Let's see how the Market trades on the NFP number
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing


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   This Week’s Data

    Fourth quarter productivity fell ,4% versus expectations of an increase of .8%; while unit labor costs spiked 5.7% versus estimates of a rise of 4.7%.

    January factory orders were down 1.9% versus forecasts of down 3.0% and December’s reading of down 3.9%.

    February nonfarm payrolls fell 651,000 versus expectations of a drop of 649,000--so basically in line; the accompanying unemployment rate was 8.1% versus estimates of 7.9%.


    I commented yesterday on the China stimulus plan (that never materialized).  Here is some stats on the China economy:

    Rail traffic down in February:

    Krauthammer on the budget:

    More government regulation:



More on those lower level administration appointments:

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

    Another tough day.  The indices closed at DJIA 6594, S&P 682--this in relation to the nearest visible support level DJIA 5461, S&P 592. 

    Advance/declines are also making new lows:

    Sentiment is at record lows:

    In addition to the sales our Portfolios made at yesterday’s Market opening, they also closed out their S&P short ETF position at the Market close.  I did that not because I am an aspiring bull but because I think that there was a lot of selling ahead of the employment report this morning. 

Update: As noted above, NFP was reported in line with forecasts and the futures are lifting a little.  My plan is to watch the open and first hour with the intent of doing a little more selling and buying the S&P short ETF back.  If you didn’t sell the ETF yesterday, I would do nothing at the moment.  I will likely be in touch during the day.

Posted 03-06-2009 8:20 AM by Steve Cook