Where's the bottom?
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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News

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Have You Seen This?

Economics

   This Week’s Data

    January personal income was reported up .4% versus expectations of a .3% decline;  most of the positive impact came from an increase in government employee pay raises.

    January personal spending was up .6% versus estimates of +.4%. ISM

    The January personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index rose .2%; the core PCE was up .1%.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/january-pce-and-personal-saving-rate.html

    January construction spending fell 3.3% versus forecasts of a 1.8% decrease.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/construction-spending-non-residential.html

    The February Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in a 35.8 versus expectations of 35.6 and 34.0 recorded in January.  Remember any reading below 50.0 denotes contraction.
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/03/ism-manufacturing-unlucky-13.html

   Other

    Being honest about budget priorities:
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MjE1YjY0OGVkNjlkN2I1MzU2YzBjMmZkMDkzYzk0Nzg=

    More perspective on the budget:
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/03/how-big-is-budget-part-ii.html

    What the AIG bailout means:   
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/aig-what-it-means/

    The congressional budget office on the stimulus plan:
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/03/cbo-on-stimulus.html

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

    The latest from the UN:
    http://www.slate.com/id/2212662/

The Market
    
    Technical

    By the close yesterday, the Averages (DJIA 6763, S&P 700) left little doubt that the 10/01 and 11/08 support levels were no longer so.  As I have pointed out, the next visible support levels are a ways as way--a thirty year uptrend line (DJIA 3554, S&P 446) and the 1994 lows (DJIA 3871, S&P 581).  It is a bit sobering to consider.

   Fundamental
   
Our investment strategy will now shift towards Portfolio weightings of 30-50% cash, gold 5-10% and the short S&P ETF 5-10%.  The transactions yesterday took our Portfolios to roughly 28% in cash, 6.5% in gold and 5% in the short S&P ETF.





Posted 03-03-2009 8:27 AM by Steve Cook