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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales from major retailers unchanged from the prior week and down 0.9% on a year over year basis;  Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales off 4.4% versus the same period a month ago and down 4.2% versus the comparable period a year ago.

   Other

    A broad look at employment from EF Hutton:
    http://efhutton.blogspot.com/2009/06/real-unemployment-14-million-americans.html

    And:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/continuing-claims-exhaustion-rate/

    The deflation hawks continue to press their case:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5586043/Dont-believe-the-hyperinflation-hype---dare-to-make-cuts.html

    Update on the TIPS spread (graph):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/chart-of-day-tips-derived-inflation.html

    Obama will soon be able to reshape the FOMC:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/obama-dramatically-reshape-fomc/

    A statistical comparison of 1929 and today:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/

    More bad news on commercial real estate prices:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/moodys-cre-prices-fall-86-in-april.html
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/06/cre-tttiiiiimmmmmbbbeeeerrrr.html

Politics

  Domestic

More from George Will on Obamacare:
http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/will062209.php3

   The newest tactic (deception) to push healthcare forward:
    http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2009/06/the_trojan_coop.php

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    Stocks took it on the chin yesterday though the Averages (DJIA 8339, S&P 893) remain above the 8220, 876 February high support level.  Unfortunately, the chart service to which I subscribe has been having technical problems; so I haven’t been able to do my normal chart work.  Hopefully, this gets fixed quickly.
 
    Thoughts from TraderFeed:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/06/pre-opening-briefing-after-weak-day.html

    Insider selling near highs; that’s not good news:
    http://www.businessday.com.au/business/markets/insiders-exit-shares-at-fastest-pace-in-2-years-as-market-rises-20090622-ct0q.html?page=-1
   
   Fundamental
    
As you know by mid day yesterday, I thought that stock prices had suffered enough to warrant spending about 10% of our Portfolios’ cash positions (cash went from 29% to 26%).  Prices are close enough to S&P 876 now that I intend to watch any further challenge to the 876 support level.  If it holds, our Portfolios will put additional reserves to work

        Headlines

    The focus of most media discussions yesterday was a new World Bank report that was somewhat pessimistic about global growth.  I have to tell you, I saw that report right after it was issued and didn’t think it important enough to mention or link to.  So what do I know?

    I will say that the World Bank hasn’t been right about anything it has ever forecast in the forty years I have been in the business.  So you get a flavor for why I was unimpressed by the report.  Besides the report really didn’t add any insights to the current debate about the economy; and if you think their forecast is down beat, read Nourial Roubini’s.

    Ignore this.  Investors’ mood has turned negative. 
    http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/06/world-growth-projections-moved-markets.html





Posted 06-23-2009 8:23 AM by Steve Cook
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