Morning Call - 12/11/08
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

Syndication

Have You Seen This?

News

  • Make money by accessing all our Portfolios, the supporting research and Price Disciplines using our paid subscription blog, Strategic Stock Invetments. Our work is focused on making money for our Portfolios not as some academic exercise in Internet investing. Check our performance (audited)--our Dividend Growth Portfolio has beaten the S&P by 500 basis points per year for the last seven years but with a beta of only .62. (Mandatory Disclaimer: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.) We give you everything you need to duplicate our results, in particular, a strict price discipline for both Buying and Selling.

Have You Seen This?



Economics

   This Week’s Data

    October wholesale inventories fell 1.1% versus expectations of a .2% decline; as aggressively as managements are cutting inventories, it was not enough because wholesale sales dropped 4.1%, driving up the wholesale inventory to sales ratio.

    Weekly mortgage applications reversed last week’s very promising increase, falling 17.4%.

    Not surprisingly, the budget deficit is soaring:
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/12/everyones-delevering-well-almost.html
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/ten-trillion-dollar-man-update.html

    Weekly jobless claims rose 58,000 versus expectations of an 11,000 rise.  Not good news.
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/initial-unemployment-claims-increases.html

   Other

    An alternative to a $500 billion infrastructure program:
    http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/12/08/friedman-cut-taxes-oped-cx_bw_rs_1209wesburystein.html
    http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/2008/12/infrastructure-spending-is-no-cure-all.html
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/spending-and-tax-multipliers.html

    And the mortgage bailout:
    http://www.ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=313719048815277

    Some interesting foreclosure statistics:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/12/without-az-ca-fl-and-nv-foreclosures.html

    The dollar, gold and future inflation:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/12/competitive-devaluation-of-us-dollar-on.html

    Update on credit crisis indicators:
Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} a:link, span.MsoHyperlink {color:blue; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {color:purple; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/credit-crisis-indicators_10.html
    
    The problem with GM:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/12/2007-profitloss-gm-vs-toyota-same-cars.html

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

    Lest we forget:
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/12/022272.php

The Market
    
    Some thoughts on performance:
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2008/12/is_average_perf.html#more

    Percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/percentage-of-stocks-above-50day-moving-averages.html

*****************************************

    Technical/Fundamental

    To be a bit repetitious with the Subscriber Alert that I sent out late yesterday:

(1)    the Averages remained above the November to present uptrend line upon which I have been focused the last couple of days; technically that is a positive.  The volatility index moved down and is currently very near its own up trend (support) line off its early November low; should it break that support line that would be a positive.  The only negative from yesterday’s trading was volume which was very low.

(2)    it looks like I am going to be wrong in assuming that congress was going to go easy on the auto companies and the UAW in forcing them to make the necessary changes required for this industry to be competitive globally.  The current proposed bill has a number of ‘sticks’ (as they are being characterized) that will ultimately (March 2009) force essential revisions in the contractual terms of the debt holders, the union and dealership agreements.  At least as I understand the terms of this agreement, those ‘sticks’ are sufficient to compel those alterations.  While this legislation is still under negotiations, it is so as a result of a threatened Senate filibuster because some view the agreement as not tough enough.  My bottom line is that if the worse thing that can happen is that this agreement, as it has been presented, becomes legislation, that is a positive.  The only thing that further negotiations with disgruntled senators can do is improve it.





Posted 12-11-2008 8:23 AM by Steve Cook

Comments

TrackBack wrote
on 10-10-2010 7:05 AM

. . . .

TrackBack wrote
on 10-10-2010 7:28 AM

. . . . . . . .

antibiotics.org wrote zithromax while breastfeeding
on 10-13-2010 12:51 PM

zithromax while breastfeeding. zithromax while breastfeeding. antibiotics.org. antibiotics.org. antibiotics.org. zithromax while breastfeeding. zithromax while breastfeeding.