The Treasury has a big auction next week; what will Ben do?
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    Nonfarm payrolls fell 345,000 in May versus expectations of a 525,000 decline--a clear improvement (less bad) from recent months where losses have exceed 500,000; the May unemployment rate rose to 9.4% versus estimates of 9.2% and 8.9% recorded in April.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/employment-report-345k-jobs-lost-94.html

   Other

    More on the GM bailout from Mickey Kaus:
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/kausfiles/archive/2009/06/04/gm-s-orwellian-work-rules-gone-really.aspx

    And:
    http://www.cafehayek.com/hayek/2009/06/insulting-theater.html

    Remember the $787 billion stimulus bill.  How much good do you suppose it is doing?
    http://keithhennessey.com/2009/06/03/will-the-stimulus-come-too-late/

    A bear’s look at the economy (must read):
    http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421
    
    30 year mortgage rates in historical perspective (graph):
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/06/30year-mortgage-rates.html

    Default risk continues to decline (graph):
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/06/default-risk-continues-its-decline.html

Politics

  Domestic

The Congressional Budget Office (no conservative bastion) response to the Obama healthcare plan:
http://www.american.com/archive/2009/june/shooting-the-messenger-cbo-in-the-crosshairs

    And:
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/06/whats-point-of-public-option.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

    Obama in the Middle East:
    http://www.slate.com/id/2219706/pagenum/all

    And, of course, his Cairo speech:
    http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=009a9e96-37c7-4180-b4b6-b4fc8b935528

The Market
    
    Technical
    
    The Averages (DJIA 8750, S&P 942) closed yesterday above the lower boundary (8426, 913) of the re-set uptrend off the March lows but still below their January resistance level (9078, 947).  Volume was low and the VIX stayed above 30.  Uptrend or trading range? 

   Fundamental
    
    Headlines:

    The Treasury announced its auction schedule for next week--they will be selling a smooth $110 billion in notes and bills about $50 billion of which is new money.  I include this in the Headlines section because it relates directly to our ongoing discussion about the mounting Federal deficit, its consequences and its cures.  Recall yesterday Bernanke stated in congressional testimony that the Fed would not be monetizing the deficit.  Watch their actions during this funding.
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NjcyNmE5MzAxNWFkOTUzN2E4NTE4MDRkZDY1MGEzNmM=
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e9dadca-5057-11de-9530-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1






Posted 06-05-2009 8:27 AM by Steve Cook
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