Don't get too jiggy just yet
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Have You Seen This?


Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

    Jim Rogers on gold and other subjects (medium):
    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/knowledge/interview-knowledge/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-on-gold-bubbles-commodites-equities-and-roubini/?p=3528/

    Tuesday morning humor:
    http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/clips/really-with-seth-and-amy/1173561/

    A comparison of unemployment in past recessions (medium):
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/1983-redux-only-if-they-make-trading-places-2/

    Not all bubbles are the same (medium-must read):
    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/11/not-all-bubbles-present-a-risk-to-the-economy.html

    The benefits of free liquidity (long):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cost-60-market-move-benefits-free-liquidity
   
Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

    On being too nonjudgmental about Major Hasan (long):
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjVmN2E4MjQwZTZkMDgyNTZiMTIxNzhjYzcxZTAxNzI=
 

The Market
    
    Technical

    The DJIA (10227) pushed through its former high.  If it holds this level for a couple of days or advances dramatically higher, it will re-set its up trend.  The S&P (1093), while it had a good day like the DJIA, it neither challenged the lower boundary of its former up trend off the March low nor the recent high (1102).  The VIX fell again and is still below the upper boundary of the old up trend off its October 2008 high; however, it has not challenged its former low.  Finally, I checked our internal indicator; and out of 161 stocks in our Universe, 44 have successfully challenged their former (October 12-19, 2009) highs, 34 closed near those highs and 83 are below the comparable high.  This is not a strong indication that stocks are going higher.

    So yesterday’s very positive performance notwithstanding, the Market remains in the no man’s land that it has inhabited for the last week or so.  That doesn’t mean equities won’t re-set their up trend, it just means that under my discipline, they haven’t done so yet.

    The dollar plunged breaking back below the former upper boundary of its down trend off the March high and closed right on its former low.  Any weakness today would set up the re-establishment of the dollar’s down trend.  In addition, while I pointed to a weakening (inverse) relationship of the dollar and stocks/gold/commodities in last weekend’s Closing Bell, it certainly didn’t seem to be unraveling yesterday.  As I said in yesterday’s Morning Call, the dollar was down big overnight following the G20’s support for easy money.  That was investors’ focus yesterday and stocks, gold and commodities were all strong.  Not to be repetitious but my focus on the dollar/stock/gold/commodities relationship has been to get a handle on what was driving stock prices.  Given yesterday’s pin action, I suppose I need to leave the ‘dollar trade’ as a candidate.

    The latest from Trader Mike:
    http://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_9_2009_stock_market_recap

    Signs the Market is overbought (short):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-price-oscillator-three-standard-deviations-mean-99-outlier-market





Posted 11-10-2009 8:30 AM by Steve Cook