Just a little more patience
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

Syndication

Have You Seen This?

News

  • Make money by accessing all our Portfolios, the supporting research and Price Disciplines using our paid subscription blog, Strategic Stock Invetments. Our work is focused on making money for our Portfolios not as some academic exercise in Internet investing. Check our performance (audited)--our Dividend Growth Portfolio has beaten the S&P by 500 basis points per year for the last seven years but with a beta of only .62. (Mandatory Disclaimer: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.) We give you everything you need to duplicate our results, in particular, a strict price discipline for both Buying and Selling.

Have You Seen This?


Economics

   This Week’s Data

    The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers fell 0.9% versus the prior week and 0.6% on a year over year basis;  Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales down 0.7% versus the comparable period in July and off 4.5% versus the similar timeframe in 2008.

   Other

    An argument on why deflation is not that bad:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a_IZywsbozWg

    The rise in medical costs versus college tuition:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/08/and-you-thought-medical-care-costs-were.html

    Good news out of Asia:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/08/asian-economies-on-rebound.html

    The increasing affordability of automobiles:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/08/new-cars-more-affordable-than-ever-in.html

    The US government is subsidizing the purchase of distressed assets by the Chinese government.  Say what?
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/why-is-us-government-subsidizing-chinese-ppip/

    Pimco thinks the dollar is losing its status as a reserve currency:
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/pimco-dollar-to-fall-as-loses-reserve.html

    On the other hand:
    http://mpettis.com/2009/08/the-usg-doesn%E2%80%99t-need-foreigners-to-finance-the-us-fiscal-deficit-who-knew/

    The storage figures on oil:
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/contango_vlccs.html

Politics

  Domestic

About those healthcare ‘coops’:
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/08/17/about-those-health-care-co-ops/
    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/08/notes-on-coops.html

    Martin Feldstein on Obamacare:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204683204574358233780260914.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    Here is an interesting chart on the average performance of stocks over a decade:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/sp-decennial-charts/

    A chart of the dollar index:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/08/us-dollar-index-testing-50day-average.html

**********************************

    The indices (DJIA 9216, S&P 989) rebounded yesterday and staying well inside the boundaries of the up trend off the March lows (8696-10405, 948-1166).  Notably the VIX fell sharply and closed below the upper boundary of the down trend off its October 2008 high.

    I said in yesterday’s Morning Call about the only thing one could say about Monday’s pin action was the 1004 had provided stiff resistance.  Following yesterday’s positive performance in the face of negative news (see below),  the thing that I would say  is that there remains considerable support for stocks even above the obvious support levels.

    I would have bet that the Market would close down yesterday and give us the chance to buy below 975.  Shows you what I know.  Nevertheless, this remains a time for patience; let the Market come to us.

   Fundamental
   
    This is a great article by a sports psychologist adapting his advice to traders; but most of the points cam be applied equally to longer term investing.  Enjoy:
    http://www.thekirkreport.com/2009/08/10-rules.html

     Headlines

    Yesterday, stocks were up largely because the Asian markets rallied overnight.  US news was light:  Aside from the bobbing and weaving the administration was doing over the ‘public option’ on healthcare, the main news items were the economic stats and as I noted above, they were basically ignored.
 
(1)    the lousing housing starts number [down 1%],

(2)    continuing poor retail sales [see above],

(3)    and one positive figure--July PPI, down .9%.





Posted 08-19-2009 8:46 AM by Steve Cook