Morning Call - 12/11/08
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing


Have You Seen This?


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Have You Seen This?


   This Week’s Data

    October wholesale inventories fell 1.1% versus expectations of a .2% decline; as aggressively as managements are cutting inventories, it was not enough because wholesale sales dropped 4.1%, driving up the wholesale inventory to sales ratio.

    Weekly mortgage applications reversed last week’s very promising increase, falling 17.4%.

    Not surprisingly, the budget deficit is soaring:

    Weekly jobless claims rose 58,000 versus expectations of an 11,000 rise.  Not good news.


    An alternative to a $500 billion infrastructure program:

    And the mortgage bailout:

    Some interesting foreclosure statistics:

    The dollar, gold and future inflation:

    Update on credit crisis indicators:
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    The problem with GM:



  International War Against Radical Islam

    Lest we forget:

The Market
    Some thoughts on performance:

    Percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average:



    To be a bit repetitious with the Subscriber Alert that I sent out late yesterday:

(1)    the Averages remained above the November to present uptrend line upon which I have been focused the last couple of days; technically that is a positive.  The volatility index moved down and is currently very near its own up trend (support) line off its early November low; should it break that support line that would be a positive.  The only negative from yesterday’s trading was volume which was very low.

(2)    it looks like I am going to be wrong in assuming that congress was going to go easy on the auto companies and the UAW in forcing them to make the necessary changes required for this industry to be competitive globally.  The current proposed bill has a number of ‘sticks’ (as they are being characterized) that will ultimately (March 2009) force essential revisions in the contractual terms of the debt holders, the union and dealership agreements.  At least as I understand the terms of this agreement, those ‘sticks’ are sufficient to compel those alterations.  While this legislation is still under negotiations, it is so as a result of a threatened Senate filibuster because some view the agreement as not tough enough.  My bottom line is that if the worse thing that can happen is that this agreement, as it has been presented, becomes legislation, that is a positive.  The only thing that further negotiations with disgruntled senators can do is improve it.

Posted 12-11-2008 8:23 AM by Steve Cook


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