Steve Cook's Strategic Stock Investments

Review of Erie Indemnity (High Yield Universe)

Steve Cook — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 13:40:00 GMT

Company Highlight

    Erie Indemnity Company offers property casualty insurance including automobile, homeowners and commercial multi peril, automobile and worker’s compensation insurance. Over the last ten years, the company has grown profits at 6%+ rate but dividends at a 15% rate generating an 18-20% return on equity. The last two years have been difficult for ERIE, but earnings should improve this year as a result of:

(1)    growth in the number of agents should lead to top line advances,

(2)    rate increases and a lower loss climate,

(3)    narrowing losses from limited partnerships,

High cash flow, no debt and a conservative policy portfolio should allow a continuing above average growth in its dividend. The company is rated B++ and its stock yields 4.8%

    Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
       Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2000

ERIE          4.8%          4%               58              10
Ind Ave      2.6             5                  22              NA

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
       Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

ERIE         0%             19%            3                  6%           B++
Ind Ave     17              15              NA                5             NA

   Chart

    Note: ERIE stock has made plodding progress off its March 2009 low, eventually surmounting the down trend off its September 2007 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ERIE
3/10

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Pepsico (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) increased its annual dividend per share from $1.75 to $1.92 and announced a $15 billion stock repurchase program.

Subscriber Alert; Review of Chevron (Dividend Growt Portfolio)

Steve Cook — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 14:32:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    With the indices moving into the upper end of their trading range, our Portfolios are going to take the occasion to Sell the shares of Alcon (Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios), Zenith National Insurance (High Yield Portfolio) and Smith Int’l (Aggressive Growth Portfolio). As you know, these companies are all being acquired, so some action will be required in the near future anyway. This seems the correct time to convert these holdings to cash and await more attractive prices for other stocks we want to own.

    A portion of the funds received will be used to Add to the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios’ holding of Qualcomm. QCOM stock has been whacked following a disappointing fourth quarter earnings report and is now trading in its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Buy Lists and sufficient shares Bought to bring these to full positions. Incidentally, last night the company raised its dividend and announced a large stock buy back.

Company Highlight

Chevron is the world’s fourth largest oil company based on proven reserves. The company has grown its profits at a 15% annual rate over the last 10 years while earning a 15-20% return on equity. The dividend growth rate has not kept pace with profits; but the gap in the rate of increase has been closing. Earnings faltered in 2009 as a result of the global economic slowdown; however, CVX should return to an attractive growth rate in 2010 because:

(1) improving oil prices,

(2) rising exports,

(3) the company has a number of very promising exploration projects that will grow its reserves. They include deep water production in the Gulf of Mexico as well as fields in Brazil, Angola and Nigeria. major new refinery.

Chevron is rated A++ by Value Line, has a low 11% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields approximately 3.4%.

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
         Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2000

CVX           3.4%         5%                35%              10
Ind Ave       3.2            7                   42                NA

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
       Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

CVX          11%           17%           3                  7%            A++
Ind Ave      19              17             NA                7             NA

   Chart

    Note: CVX stock had made good progress off the March 2009 low, surmounting the down trend off its March 2008 high (red line). It also managed to challenge its November 2008 trading high (green line) but couldn’t hold above it. The blue line at the top of the chart is the lower boundary of an up trend dating back to 1988.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CVX
3/10

Subscriber Alert-3/1/10

Steve Cook — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:32:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Monsanto (MON-$71) has traded into its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio already owns MON though not a full position. No shares will be purchased at this time.

Review of Commerce Bancshares (Dividend Growth Universe): Report on Amphenol

Steve Cook — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 14:37:00 GMT

Commerce Bancshares engages in banking, mortgage lending, credit related insurance, venture capital a real estate activities at 370 locations in Missouri, Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado. CBSH has grown profits and dividends at an 8-10% rate over the last 10 years earning a 10-15% return on equity. This company stumbled in the 2008-2009 period as did most banks. However, profits should rebound in 2010 and regain their previous growth rate because:

(1)    its disciplined growth strategy which includes emphasizing its core fee business, maintaining tight expense control, preserving its strong capital position and strict risk management,

(2)    a significant stock buy back program,

(3)    acquisitions.

CBSH is rated A by Value Line, has a 40% debt to equity ratio, has raised its dividend every year for the last 40 years and its stock yields 2.3%

     Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
          Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2000

CBSH         2.3%         9%                38%              10
Ind Ave       2.2            4                   35                NA

                Debt/                    EPS Down       Net        Value Line
           Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

CBSH        40%           11%           3                 NA             A
Ind Ave      65               5             NA               NA             NA

   Chart

    Note: CBSH stock has progressed steadily off its March 2009 low and remains firmly in that up trend. It has managed to successfully challenge the down trend off its October 2008 high (red line) but has been unable to trade above the November 2008 trading high (green line).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CBSH
2/10

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Positive comments on Amphenol (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) from Zacks:

Amphenol (APH - Analyst Report) is another way to play the growth in the use of mobile devices.

Company Description

Amphenol is one of the largest manufacturers of interconnect products in the world. The company designs, manufactures and markets electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors, coaxial and flat-ribbon cable, and interconnect systems. The primary end markets for the company's products are communications and information processing markets.

Growth Driven by Mobile Devices

Amphenol provides a broad range of components with presence on more than 50% of the world's annual mobile phone production. Amphenol manufactures essentially all of the interconnect devices found in mobile phones, PDAs and other mobile devices.
The company indicated that its end markets continue to show improvement, and that it is well-positioned to gain market share. Amphenol’s long-term growth prospects are solid because the demand for mobile devices remains strong.

Fourth-Quarter Results

On January 21, the company reported fourth-quarter sales of $758.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, roughly flat on a year-over-year basis but up 6% sequentially. Earnings per share came in at $0.52, easily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.49.

The company also announced that it will pay $0.015 per share dividend on or about April 7 to shareholders of record as of March 17.

For the first quarter, Amphenol expects to report sales between $735 million and $750 million and EPS of $0.49 to $0.51. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is $0.51 per share.

Earnings Estimates Moving Higher

Analysts remain bullish on Amphenol. In the last 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2010 has increased from $2.11 to $2.22, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2011 is up from $2.37 to $2.55.

Review of Best Buy (Aggressive Growth Universe)

Steve Cook — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 21:14:00 GMT

Best Buy Company sells consumer electronics, personal computers, software and appliances through 1150 stores in the US and Canada. The company has grown profits in excess of 25% over the last 10 years and its annual dividend from $.27 in 2003 to an expected $.60 in 2010. It has earned a return on equity 20%+ since 1999. BBY stumbled a bit in 2008 as the economy softened. However, it has bounced back since then and should continue to grow as a result of:

(1)    continued increases in market share due to its dominant industry position and acquisitions,

(2)    each store’s merchandizing is tailored to needs of its local customers,

(3)    direct sourcing to the manufacturers allows it to lower product costs and achieve supply chain efficiencies,

BBY is rated A by Value Line, has a 27% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.5%.

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
       Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2000

BBY          1.5%         8%                18%              6
Ind Ave       1.0            6                   27                NA

                Debt/                   EPS Down       Net        Value Line
        Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

BBY          27%           21%           1                 3%           A
Ind Ave      27              15             NA               4             NA

   Chart

    Note: BBY stock rebounded nicely off the March 2009 low and ultimately successfully challenged the November 2008 trading high (green line). However, it attempted to break above the down trend off BBY’s October 2006 high (red line) but was unable to do so. In addition, it fell out of the March to present up trend, but stabilized and has since broke above the January to present down trend. The straight blue line is the lower boundary of an up trend dating from 1991. The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BBY

2/10

Subscriber Alert and Review of Eaton (Dividend Growth Universe)

Steve Cook — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 14:41:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    The stock prices of Genuine Parts (GPC) and Emerson Electric (EMR) has risen above the upper boundary of their Buy Value Range. Hence, they are being Removed from the Dividend Growth and High Yield Buy Lists. Both Portfolios will continue to Hold these stocks.

    The stock price of Hormel (HRL) has entered its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. The Dividend Growth Portfolio will not Buy any HRL at this time.

     Company Highlight

    Eaton Corp is a global manufacturer of highly engineered products, including hydraulic and fluid connectors, electric power distribution and control equipment, truck drive train and engine components, for the industrial, vehicle, construction, commercial and aerospace markets. The company has grown profits and dividends 9-11% annually for the past 10 years, earning a 15-20%+ return on equity. ETN suffered in the latest economic downturn along with most industrial companies. 2010 should put the company’s earnings growth back on track because:

(1) the company is considered a market leader in virtually every market segment it serves,

(2) its aggressive acquisitions strategy which it uses to complement or expand its businesses. Last year in completed the acquisition of Micro Innovation Holding AG and entered into a joint venture in the Middle East power generation and industrial markets,

(3) its financial strength gives it easy access to the credit markets and hence allows it to grow unimpeded.

Eaton is rated A+ by Value Line, carries a 33% debt to equity ratio and its stock provides a 3% yield.

Statistical Summary

              Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
            Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2000

ETN          3.0%          10%              49%              7
Ind Ave      1.9              4                 25                NA

                Debt/                   EPS Down       Net        Value Line
          Equity        ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

ETN         33%            12%           2                  6%           A+
Ind Ave     48               10             NA                3             NA

    Chart

Note: ETN stock recovered nicely off its March 2009 low, successfully challenging the down trend off its June 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). Recently it broke the March 2009 to present up trend, but soon found support and has since rebounded. The blue lines are the boundaries of a long term up trend dating back to 1982. The wiggly red line is the 30 day moving average

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ETN
2/10

Subscriber Alert; Review of Linear Technologies (Dividend Growth Portfolio)

Steve Cook — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 14:37:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    The stock price of Genuine Parts (GPC-$38) has traded below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it has been Added to the Dividend Growth and High Yield Buy Lists. Both Portfolios already own this stock, though neither are full positions. However, no additional shares will be Bought at this time.

    The stock prices of Quality Systems (QSII-$51), Donaldson Co (DCI-$39) and Suncor Energy (SU-$29) have traded below the upper boundary of their respective Buy Value Ranges. Therefore, they are being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns all these stocks, though none are full positions. However, no additional shares will be Bought at this time.

     Company Highlight

    Linear Technology designs and manufacturers high end linear chips which monitor, amplify or transform continuous analog signals associated with real world phenomena (temperature, pressure, weight, position, light, sound and speed) and markets them in over 4,700 products. The company has grown profits and dividends between 12-20% annually over the past 10 years earning in excess of a 20% return on equity. LLTC has suffered in the recent economic downturn; however, it should be able to resume earnings growth because:

(1) it has one of the most efficient business models in the technology sector, generating operating margins of about 50% and consistent free cash flow,

(2) it has an outstanding analog design engineering team; this is critical as the rate of miniaturization and usage increases in the industrial market which does not possess analog expertise,

(3) its products are customized (meaning there is a large upfront design cost which acts as a barrier to entry), they have longer life cycles and carry higher margins,

(4) while avoiding lower margin consumer products, it offers significant product breadth in multiple industrial segments which in aggregate are expected to produce strong annual sales growth,

(5) an aggressive cost control effort.

LLTC is rated B++ by Value Line, has a 72% debt to equity ratio (a result of an acquisition, it is being paid down rapidly) and its stock yields 2.9%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
       Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2000

LLTC        2.9%         8%                72%              10
Ind Ave      2.4            9*                 50                NA

                Debt/                    EPS Down       Net        Value Line
          Equity         ROC      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

LLTC       70%            25%           3                27%           B++
Ind Ave     19               14             NA              14             NA

*most companies in LLTC’s industry don’t pay a dividend

Chart

Note: LLTC stock made its low in November 2008 and has been in an up trend (straight blue lines are the upper and lower boundary) since then; in the process it has surpassed the down trend off its May 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). I plotted a shorter term up trend off a May low which it has violated; however, it has built a support base (orange line) and subsequently traded out of the very short term down trend off the January 2010 high.



http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LLTC
2/10

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    The Buckle (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) announced a $1.80 special dividend.

    Sigma Aldrich (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $.75 versus expectations of $.73.

Subscriber alert-2/1/10

Steve Cook — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 13:24:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    At the open this morning, our Portfolios returning to 25% cash position. The reason--the technical breakdown on Friday. The sell candidates are the largest positions. Only a small portion (100-200 shares) is being Sold in each position.

    In the Dividend Growth Portfolio: Praxair (PX), Canadian Nat’l RR (CNI)

    In the High Yield Portfolio: Leggett & Platt (LEG)

    In the Aggressive Growth Portfolio: Reliance Steel (RS), Bucyrus Int’l (BUCY), Donaldson (DCI), Sun Hydraulics (SNHY), Microsoft (MSFT)

Subscriber Alert-1/29/10

Steve Cook — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:35:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    The stock prices of ExxonMobil and Qualcomm have fallen below the lower boundary of their respective Buy Value Ranges. Accordingly they are being Removed from the Dividend Growth Buy List (and in the case of QCOM also the Aggressive Growth Buy List). Both stocks remain above their Stop Loss Prices, so no action will be taken at this time.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    More fourth quarter earnings per share reports:

           Reported        Expected

CR Bard $1.39            $1.34
Federated Investors        .51               .53
Eli Lilly        .91               .92
3M              1.30            1,21

Subscriber Alert; Review of EOG Resources (Aggressve Growth Portfolio)

Steve Cook — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 14:36:00 GMT

Subscriber Alert

    The stock price of CME Group (Dividend Growth & Aggressive Growth Portfolios) has fallen below the lower boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly it is being Removed for the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Buy Lists. The stock price remains above its Stop Loss Price; however, both Portfolios will Sell 20% of their holding at the Market open.

      Company Highlight

    EOG Resources Inc engages in the exploration, development and production of natural gas and crude oil primarily in the US and Canada. The company has grown profits and dividends at a 20%+ rate over the last ten years while earning a 9-20% return on equity. EOG suffered along with most energy related companies in the recent economic downturn. However, management expects results in 2010 to improve and put the company back on a course of rising profits and dividends.

    The company has developed considerable expertise in horizontal drilling, allowing it reap the benefits from accessing difficult to produce but rich oil and liquids reservoirs. Production should rise in 2010 as the EOG increases the number of wells it expects to drill in the Fort Worth Barnett combo play, the Bakken shale (North Dakota) and the Waskada Oil Field (Canada).

    EOG is rated A by Value Line, carries a 22% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 0.7%.

       Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
          Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2000

EOG          0.7%         13%               18%              8
Ind Ave      1.4             5                 20                NA

                Debt/                    EPS Down       Net        Value Line
           Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

EOG          22%           14%           5                17%           A
Ind Ave      33              12             NA              15             NA

Chart

Note: EOG stock has steadily risen since the March 2009 low, surpassing the down trend off its May 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). This rising blue line is the lower boundary of an up trend dating back to 1999. The wiggly red line is the 30 day moving average.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EOG
01/10

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Nucor (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $.18 versus expectations of $.07 and $.34 recorded in last year’s fourth quarter.

    Johnson & Johnson (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported fourth quarter operating earnings per share of $1.02 versus estimates of $.97 and $.97 reported in the 2008 fourth quarter.

    Other quarterly earnings per share reports:

    Canadian Nat’l RR (Dividend Growth Portfolio) $.84 versus expectations of $.87.
    Grainger (WW) (Dividend Growth Portfolio) $1.39 versus expectations of $1.23.
    Sherwin Williams (Dividend Growth Portfolio) $.71 versus expectations of $.53.

Review of Coca Cola (Dividend Growth and High Yield Portfolios)

Steve Cook — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 18:13:00 GMT

Coca Cola (KO) is the world’s largest beverage company distributing Coca Cola, Sprite, Barq’s, Mr. Pibb, Fresca, Dasani, Evian, Danone, Powerade and Minute Maid. The company has grown profits and dividends 7-9% for the past 10 years earning a 27-30% return on equity. We expect that trend to continue with:

(1) new product development in both carbonated and noncarbonated beverages,

(2) acquisitions particularly in the noncarbonated ‘lifestyle’ categories such as energy drinks, enhanced water, green tea and coffee,

(3) management aggressive effort to improve productivity,

(4) geographic expansion especially in emerging market countries [Russia, Brazil, China],

KO is rated A++ by Value Line, has a 17% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 3.3% and has been raised for 46 consecutive years.

    Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
          Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2000

KO            3.3%          7%               55%              10
Ind Ave     2.4              8*                44                NA

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
       Equity         ROE      Since 2000      Margin       Rating

KO           17%            27%            0                23%           A++
Ind Ave     44               22             NA              11             NA

*many companies in KO industry do not pay dividends

Chart

Note: Until recently, KO made steady progress off its March 2009 low successfully challenging both its down trend off its January 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). However, in early January, it broke its March 2009 to present uptrend and an initial short term support level and has remained in a very short term downtrend (orange line)--clearly not a positive sign for near term performance. The wiggly red line is the 30 day moving average.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KO
01/10

Review of TJX (Aggressive Growth Universe)

Steve Cook — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:42:00 GMT

TJX Companies is a leading off-price retailer of clothing and home fashions. The company has grown profits and dividends at a 15-18% pace over the past ten years earning a 30%+ return on equity. TJX should continue this performance because:

(1) the current economic environment is beneficial to its steady growth, strong margin business model,

(a) struggling department stores offer a wider and higher quality variety of merchandise for the company to purchase,

(b) this stronger assortment of goods brings in new customers that are trading down from high priced retailer.

(2) geographic expansion. Currently, there are no major off price, brand apparel companies in Europe,

(3) introduction of new retailing concepts, such as The Cube, Runaway and Mega Shoe Shop

(4) an aggressive stock repurchase program. Management estimates that it will buy back $1 billion in stock this year.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
           Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 1999

TJX           1.2%         13%              18%              10
Ind Ave      1.5             7                   27                NA

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
       Equity         ROE      Since 1999      Margin       Rating

TJX          30%            43%            1                 11%         A+
Ind Ave     22               15             NA                 4           NA

Chart

        Note: TJX stock has been a stellar performer off the March lows though it has lost some momentum of late. It has not only successfully challenged the down trend off its August 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 (green line) trading high but has surpassed its August 2008 high. The straight blue lines are the boundaries of an up trend dating back to 2003. The wiggly blue line is on balance volume

TJX is rated A+ by Value Line, has a 30% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.2%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TJX
12/09

Review of Stryker (Aggressive Growth Universe)

Steve Cook — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:34:00 GMT

Stryker Corp develops, manufactures and markets orthopedic implants for the hip, knee, spinal and craniomaxilofacial needs as well as power instruments, endoscopic systems and other operating room devices. The company has grown profits and dividends at a 20%+ annual rate for the past 10 years earning an 18-19% return on equity. SYK should maintain this record as a result of:

(1) strong demographic trends, i.e. the a rapidly growing older segment of the population,

(2) an extensive and well diversified product line,

(3) an active acquisition program [three are expected in the next six months].

SYK is rated A++ by Value Line, has no debt, is in the midst of a $750 million share buy back program and its stock yields 1.2%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
         Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 1999

SYK           1.2%         22%              18%             9
Ind Ave      1.5             11                26               NA

                Debt/                    EPS Down       Net        Value Line
           Equity         ROE      Since 1999      Margin       Rating

SYK           0%            19%            0                 30%          A++
Ind Ave      23              26             NA                 8            NA

      Chart

    Note: SYK is in a solid up trend off its March low, but hasn’t even attempted to challenge either the down trend off its December 2007 high (red line) or the November 2008 trading high (green line). The blue line is the lower boundary of a trading range dating back to 2004. The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SYK
12/09

Review of Ross Stores (Aggressive Growth Universe)

Steve Cook — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:27:00 GMT

Ross Stores operates a chain of off price retail stores offering high quality, in season name brand and designer apparel, shoes, cosmetics, accessories, fragrances, linens and home merchandise at discounts of 20-50% below mainstream retailers. The company has grown profits and dividends at a 14-20% annual rate over the past 10 years, earning a 25%+ return on equity. While current retail environment is anything but robust, ROST’s off price business model should produce above average results because:

(1) with full price retailers struggling, it benefits from an increased supply of name brands,

(2) its ability to deliver name brand merchandise at steep discounts should spur sales in the current economic environment,

(3) it is focused on strict inventory management giving it flexibility to take advantage of close outs, raises its merchandise turn and reduces markdowns,

(4) it has begun implementing a program of increased local control over merchandise allowing each store to carry goods most sought after by local customers,

(5) the company’s solid balance sheet and cash flow should allow it to reduce share outstanding by over 15% in the next three to five years.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
           Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 1999

ROST         1.1%         16%              15%             10
Ind Ave       1.5             7                 27                NA

                  Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
           Equity         ROE      Since 1999      Margin       Rating

ROST        12%           35%            2                 25%         A
Ind Ave      22              15             NA                 4           NA

Chart

Note: ROST has been a spectacular performer since the March lows. It has traded well above the upper boundary of a long term up trend (straight blue lines) dating from November 2005. Not coincidentally it also traded above its Sell Half Price and the Aggressive Growth Portfolio Sold this position. While it remains well above the November 2008 trading high (green line), it has fallen below the lower boundary of the trend off the March low. The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.

Ross Stores is rated A by Value Line, carries a 12% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.1%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ROST
12/09

Review of Monsanto (Aggressive Growth Portfolio)

Steve Cook — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:41:00 GMT

Monsanto is a supplier of technology based solutions and agricultural products to growers. It has grown profits and dividends 15-20% over the past five years earning between 10% and 20% return on equity. The economic slowdown accompanied by softening demand and lower grain prices has led to a 50% reduction in MON’s stock price. While these factors will impact earning growth near term, the longer term outlook is still promising because:

(1) underlying demand for products that improve profitability remains strong,

(2) new product introductions, most recently RoundupReady 2 Yield and SmartStax have contributed to increased demand,

(3) new regulatory approval of existing products from such countries as Brazil, China and Japan,

(4) acquisitions,

(5) an aggressive cost cutting program.

MON is rated A by Value Line, has a 14% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.6%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases
          Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 1999

MON          1.6%         12%              28%             6
Ind Ave       2.1             3                 48               NA

                Debt/                    EPS Down       Net        Value Line
        Equity         ROE      Since 1999      Margin       Rating

MON         14%           18%            1                 18%         A
Ind Ave      23              18             NA                10           NA

      Chart

    Note: MON has basically been in a trading range since March. By moving sideways long enough, it has traded out of its down trend off the June 2008 high (red line). But it has never really challenged the November 2008 trading high (green line). The wiggly red line is the 30 day moving average.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MON
12/09


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Staples (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported third quarter earnings per share of $.39 versus expectations of $.38 and $.22 recorded in the comparable 2008 quarter.

    This for Zack’s on NuSkin Enterprises:

Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS - Snapshot Report) recently hiked its earnings outlook and analysts followed suit. Shares of NUS continue to outpace the market, trading near a 52-week high. The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share.

Company Description

Nu Skin Enterprises is a $1 billion direct selling company that markets and distributes premium quality personal care, nutrition and technology products through a global network of more than 750,000 active independent distributors and preferred customers. The company operates three core brands, Nu Skin, Pharmanex, and Big Planet.

The Nu Skin brand has a line of more than 100 premium skin treatment and other personal care products. With a team of more than 100 in-house scientists, Pharmanex uses a pharmaceutical approach that is setting the standard for the dietary supplement industry. Big Planet brings the benefits of technology to everyone with innovative products like Maxvault, a line of products that provide the easiest way to preserve, organize, share, and enjoy your photos and home movies.

Nu Skin Enterprises operates in 48 international markets across the Americas, the Asia Pacific region and Europe, with more than 75 percent of revenue coming from Asia.

Bullish Forecasts

The company recently hiked its earnings outlook and analysts followed suit. Nu Skin sees fourth-quarter earnings ranging between 38 and 40 cents. Analysts polled by Zacks are calling for 40 cents, up from last month's 35 cents.

For 2009, Nu Skin's outlook ranges between $1.43 and $1.45 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $1.45, an increase from the previous month's $1.40.

For the following year, Nu Skin's guidance ranges between $1.60 and $1.70 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.70 is above the month-prior $1.61.

Strong Momentum

Shares of NUS continue to outpace the market, trading near a 52-week high. During the past year, NUS has more than tripled the market's return. In the last 3 months alone, shares surged by more than 50%, while the S&P 500 was up barely 10%.

Rewarding Shareholders

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share, which will be paid out on December 9 to shareholders of record as of November 27.

Nu Skin offers an industry-leading dividend yield of 1.7%.

A Record Quarter

The company saw record results for the third quarter. Earnings per share of 41 cents topped the previous year’s 26 cents and matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenue was a record $334.2 million, an increase of 8% year-over-year.