Waiting for 2:15
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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    May existing home sales rose 2.4% though that was slightly less than estimates.  Nevertheless, it was the second increase in as many months and that is a positive.  In addition, the inventory of unsold homes declined.
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/existing-home-sales-median-prices.html

    On the other hand, as Barry Ridholtz points out, seasonally one would expect sales to be up from April to May; the year over year number is probably more significant:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/seasonal-homes-sales-trend/
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/existing-homes-sales-fall-36/

    Weekly mortgage applications jumped 7%.
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/mba-mortgage-rates-decrease-slightly.html

   Other

    Green shoots from the Richmond Fed:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/richmond-fed-index-rally-suggests-econ.html

    And from the Economic Cycle Research Institute:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/ecri-recession-likely-over-by-end-of.html

Politics

  Domestic

‘Cap and trade’ is out of committee and could come to a vote in the House as early as this week.  Below is some analysis of the bill.

Problems with ‘cap and trade’:
http://www.american.com/archive/2009/june/offsets-chipping-away-at-the-cap
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/06/023883.php

The economic affects of ‘cap and trade’:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/wm2476.cfm


  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 8322, S&P 895) rested yesterday, closing in a trading defined (I think) by an upper boundary of 9078, 947.  It is now in the process of setting a lower boundary which I hope will fall in the proximity of S&P 876.

    Volume has been light; the volatility index remains in a short term down trend (positive); and most of the volume and breadth indicators were slightly negative.
      
    Out of 98 stocks owned in our Portfolios:

    35  remain above the lower boundary of their uptrend off the March low
    56  have traded out of the March to present uptrend but have established a                      
               trading range and remain within it
     7   are in clear down trends

    These numbers don’t suggest any hidden weakness; so my downside target for the recent decline remains circa S&P 876,

   Fundamental
   

      Headlines:

Most of yesterday’s investor focus was on the Fed meeting [yesterday and today] and the language that will accompany its decision on interest rates.  The lack of any pin action suggest everyone is sitting on their hands till the release of Fed statement this afternoon; that likely means a dull day at least till the news release (2:15PM EST).





Posted 06-24-2009 8:15 AM by Steve Cook