I think that I have pushed my luck about as far as I can
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

    The increase in over time wages is a positive sign (chart):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/another-v-sign-manufacturing-overtime.html

    Bernanke’s push back against the reform efforts coming out of congress (long):
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/27/AR2009112702322.html

    And a rebuttal to that (short):
    http://cafehayek.com/2009/11/open-letter-to-ben-bernanke.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

    And the Fed just keeps on, keeping on (short):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-balance-sheet-new-record-after-11-billion-weeekly-increase-mbsagency-debt

Politics

  Domestic

Why the passage of the healthcare bill could be a good thing (medium):
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YWRmZDY0MzEyMTU5Y2NkMWMxZmEyODY0ZDA4Y2QxYmI=

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical
   
    The indices (DJIA 10309, S&P 1091) closed within an up trend off the March lows (10127-12066, 1078-1366).  However, even though the S&P traded above the 1102 level Monday thru Wednesday, it closed the week below it, leaving open the question as to whether it is in an up trend or a trading range.  The VIX closed above the down trend
off its October 2008 high, suggesting lower stock price or at least a trading range.  The dollar while wildly volatile still finished not only well within the down trend off its March high but below the prior support level, suggesting (if the inverse dollar/stock relationship holds) a lower dollar and higher stock prices.  In other words, as nerve wracking as Friday’s pin action was, the Market’s direction remains in question; though I fear that the S&P’s inability to hold above 1102 could be a sign of things to come.

    Update from TraderFeed:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/11/indicator-update-for-november-29th.html

      Monday Morning Chartology

 

 


 






   Fundamental
   

    The financial problems of Dubai World prompted the Friday sell off.  This is yet another crisis born of easy money; and I don’t see how it can be the last.  As you know one of the primary negatives in our long term economic scenario is centered on the consequences of the massive injection of liquidity into the financial system.  This appears to be another crack.  While I don’t think that the longer term implications have changed, in the first instant it appears that if Dubai World defaults, there will be a flight to safety which would mean a much stronger dollar (and if the inverse dollar/stock trade holds, lower stock prices).  I have no clue if and when this occurs and if it does how long that may last but it clearly would have implications for our investment strategy.  What we do know for sure though is that there are still problems in the financial system that have not been addressed.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-banks-less-exposed-to-dubai-than-europe-2009-11-27

    From TraderFeed:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/11/is-dubai-debacle-game-changer.html

    Early results seem to indicate a worse than expected ‘Black Friday’ (and by extension, the holiday buying season).  If the economy is having any impact on investors’ minds, this can’t be a positive.
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/consumers-cherry-pick-black-friday-sales/

    However, there does appear to be a decent increase in on line shopping:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/online-black-friday-spending-up-by-11.html






Posted 11-30-2009 8:42 AM by Steve Cook