I liked yeserday's pin action
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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    Weekly mortgage applications rose 4.2%. spurred by lower interest rates/rising refinancings.
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/03/record-low-mortgage-rates-boost.html

    February new home sales were up 4.6% versus expectations of a 1.9% increase; the January number was revised up 3.5%.  Finally, new home inventories fell, but not by much.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/new-home-sales-is-this-bottom.html

    Weekly initial jobless claims rose 8,000 versus estimates of a 6,000 increase; but more important, continuing claims advanced to a record high.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/unemployment-insurance-continued-claims.html
   
    Truck tonnage increased in February:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/report-truck-tonnage-increased-in.html

    Final fourth quarter gross domestic product was reported down 6.3% versus forecasts of down 6.7% and the preliminary reading of down 6.2%; the personal consumption expenditure index rose .5% in line with expectations and versus the preliminary reading of up .1%.
   
   Other

    The amazing unintended consequences of government bail out:
    http://www.nypost.com/seven/03252009/business/double_dippers_161157.htm

    A fascinating look at the history of US budget (deficits).  It is mostly eye candy and a must read:   
    http://www.mercatus.org/PublicationDetails.aspx?id=26426

    What the IMF is up to:
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/03/what-imf-is-up-to.html

    Defaults on commercial real estate loans are accelerating:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/wsj-commercial-property-faces-crisis.html
   
Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

    The surprising differences between Ramallah and American University:
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/03/023155.php

The Market
    
    Technical

    The pin action yesterday was I thought on balance pretty good.  Stocks traded up on good economic news (see above), then sold off on a Geithner verbal faux pas (agreeing with China that there should be a non dollar reserve currency), then rallied back.  What was positive about this trading pattern was that after stock prices got clocked on poor news, they recovered.  That has not been the pattern for the last six months and a sign that investor sentiment may have shifted, i.e. buyers coming in on weakness versus sellers coming in on strength.  It is just another tiny shred of evidence that the early March lows may have been the bottom. 
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/03/sp-500-passes-its-first-test-at-the-50day-moving-average.html

    On the other hand, the volatility index remains at elevated levels which to me means that there is still a lot of fear out there which suggests to me limited upside (i.e. we are in a trading market).

    The S&P (813) remains above that October 2008 to present down trend line; while the DJIA (7746) closed just below its similar down trend line.

   Fundamental
   





Posted 03-26-2009 8:43 AM by Steve Cook
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