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Longtime readers know how much I respect and rely on the Gavekal group for thought-provoking research. They have a truly unique organization, one in which even junior analysts can question conventional wisdom and ask uncomfortable questions. Moreover, they aren’t afraid to let the world (or at...
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IN THIS ISSUE 1. Is China’s Economy in Trouble? The Answer is Maybe 2. China’s “Fifth Plenum” Gathering in Beijing This Week 3. Fed Lift-off: Not Tomorrow, December Move Still Uncertain 4. Advance 3Q GDP Report Expected to Disappoint on Thursday 5. Is America Still #1 in the World...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. August Unemployment Rate Fell to Seven-Year Low 2. US Economic Outlook For the Second Half of 2015 3. Inflation Still Running Well Below the Fed’s 2% Target 4. Stronger Dollar Could Hamper Growth This Year & Next 5. New China Economic Data Point to Further Slowdown 6. Fed...
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“The one thing I know for sure about China is, I will never know China. It's too big, too old, too diverse, too deep. There's simply not enough time.” – Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Another Ho-Hum, Disappointing Jobs Report For June 2. June Consumer Confidence Was Up More Than Expected 3. Gallup Job Creation Index at Record High May/June 4. China’s Stock Markets Imploded Over the Last Month 5. Editorial: China’s Big, Misguided Stock Market Gamble Overview...
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For the last four years, I have been highlighting the idea that when Beijing floats the renminbi, the currency may go down, not up, which is the exact opposite of what those who accuse China of currency manipulation believe would happen. I had this very argument with Lindsey Graham two weeks ago at a...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Economic Reports Suggest a Sluggish Second Quarter 2. China Became the World’s Largest Economy in 2014 3. Comparing Different Economies by Purchasing-Power Parity 4. Should Americans Fear an Economic Crash in China? Overview For the first time in history, the People’s Republic...
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Seven Significant Events for the Next Five Years Sayonara or Pour Me Some More Sake Europe: A Ticking Time Bomb China Enters a 12-Step Program for Debtaholics Cincinnati, the Cayman Islands, Zurich, and Florida It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is...
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Transformation or Bust, China Version Becoming a Developed Economy The Four Eras of Chinese Growth & Development Mini-Stimulus & Third Plenum Progress Report A Few Final Thoughts Montana, San Antonio, DC, Barefoot, and Boston China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even...
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.........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor.......... WHY RUSH INTO METALS WHEN YOU CAN WALTZ? The rarity of precious metals helps drive their value and potential significance to your portfolio. But for those not interested in making a mad rush to metals, EverBank has unearthed an exciting and equally...
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Can Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle? Like Every Other Investment-Driven Growth “Miracle” Which Way to Sustainable Growth? What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Cross the River By Feeling the Stones A Final Special Note Trequanda, Rome, Nantucket, New York, and Maine For years...
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More Questions Than Answers Read the Tea Leaves Carefully & Expect Miscues Pulling Back the Bamboo Curtain China Beige Book, Regional Overview China Beige Book, Research Highlights Growth Is Slowing But Not Collapsing (So Far…) Trequanda, Nantucket, New York, and Maine I am writing this introductory...
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Winter was the slow season on my family's farm, so I worked as a bus boy at a local Chinese restaurant when I was in high school. It wasn't an easy job -- but it was a hundred times easier than working for my demanding father. Even better, it paid several times more than what my parents paid...