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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    Weekly unemployment claims rose 3,000 versus expectations of a 9,000 increase:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/weekly-unemployment-claims.html

   Other

    Here is the flip side of many baby boomers not being able to retire as planned:
    http://www.american.com/archive/2009/june/old-and-in-the-fray-the-coming-entrepreneurship-boom

    A positive sign from the housing market (graph):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/countrywide-reos-back-to-2007-levels.html

    Putting the bail out in perspective (graph):
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/bailout-costs-vs-big-historical-events/

    Deflation? (graph)
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/06/deflation.html

    Update on TARP repayment:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/nine-banks-repay-663-billion-in-tarp.html

Politics

  Domestic

A closer look at those 46 million uninsured:
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=479724
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/almost-4-out-of-10-uninsured-households.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

    Here is the last installment on the Mirandizing of jihadist combatants:
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjJmNjlmNjYxNWYyZDIyMWZjMTgyOTE0ZDIyZTg4MjA=&w=MA==

The Market
    
    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 8497, S&P 910) did little yesterday.  As you know, we are now looking for the Market to tell us the lower boundary of its trading range, having seemingly established its upper boundary now defined by S&P 947.  My hope is that either the 876 support level will prove to be the lower end of the trading range or stock prices will hold at an even higher level.  However, we are not going to know till the Market tells us.

    On an anecdotal basis, a large number of the stocks in our Universes closed yesterday either on the lower boundary of their March to present uptrend or on the support line represented by their February (resistance-turned-support) high (S&P equivalent 876).  If our stocks are acting as leading indicator as they have in the past, then (1) the good news scenario: if they hold these two support levels, the indices still have some room for further decline [S&P 876] or a new support area could be in the making in the current vicinity or (2) the bad news scenario: if they break below those support levels, 876 may not be where the Averages find support.
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/06/sixth-pullback-since-the-march-9th-low.html

    This morning’s thought from TraderFeed:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/06/pre-opening-briefing-continuing-trend.html

    Grist for the bears:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/stock-markets-retreat-in-store/

   Fundamental

    Apparently, foreigners still think that the US is a great place in which to invest:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/foreign-investment-in-us-businesses.html

    An (unimpressive) look at corporate profits:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/looking-at-corporate-profits/

    Headlines:

    The item dominating the news summaries and talking head analysis shows yesterday was the Obama reform program for the financial regulatory system.  However, so much had already been discussed openly that there was nothing really new for investors to digest (witness the pin action)--just a lot of arguments about this or that provision of the plan. 

Since this thing won’t likely be enacted this year, there is a lot of time to fuss over the details.  I will say one thing, of all the misguided policies (healthcare, cap and trade) that Obama is trying to load onto the US economic/social/political system, this is the least onerous (I am concerned about vesting too much power in the Fed.).  So maybe we should all hope congress focuses on financial regulatory reform and forgets about the rest.  Good luck.
       http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/obama%E2%80%99s-financial-regulatory-restructuring-is-an-%E2%80%9Cindustrial-policy%E2%80%9D/





Posted 06-18-2009 8:15 AM by Steve Cook