ballot, the Senate and card check:

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

    The indices (DJIA 8420, S&P 859) closed within their trading range (DJIA 7853--9707; S&P 839--1062).  Two points worth observing about yesterday’s performance: (1) the intraday price movement seemed like a mini version of the 11/13 sell off and rebound.  Both Averages traded down to levels close to the several lows set in this trading range, but couldn’t stay there and (2) volume picked up again--stock prices going down on low volume and up on higher volume is a positive. 

    On the other hand, the volatility index remains in the stratosphere and breadth wasn’t anything to write home about.

    Nevertheless, I think overall yesterday’s pin action was positive.

    Third quarter earnings ‘beat’ rate:

          Subscriber Alert

    Yesterday, some stocks moved up to the upper end of their recent trading ranges while many of the stocks that have recently traded below their 10/10 low just haven’t shown any sign of recovering.  So today our Portfolios are going to take a little profit and sell more of the poorer performing stocks.  In the process, a little cash will be spent but will remain between 20-21%.

Posted 11-19-2008 8:29 AM by Steve Cook