Don't chase'm at these levels: plus Monday morning chartology
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

Syndication

Have You Seen This?

News

  • Make money by accessing all our Portfolios, the supporting research and Price Disciplines using our paid subscription blog, Strategic Stock Invetments. Our work is focused on making money for our Portfolios not as some academic exercise in Internet investing. Check our performance (audited)--our Dividend Growth Portfolio has beaten the S&P by 500 basis points per year for the last seven years but with a beta of only .62. (Mandatory Disclaimer: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.) We give you everything you need to duplicate our results, in particular, a strict price discipline for both Buying and Selling.

Have You Seen This?


The Market
    
    Technical

    Two risk measures showing improvement (chart):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/09/two-market-measures-of-risk-show.html

      Tuesday Morning Chartology

    Three great days last week.  The S&P (1104) successfully tested 1042, setting that level as the lower boundary of the current trading range.  Looking at the chart below, you can see three potential resistance points: the down trend off the April 2010 high (1111), the right shoulder of the head and shoulders (1132) and the left shoulder of the same formation (1149).  Still the Averages are in their 9645-10725, 1042-1149 trading ranges with the S&P in the upper half of the trading range (1095-1147).
    Thoughts from Barry Ridholtz;
    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/09/05/ritholtz-stocks-%E2%80%93-trapped-in-a-trading-range/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail




for some reason, the site won't accept the S&P chart.  I will try to include in tomorrow's Morning Call
 


    Gold is holding its recent up trend.



 


    The VIX is testing its support level.  If it is successful, that is a positive for stocks.

 



   Fundamental
 
     
    Friday’s nonfarm payroll (actually it was the private nonfarm payroll) number boosted investor’s hope that the economy would avoid a double dip.  That is clearly a positive relative the prevailing sentiment a week ago.  However, that doesn’t mean that the economy is off to the races; last week’s pin action was one of relief that the worst case scenario may not materialize.  That has been my opinion; so the good news from our point of view is that the current trading range will hold, nothing more absent any additional positive developments (like extension of the Bush tax cuts). 

    With stock prices in the upper half of the current trading range, we now wait for a correction, hopefully to the lower quadrant of the trading range (1042-1068) before our Portfolios continue their Buying.
 
    Thoughts from David Rosenberg (short):
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/09/05/rosie-dodging-a-bullet-yes-%E2%80%93-out-of-the-woods-no/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail


Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

    Putting Friday’s jobs report in perspective (chart):
    http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-percent-job-losses-in-post-wwii-recessions-2010-9?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Clusterstock+Chart+Of+The+Day&utm_campaign=Clusterstock_COTD_090310

    The real story on tax cuts for small businesses (short):
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/09/counting-small-businesses.html

    The European bank ‘stress test’ was less than stressful (short):
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/european-stress-tests-and-more.html

    Underlining the fact that He has learned absolutely nothing during this economic down turn, over the weekend Obama announced another stimulus bill--this one for $50 billion. Supposedly the funds will be spent on infrastructure.  Anyone remember ‘shovel ready’ and how much actually got spent on those projects?
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/obama-to-propose-50-billion-in.html

Politics

  Domestic

Scott Gannis on the politics of economics (medium):
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/09/obamas-loss-is-economys-gain.html











Posted 09-07-2010 8:22 AM by Steve Cook